1. XVI European Electricity Regulatory Forum, Florence, 04-05 June 2009 Tahir Kapetanovic (E-Control) ERGEG Security of Supply: System Adequacy Forecast & 10-Year Network Development Plan

2. 2Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 History XIV Florence Forum (09/2007) invited Regulators to continue work on security of supply together with ETSO and other stakeholders Report by ERGEG & ETSO at XV Florence Forum (11/2008) on concepts for SAF & 10-Years Plan Follow-up: ETSO & ERGEG workshop on 03 March 2009 EC, ERGEG & ETSO workshop on 12 March 2009  EC clarification on relations of SAF & 10-Year Plan

3. 3Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Relations & Dependencies 10-Year Network Development Plan including Generation Adequacy Outlook (Article 8(3)b of the new Electricity Regulation) rely on System Adequacy Forecast ACER to monitor the implementation and issue an opinion on the EU 10-Year Plan (Art. 6(6b) of the ACER Regulation and Art. 8(10b) of the new Electricity Regulation) NRAs to monitor the fulfilment of (in case of ITO, according to Article 22 of the New Electricity Directive also to approve) the national 10-Year Plans, depending on national situation and subsidiarity

4. 4Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Relations & Dependencies (cont‘d) Gen. Adequacy Forecast & Demand Forecast EU 10-Year Network Development Plan System Adequacy Forecast ENTSO-E & TSOs Usage Usage by: - investors - market participants - authorities - etc. Input Input by: - generators - DSOs - TSOs - authorities National 10-Year Network Development Plans National 10-Year Network Development Plans National 10-Year Network Development Plan NRAs: monitoring (for ITO: approval) ACER: opinion, monitoring

5. 5Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Key Issues & Objectives System Adequacy Forecast Key Issues & Objectives demand forecastReliable and robust demand forecast information on generationFirmness of information on generation scenariosRealistic and probable scenarios investment trends in generation and gridsTo perform analysis of investment trends in generation and grids against future EU demand for electricity transparency on investment projectsTo foster transparency on investment projects for private investors / market players (investors decide based on their own analysis)

6. 6Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Objectives System Adequacy Forecast Objectives (cont‘d) enhancing anticipation and reaction capacity of competent authoritiesTo help avoid major problems in the future by enhancing anticipation and reaction capacity of competent authorities infrastructure gapsTo elaborate an accurate and global picture of the situation of investments in the EU and of potential infrastructure gaps monitor EU policy effectsTo monitor EU policy effects on the investments adequacy policy-makingTo ease future policy-making solutionsTo identify problems and help propose solutions

7. 7Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Key Issues 10-Year Plan Key Issues grid designUltimate goal: EU transmission grid design list of gridprojectsTransparent and coordinated list of grid projects national & EU plansCoherence of national & EU plans criteriaUsing uniform criteria by TSOs & regulators licensingPermissions / licensing of grid infrastructure

8. 8Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 combinedTop-down & bottom-up approach combined Specify for projects, among others: Technical details Commissioning date Involved parties Estimated costs Impact on system operation, market and overall welfare etc. Key Issues 10-Year Plan Key Issues (cont‘d)

9. 9Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Challenges different purposesSAF & 10-Year Plan are closely related but different items, serving different purposes dependenciesscopeIntegrate dependencies while clearly delimiting the scope Roles & responsibilities Roles & responsibilities of all stakeholders (e.g. generators, DSOs, etc.) compatibility and coherenceEnsuring compatibility and coherence between the national and the EU 10-Year Plan resultThe plan(s) shall result in projects / implementation

10. 10Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Conclusions & Prospects Regulators‘ focus: SAF scope(New) SAF scope & contents Contents Contents of the 10-Year Plan Criteria Criteria for the 10-Year Plan evaluation Encouraging ENTSO-E to extend the present SAF towards the 10-Year Plan Support in resolving identified challenges

11. 11Florence Forum, 5 June 2009 Thank you for your attention! www.energy-regulators.eu Mark your diary for the World Forum on Energy Regulation IV October 18-21, 2009 Athens, Greece www.worldforumiv.info