1. Ricardo-AEA © Ricardo-AEA Ltd www.ricardo-aea.com Task Force on Emissions Inventories and Projections Workshop 13 May 2013 Ross Hunter Meeting the Needs of Inventory Data Users: The UK Perspective

2. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 2 An overview of the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) compilation process How requirements being placed upon the NAEI are increasing and diversifying How the NAEI is being developed to respond to these new requirements – with a more detailed look at recent work to enhance data for modellers An overview for how the compilation framework could evolve to meet the different needs of widening number of NAEI data users What we will cover

3. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 3 Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA – a task we have been doing now for over 20 years Supported by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (LULUCF), Rothamstead research (agriculture), Aether (rail and projections), SKM-Enviros (industrial emissions and F-gases) and Amec (projections) Compile the Air Quality Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Inventories on behalf of UK Government (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC)) Data for the UK and disaggregated to constituent countries of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) Team for the UK

4. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 4 An Overview of the NAEI Compilation Process

5. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 5 Historic focus on fulfilling international reporting requirements only NAEI data increasingly sought for other purposes –High level atmospheric emissions target tracking –Supporting policy development –Modelling Requirements Placed Upon the NAEI are Evolving Source: UK Climate Change Committee (2013)

6. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 6 Bottom up vs. top down Less accuracy in spatial and sector disaggregation Lack of available input data (particularly activity data) Limited detail of key input datasets Methodological restrictions for using data One dimensional data – focused on producing annual total emissions to satisfy international reporting obligations Difficulties for the NAEI in responding to these additional requirements

7. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 7 Case study: Improving usefulness of NAEI data for air quality modelling

8. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 8 Models - Dispersion -Transport - Chemical Conversion - Deposition Meteorology Emissions (NAEI) Atmospheric Processes - Chemistry - Deposition Air quality modelling in the UK: Inputs and Outputs CMAQ All pollutants (NO 2, PM, O 3 ) Deposition OSRM O 3 UKAAQA PM10, PM2.5, NO x, NO 2, SO 2, Benzene, BaP, Ozone, arsenic, cadmium, nickel and lead Wider Modelling Community All pollutants

9. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 9 Models illustrate different answers/outputs when analysing the same scenario or asking the same questions Highlighted during intercomparison exercise involving major air pollution models used by the UK Government Several reasons for this – but one is due to differences in emissions data used Found that modellers use NAEI data in different ways –Using different ‘method’ years –Use different time-stamped spatial mapped data –Use different assumptions to update or apply additional profiles (e.g. temporal) to data Issues associated with the use of emissions data in modelling NO emissions for 3 models in the grid cell at London Eltham monitoring site

10. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 10 Why is this happening? –The modelling community does not understand enough about the NAEI compilation process and resultant data ‘products’ –NAEI data is not made available in way or format to enable uniform use across the modelling community This is something that DEFRA are keen to address Issues associated with the use of emissions data in modelling

11. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 11 Programme of work to address this Historic gridded data updated with latest inventory year method, also scaling factors for other years Producing/updating Temporal emissions profiles Biogenic emissions Stack emissions database update Primary NO 2 from non-road transport sources

12. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 12 Example analysis: Temporal Profiles Wide-ranging review of temporal data across all emissions sectors Availability of data very variable – some sectors very detailed others no data at all Good data available for electricity generation sector – able to generate hourly, weekly and monthly profiles Can be applied to emissions data used in modelling

13. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 13 (See http://naei.defra.gov.uk/) Disseminating new data ‘products’ to the modelling community Output from the tasks include a range of data, scaling factors, methods, tools Consult/discuss with stakeholders to ensure that new outputs fulfil their requirements and to make them aware of new data. Use or adapt NAEI website to make new data and information available Must complement NAEI data and not compete against it. Will be a ‘live’ process to account for new requirements and updating

14. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 14 How does the existing NAEI framework need to change to meet wider user requirements? Driven by wider user dependence on NAEI data More closely linked with the policy cycle and its evidence requirements Not bound by strict international reporting requirements Data products not all directly related or comparable – cannot be ‘added up’ to produce UK total emissions Not just emissions data – tools, methods and factors are products too Built upon existing NAEI platform and expertise CLRTAP and UNFCCC compliant data still compiled New Data Inputs Focused on supporting new data outputs More bottom-up data From policy development/implementation Can have more limited spatial coverage New Data Outputs A range of new data ‘products’ to meet a range of new user requirements High level targets on reducing atmospheric emissions Data to support development, implementation and tracking of policies Additional information for modellers

15. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 15 Revised view of the Inventory Compilation Process

16. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence 16 Requirements being placed on data for the NAEI are expanding well beyond its ‘traditional’ remit for solely reporting against international obligations Inventory data is becoming increasingly more crucial as an evidence base to support the development and tracking of policies and targets – some of which are very high profile Inventory compilers realise we have to respond to this – and whilst some steps have been taken to address these requirements we realise there is more to do Seeking to expand the NAEI framework to produce a wider series of more focused data products is a way to address this However, careful and considered development is required to avoid confusion and maintain integrity of NAEI data Effective presentation and communication of new data products is also vital Conclusions

17. © Ricardo-AEA Ltd www.ricardo-aea.com T: E: W: Ricardo-AEA Ltd The Gemini Building Fermi Avenue Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR United Kingdom Dr Ross Hunter 01235 75 3095 Ross.hunter@ricardo-aea.com www.ricardo-aea.com