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Fact finding mission or Facts, Findings, Missions as it looks from a viewpoint of a Hungarian Banker from Bucharest Budapest International Business Center Conference 2013 Panel discussion - Financial Services Budapest March 22, 2013 György Gáldi - Deputy CEO, Member of Management Board OTP Bank Romania S.A.
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Content of this unusual SLIDESHOW Showing up Facts and Findings with respect to main figures/features of the new (i.e. joined during the last decade) EU member-states from Central and South Eastern Europe about: –Banking sector –FDI flow & stock developments –Foreign trading developments in order to determine the potential Missions to be fulfilled by banks acting as financial intermediaries. WARNING! FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS! EXPECTED SPEED: 20-30 Sec/slides 2
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Introduction 3
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Source: Eurostat, OTP research 4 Real GDP (2008 average = 100, seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days) Introduction
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5 Real GDP (2008 average = 100, seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days) Source: Eurostat, OTP research Introduction
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GDP at current prices (bln EUR, 2012) 6 Source: Eurostat, OTP research Introduction
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Weight of countries in the region by GDP (% of region, based on current prices, 2012) 7 Source: Eurostat, OTP research Introduction
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Banking sector 8
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Source: ECB, OTP research Banking sector - Assets Aggregated assets of the banking sectors (bln EUR, December 2012) 9
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Source: ECB, OTP research Banking sector - Assets Weight of countries in the region by aggregated assets (% of region, December 2012) 10
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Note: only private loans are included Source: ECB, Eurostat, OTP research Banking sector – Assets and Loans 11 Aggregated assets and loans to GDP (%, 2012)
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12 Banking sector – Loans Loans to GDP ratio compared to the Eurozone (Eurozone = 100) Note: only private loans are included Source: ECB, Eurostat, OTP research
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13 Banking sector – Loans Evolution of loans (2008 average = 100, 3M moving average) Note: only private loans are included, EUR based index Source: ECB, OTP research
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14 Evolution of loans (2008 average = 100, 3M moving average) Banking sector – Loans Note: only private loans are included, EUR based index Source: ECB, OTP research
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Banking sector – Deposits 15 Deposits to GDP ratio compared to the Eurozone (Eurozone = 100) Note: only private deposits are included Source: ECB, Eurostat, OTP research
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16 Banking sector – Deposits Evolution of deposits (2008 average = 100, 3M moving average) Note: only private deposits are included Source: ECB, OTP research
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Banking sector – Deposits 17 Evolution of deposits (2008 average = 100, 3M moving average) Note: only private deposits are included Source: ECB, OTP research
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18 Banking sector – Loans to deposits Loans to deposits ratio (%, 3M moving average) Note: only private loans and deposits are included Source: ECB, OTP research
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Banking sector – Loans to deposits 19 Loans to deposits ratio (%, 3M moving average) Note: only private loans and deposits are included Source: ECB, OTP research
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FDI stock and flow developments 20
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Note: intra FDI flows are included Source: Eurostat, OTP research FDI stock and flow developments 21 Inward FDI flows (bln EUR) Shares of the inward FDI flows in the region (%)
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FDI stock and flow developments 22 FDI stocks (bln EUR) Shares of the FDI stocks in the region (%) Note: intra FDI stocks are included Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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FDI stock and flow developments 23 Inward FDI stock to GDP (%, 2011) Note: intra FDI stocks are included. For example in case of the Eurozone the FDI stock / GDP ratio would be only about 46% if the intra FDI stocks are excluded. Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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FDI stock and flow developments 24 Per capita inward FDI stock (1.000 EUR/capita, 2011) Note: intra FDI stocks are included. In case of Romania the population took into consideration was 19,0 mln as of the last (2011) census and not the official number of approx. 21 mln. Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, OTP research
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Source: Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, OTP research FDI stock and flow developments Top investors in Romania by inward FDI stock (% of total in brackets,mln EUR, 2011) Structure of inward FDI stock in Romania from Hungary (mln EUR, 2011) Inward FDI stock in Romania from Hungary (mln EUR) 25
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Note: at the calculation of rankings was took into consideration only the top 50 foreign investors by volume of share capital Source: ONRC, OTP research FDI stock and flow developments Top investors in Romania by no. of companies (% of total in brackets, no., 2012) 26 Companies in Romania with Hungarian capital (no.)
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Source: National Bank of Romania, OTP research The structure of the FDI stock by development regions in bln EUR and percentage (2011) BUCHAREST-ILFOV 34,0 (61,7%) SOUTH-EAST 3,0 (5,4%) NORTH - EAST 1,6 (2,9%) NORTH - WEST 2,5 (4,5%) CENTER 4,2 (7,6%) SOUTH-MUNTENIA 4,1 (7,4%) SOUTH - WEST - OLTENIA 1,8 (3,3%) WEST 4,0 (7,2%) FDI stock and flow developments 27
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Note: NCP estimations, Extra-Regions GDP - RON 0,7 bln (0,1%) Source: Romanian National Commission of Prognosis (NCP), OTP research The structure of the GDP by development regions in bln RON and in percentage (2012) BUCHAREST-ILFOV 147,1 (25,1%) SOUTH-EAST 62,3 (10,6%) NORTH - EAST 64,0 (10,9%) NORTH - WEST 62,3 (10,6%) CENTER 67,9 (11,6%) SOUTH-MUNTENIA 73,9 (12,6%) SOUTH - WEST - OLTENIA 47,3 (8,1%) WEST 59,6 (10,2%) FDI stock and flow developments 28
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Foreign trade developments 29
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Foreign trade developments 30 Export of goods (bln EUR) Shares in the export of goods in the region (%) Note: intra trades are included Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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31 Volume of export of goods to GDP (%, 2012) Foreign trade developments Note: intra trades are included Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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32 Per capita export of goods (1.000 EUR/capita, 2012) Foreign trade developments Note: intra trades are included. In case of Romania the population took into consideration was 19,0 mln as of the last (2011) census and not the official number of approx. 21 mln. Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, OTP research
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Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, OTP research Industrial production (2008 average=100, 3M moving average) Foreign trade developments 33 Industrial production (series adjusted by number of working days and seasonality)
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34 Import of goods (bln EUR) Shares in the import of goods in the region (%) Foreign trade developments Note: intra trades are included Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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35 Volume of import of goods to GDP (%, 2012) Foreign trade developments Note: intra trades are included Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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36 Per capita import of goods (1.000 EUR/capita, 2012) Foreign trade developments Note: intra trades are included. In case of Romania the population took into consideration was 19,0 mln as of the last (2011) census and not the official number of approx. 21 mln. Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, OTP research
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37 Export of goods (FOB, % of total in brackets, mln EUR) Foreign trade developments - Hungary Source: Eurostat, OTP research Import of goods (CIF, % of total in brackets, mln EUR)
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38 Export of goods (FOB, % of total in brackets, mln EUR) Import of goods (CIF, % of total in brackets, mln EUR) Foreign trade developments - Romania Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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39 Romanian-Hungarian commercial relationships (mln EUR, 2012) Romanian-Hungarian commercial relationships (mln EUR, 2003-2012) Foreign trade developments Source: Eurostat, OTP research
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Megbízunk egymásban Avem încredere Доверяйте друг другу Verujemo jedni drugima Vjeruju jedni drugima Довіряти один одному Dôverujeme si navzájom We trust each other Д о В ерuemo е B з UMHO 40
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Thank You!
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