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BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW 2009
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AGENDA * F/X Rate: 1,85 Company Overview Brazilian Real Estate Market Evolution Brazilian Real Estate Office - Market Overview Investment Cases - Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo Real Estate Market - Challenges and Opportunities
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Bueno Netto With over 30 years of experience, Focused on urban transformation, homebuilding and development. Over 25 projects in the pipeline and a construction portfolio adding up to approximately US$1,5 billion. Company Partners MaxCap/Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) MaxCap is a leading Brazilian real estate investment management company, MaxCap has five partners, who together, acquiring or developing real estate investments totaling over US$3 billion. BAML’s Global Real Estate Principal Investments group has invested US$8.2 billion in real estate and real estate related assets in North and South America since 2003 * F/X Rate: 1,85
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BNCORP Created in mid 2008, leveraging Bueno Netto´s track record in the sector Combining with the strategic vision and financial management of MaxCap and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, A leading position in a segment with no dedicated players - FOCUS Five projects “under development” with potential sales value of more than US$320 million, and A development pipeline of corporate buildings, office suites and mixed-use projects of US$500 million.
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Sample Projects CORPORATE BUILDING Company Business RETROFIT PROJECTS CONDOS OFFICE BUILDINGS Several small units per floor starting with 35,0 sqm Small companies and service providers Sold to End Users/Tenants or Individual Property Investors Minimum of 500 sqm per floor Class A and over to 800 sqm Class AA Leased to Corporate Tenants Sold to End Users/Tenants, Individual Property Investors or Institutional Investors Acquisition of buildings in need of renovation Bring to current market standards Class AA requirements Sold to End Users/Tenants, Individual Property Investors or Institutional Investors
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Brazilian Real Estate Market Evolution UNTIL 2003 LACK OF AQUISITION AND CONSTRUCTION FINANCING – NO CAPITAL MARKETS LACK OF GOVERNANCE STRATIFIED PROPERTIES BRAZILIAN PENSION FUNDS THE MAIN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS LOCAL PLAYERS DEVELOPERS AND CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES PROPERTY COMPANIES WEALTHY FAMILIES RIO DE JANEIRO AND SAO PAULO 2,3 MM sqm. UNTIL 2003 LACK OF AQUISITION AND CONSTRUCTION FINANCING – NO CAPITAL MARKETS LACK OF GOVERNANCE STRATIFIED PROPERTIES BRAZILIAN PENSION FUNDS THE MAIN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS LOCAL PLAYERS DEVELOPERS AND CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES PROPERTY COMPANIES WEALTHY FAMILIES RIO DE JANEIRO AND SAO PAULO 2,3 MM sqm. 2003 - 2008 HIGH LIQUIDITY (FUELED BY IPOs AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT)IPOs INVESTMENT GRADE IN 2008 STABLE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS => PENSION FUNDS, DEVELOPERS, HEDGE FUNDS LOCAL PLAYERS => REAL ESTATE FUNDS, PROPERTY COMPANIES, PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS, WEALTHY FAMILIES, CONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES BUILT TO SUIT –ATYPICAL LEASE RIO DE JANEIRO AND SAO PAULO 3.2 MM sqm. 2003 - 2008 HIGH LIQUIDITY (FUELED BY IPOs AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT)IPOs INVESTMENT GRADE IN 2008 STABLE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS => PENSION FUNDS, DEVELOPERS, HEDGE FUNDS LOCAL PLAYERS => REAL ESTATE FUNDS, PROPERTY COMPANIES, PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS, WEALTHY FAMILIES, CONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES BUILT TO SUIT –ATYPICAL LEASE RIO DE JANEIRO AND SAO PAULO 3.2 MM sqm. Market Overview
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Brazil – Real Estate Market IPOs and Follow On’s 2007 - US$ 36.2 Billion Total IPO Market 2007 - US$ 7,6 Billion Real Estate IPO Market IN 2006 AND 2007, MANY RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS WENT PUBLIC IN 2008 AND 2009, NO IPO RELATED TO THE REAL ESTATE MARKET WAS PERFORMED ACTIVE JOINT VENTURE MARKET Source: CVM / BN CORP Market Overview - Brazil
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Main Office Markets Total Stock 20 MM sqm. 70% in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro 18%Class A/AA – 65% in Sao Paulo SÃO PAULO (SP) Total stock: 9.6 million sqm. Class A & AA Stock: 2.4 million sqm. Net absorption: 15.3 thous sqm. New stock: 29.0 thous sqm Vacancy rate: 7,44% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Cushman & Wakefield ; BN CORP RIO DE JANEIRO (RJ) Total stock: 4.5 million sqm. Class A & AA Stock: 876 thous sqm Net absorption: 36.2 thous sqm. New stock: 25.7 thous sqm. Vacancy rate: 3.76% BELO HORIZONTE (MG) Total stock: 2.0 million sqm. Class A & AA Stock: 38 thous sqm. Net absorption: 23 thous sqm. New stock: 97 thous sqm. Vacancy rate: 1.7% BRASÍLIA (DF) Total stock: 1.7 million sqm. Class A & AA Stock: 86 thous sqm. New stock: 50 thous sqm. Vacancy rate: 2.5% CURITIBA (PR) Total stock: 1.1 million sqm. Class A & AA Stock: 100 thous sqm New stock: 39 thous sqm. Vacancy rate: 6.7% PORTO ALEGRE (RS) Total stock: 800 thous sqm Class A & AA Stock: 150 thous sqm New stock: 47 thous sqm. Vacancy rate: 7.1% Market Overview
