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25/7/20152 A WORLD WITHOUT BORDERS Frank N. Simpson, CCIM 2011 CCIM Institute President
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Agenda: Presentation I: Welcome & Introduction The Global Real Estate Market Today Presentation II: CCIM Institute Facts
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Frank N. Simpson, CCIM CCIM Designated in 1997 – Designee # 7306 2004 president of the 300+-member Georgia CCIM Chapter 25-year Commercial Real Estate
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Introduction In addition: Economic Development Council of the Greater Hall - Chamber of Commerce Founding President of the Hall County YMCA. Board of Trustees – Wesleyan School
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Family Wendi, Sam, Mike, Frank
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United States Economy 2011 What We Read
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Economy Comments “Economy Remains Sluggish” “High Unemployment “ “Continues Consumers Still Wary” “Foreclosures Pull Housing Market Down Further” “ Community Banks Continue to Struggle ” “One in ten mortgage borrowers owe more than 125% of today’s value of their home” “Housing prices have further to slide” “Say Good-bye to Saturday mail delivery”
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Economy Comments “The “Great Recession” is over” “Retail sales are rising – estimated at 5% annually” “Personal consumption is rising” “Existing home sales are improving” “Industrial production has been rising during the past 18 months” “Consumer prices are stable and reflect neither inflationary nor deflationary tendencies” “When will we be at the bottom of the commercial real estate market? Perhaps now – indications are very good” “Dow to top 12,500 by EOY 2011”
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RE Market Theme Greed
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GREED INSIGHTFUL –Warren Buffett says: “Be fearful when others are greedy; Be greedy when others are fearful”
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Sector Ratings
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14 U.S. CAP RATES DOWN!
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Home Supply
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Source: Goldman Sachs and REIT filings LOOMING DEBT - $1.8 TRILLION
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2011 Economy The economy will show more job growth - Private sector up, Government down. Housing starts increase More CRE transactions Dow up US dollar strengthens Federal Government zero interest policy continues United States will see 3-4% Growth in 2011 (Bernanke) On and On
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Is the Recession over? Technically Yes –2 Qtrs. Of Positive GDP growth, But… Slow/Prolonged Recovery Unemployment Still Too High! Devaluation in Pricing still to occur More deals happening.
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27 2011 vs. 2010 – Differences There is Less Competition! Globally, prices are lower, still have some downward pressure U.S. is starting a recovery Capital Markets: Bad, but not as bad as ‘08. Global Economy - Varies
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Ken Riggs, CCIM CCIM – Chief Economist “The recovery will vary by geography and property type, but for investors seeking to seize market opportunities, 2010 & 2011 will be the best time in generations to buy well-priced, quality commercial real estate,…Investors should view 2010/2011 as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to snag key long-term investments.”
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Moscow Office Vacancy Class A 19.6% Class B+15.3% Class B-12.7% Overall Average Vacancy 15.1% *Jones Lang LaSalle
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Moscow Office Overview The recovery of the Moscow office market continued in 2011. 1 st Quarter completion volume was 198,800 sq m. Prime rents reached USD 1,000 per sq m per year, a 11% growth. Classes A, B+ and B- rents remained unchanged Jones Lang LaSalle
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Warehouse Overview Cont. Vacancy rate continues to decrease Currently 3.7% Vacancy rates expected to decline further, indicating increase in rents. 76,200 Sq M constructed in 1 st Quarter 2011. Moscow remains 2 nd in all of Europe for costs of Rents (2 nd to London) * Jones Lang LaSalle
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Moscow Warehouse Overview Due to the high tenant activity, the vacancy rate continued to decrease in Q1 200 to 3.7%. Absorption volume for 1 st Quarter 2011 accounted for 215,670 mn sq m. Driven by low vacancy rate prime warehouse rents increased by 8.7%. *Jnes Lang LaSalle
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Commercial Real Estate Partners Largest Network on Earth
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Realtor Stats 2006 Peak of 1.5+ million Realtors 2010 1,063 Million Realtors 30+/- Percent Decrease
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Countries with courses & members Countries with members
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International Membership 1500 International Members 36 Countries Courses: Russia, Poland, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Dubai, Egypt, Taiwan, China Studying Vietnam, India New CCIMs in Taiwan
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40 Ken Riggs, CCIM CCIM – Chief Economist “For investors who wish to minimize the uncertainty and the amount of risk in their investment, commercial real estate remains attractive because it is tangible and more transparent than other investments—investors can actually see the number of tenants in a building and the rent they are paying.”