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Corporate Office Market 2nd Quarter 2009 São Paulo Class A and AA 9,6 MM sqm Total Stock 2,4 MM sqm Class A and AA 7.4% Vacancy Rate Thousand m² Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; BN CORP NET ABSORTION FROM 2009 /2011 - 500 thous sqm. HISTORICALLY LEASE RATES DO NOT DECREASE UNTIL VACANCY REACHES 16% 65% OF BRAZIL’S HIGH-END PROPERTIES ARE LOCATED IN SÃO PAULO Market Overview
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Market Overview – São Paulo 2 nd Quarter 2009 Prices – AA and A Class Buildings RENTAL ASKING PRICES CLASS A – US$ 41.5/ sqf. /year R$ 64.0 / m2 / Month CLASS AA – US$ 54.4 / sqf. /Year R$ 84.0 m2 / Month Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; BN CORP Market Overview - Brazil AA ClassA Class Primary Regions Secondary Regions Alternative Regions R$/sm/month
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Condo/Suites Office Market São Paulo - 2 nd. Semester 2009 and forecast 4,600 Units US$900 million Sales Value Source: BN CORP 80% 90% 100% Market Overview - Brazil CONSTRUCTION FINANCING EMERGING SECURITIZATION MARKET FOR RECEIVABLES SALES VALUE - 25% CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT 60% OF BUYERS ARE INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS 60% OF SOLD UNITS - 50sqm. REDUCED DEVELOPMENT CYCLE SMOOTH APPROVAL PROCESS AND CLEAR EXIT OF PROJECT WITHIN THREE YEARS
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Investment Case Alpha Tower São Paulo
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Company Project Alpha Tower – São Paulo Assumptions Type of Project Corporate Total Private Area 6,900 SQM Number of Floors12 Private Area per Floor570 SQM Construction Aug/2009 until Mar/2011
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Corporate Office Market – 1st Semester 2009 Rio de Janeiro – Class A and AA Total Stock 4,5 MM sqm. Class A and AA - 876 Thousand sqm. 3.76% Vacancy Rate SECOND PRIME MARKET IN BRAZIL “RETROFIT” GOVERNMENT COMPANIES PENSION FUNDS, OIL AND GAS COMPANIES SERVICING Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; BN CORP Thousand Sqm Market Overview - Brazil
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Prices – AA and A Class Buildings Centro Orla Barra AA ClassA Class CLASS A AVERAGE R$ 83 / sqm/ Month US$ 53.8/sqf/Year CLASS AA AVERAGE R$ 84 / sqm / Month US$ 54.4/sqf/Year Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; BN CORP Market Overview - Rio de Janeiro 2 nd Quarter 2009 R$/sqm Market Overview - Brazil
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INVESTMENT CASE Rio Branco 115 Rio de Janeiro
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Rio Branco 115 – Rio de Janeiro Assumptions Type of ProjectCorporate (Retrofit) Total Private Area12,200 SQM Number of Floors20 Private Area per Floor610 SQM ConstructionOct/2008 until Aug/2010 Company Project
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Cap Rate by Sector CORPORATE BUYERS (12-14%) SELLERS (11%) REALIZED RATES 11.8% UP TO MID 12% DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE RATES DUE TO THE LOWERING INTEREST RATE – TRENDS 10% ASSET VALUE INCREASING INDUSTRIAL SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN CAP RATES IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS STILL A INCIPIENT MARKET LESS THAN 2 MILLION SQM AS PRIME STOCK CONCENTRATED IN SAO PAULO AND RIO DE JANEIRO Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Colliers International; BN CORP Market Overview
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2008/2009Brazilian Real Estate Market Challenges and Opportunities São Paulo lease rate: +25% Moscow: -63% Mumbai: -44% Beijing: -16% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; BN CORP Trend: Market Overview - Brazil Vacancy Rate Trend: Beijing Mumbai Moscow São Paulo Total Stock (high-end): 8,8 MM sqm 3,8 MM sqm 1,5 MM sqm 2,4 MM sqm BRIC - Real Estate Market
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Market Overview Funding options Transaction Structuring Foreign Investors should be Familiarized with the Market Dynamics. The world is Global, Regional and Local Risk Adjusted Opportunity Cost of Investing in Brazil Brazilian Real Estate Market Challenges and Opportunities An emerging securitization market Brazilian Pension Funds are investing Real Estate Funds - the development phase Prevalent stratified title and Pre-Sell floors Capital needs and provide self liquidating. Local developers are becoming more institutional Local expertise with local partners Underleveraged Market - the real estate market is not distressed and a strong bank system is present. Cap rates will go down soon; Low interest rate trend, Rise asset value, With the yield compression ChallengesOpportunities
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Sandra Ralston sandra.ralston@bncorp.com.br +55 11 4083-5301 +55 11 4083-5302 +55 11 9952-7772
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