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Financial Status
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Membership 2010 vs 2011 20102011% Designees848788053.7 Candidates41733728 11.9 Total12660125331.0
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Membership 2011 Budget: Current Designees:9012 *8805 98% Candidates:5885 *3728 63% Total:14,897 *12,533 84% * As of April 11, 2011
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Education Update (All core courses) Total StudentsBudget StudentsDiff. 11911746555 Total DollarsBudget DollarsDiff $516,905 $868,471. $351,566
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Education Deferred Revenue: (Not included) –GSA$60,000 –GE$196,000 –Bank (1 st TN)$34,000. Total$290,000+/- Colliers $100,000. (Potential Rev.)
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CCIM Institute Equipping the best minds in commercial and investment real estate. 47
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Only 6 percent of estimated 150,000 commercial real estate practitioners nationwide hold the CCIM designation 48 A CCIM is elite
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To earn the CCIM designation: Member must become a Candidate Pass four core courses (take or challenge) Take 200 classroom hours Earn three elective credits Submit a Portfolio of Qualifying Experience Pass the comprehensive exam
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CCIM Education Premier commercial real estate education Over 18,000 students Outstanding instructor cadre of real estate practitioners
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CCIM Education Premier commercial real estate education Over 18,000 students Outstanding instructor cadre of real estate practitioners $2.6 million curriculum redesign
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CCIM Education Premier commercial real estate education Over 18,000 students Outstanding instructor cadre of real estate practitioners $2.6 million curriculum redesign Online education offerings
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CCIM Education Premier commercial real estate education Over 18,000 students Outstanding instructor cadre of real estate practitioners $2.6 million curriculum redesign Online education offerings
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CCIM Education Premier commercial real estate education Over 18,000 students Outstanding instructor cadre of real estate practitioners $2.6 million curriculum redesign Online education offerings Non-designation education
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Location. Location. Location. Multiple course offerings annually
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Location. Location. Location. Multiple course offerings annually Primary and secondary cities
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Location. Location. Location. Mulitple course offerings annually Primary and secondary cities More than 50 markets worldwide
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Location. Location. Location. Multiple course offerings annually Primary and secondary cities More than 50 markets worldwide Three continents
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CI 101 - Financial Analysis Cash flow model Time value of money Appraisal Investment value and performance Tax implications Internal rate of return Net present value Compounding and discounting
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CI 102 - Market Analysis Evaluating the market Market analysis model Market data and GIS Supply and demand factors Property types Technology Site selection and feasibility Mapping and demographics
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CI 103 - User Decision Analysis Lease terminology Leasing versus owning Buying versus building Lease valuation Lease comparisons Transaction management and alternative user decision process
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CI 104 - Investment Analysis Investment as a process Tax implications Disposition options Acquisition strategies Profitability ratios Valuation Asset management Impact of financing and risk
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Training Customized Training Corporate Training Colliers Re/Max CB Richard Ellis ICSC Coldwell Banker GVA Grubb & Ellis CREW Network Ernst & Young GE Real Estate Wal-Mart Walgreen's McDonald’s AEGON
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Educating the Industry Worldwide 65
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Benefits of Membership CCIM Network STDB Online Online directory of CCIMs Legislative affairs Continuing education MailBridge RERC/CCIM ITQ Cultural diversity Research
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CCIM Chapter Network 61 chapters worldwide Local networking Local education 1,000 markets Branded web sites – (continued work) The grassroots of the CCIM Institute
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CCIM Networking Close more deals Grow your network Expand your knowledge Gain industry recognition Increase your net worth
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GIS – What Is It? A geographic information system (GIS) integrates hardware, software, and data for capturing, managing, analyzing, and displaying all forms of geographically referenced information. GIS allows us to view, understand, question, interpret, and visualize data in many ways that reveal relationships, patterns, and trends in the form of maps, globes, reports, and charts.
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GIS – Why Use It? GIS can integrate and relate any data with a spatial component, regardless of the source of the data. Rather than you working hard to understand your data, GIS puts your data to work for you. GIS can provide you with powerful information -not just how things are, but how they will be in the future based on changes you apply.
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Annotate Uploaded Image
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Technology Provides Better Decisions The Old Way Location The Technology Way Location Timing Demographics Today Commercial Real Estate is: Where, When, Who, What, How and Why!
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MARKETING
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Leo Burnett – Client Sampling
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96 CCIM Russia Model to CCIM for International Growth Important Political Partner to U.S. Expect Russia’s Impressive Growth & Expansion To Continue
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Success “Success always involves risk. You must take a change by investing your time, money, and effort. It pays to be thoughtful and deliberate in your analyses of opportunities, but don’t let timidity hold you back… No one on earth is going to force success upon you; you will find it only to the degree that you actively seek it out.
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JOIN & BE ACTIVE IN CCIM! WE ARE THE SOURCE FOR EDUCATION IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE –Everyone in CRE should attend! Networking –WORLDWIDE –GLOBAL OPPORTUNITES
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Thank You Frank Simpson, CCIM frank@simpsoncompany.com 770 532 9911 Office 770 654 2300 Cell
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