1. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues COSMO Status Report 2006 – 2007 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

2. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Content 1.COSMO organization 2.Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview 3.COSMO scientific activities  Michael Baldauf, DWD "COSMO numerics and physics-dynamics coupling"  DWD "Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO model by nudging"  Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM "Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“  Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwiss The COSMO project: ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecasts'  Chiara Marsigli, ARPA-SIM "EPS activities in COSMO"  Adriano Raspanti, USAM/CNMCA "Verification Strategies in COSMO"

3. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Changes in the COSMO management Steering Committee Members:  Mathias Rotach (the Chairman MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)  Hans-Joachim Koppert DWD(Germany)  Massimo Ferri USAM(Italy)  Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS(Greece)  Ryszard Klejnowski IMGW(Poland) Scientific Project Manager:  Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM(Italy) Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators:  Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD  Numerical aspects / Jürgen Steppeler DWD  Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss  Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss  Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM  Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD Steering Committee Members:  Mathias Rotach (the Chairman MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)  Hans-Joachim Koppert DWD(Germany)  Massimo Ferri USAM(Italy)  Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS(Greece)  Michal Ziemianski IMGW(Poland) Scientific Project Manager:  Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM(Italy) Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators:  Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD  Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD  Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss  Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss  Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM  Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD

4. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Future Changes in the COSMO management Steering Committee Members:  Mathias Rotach (the Chairman MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)  Hans-Joachim Koppert DWD(Germany)  Massimo Ferri USAM(Italy)  Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS(Greece)  Michal Ziemianski IMGW(Poland) Scientific Project Manager:  Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM(Italy) Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators:  Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD  Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD  Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss  Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss  Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM  Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD Steering Committee Members:  Mathias Rotach MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)  Hans-Joachim Koppert the Chairman DWD(Germany)  Massimo Ferri USAM(Italy)  Ioannis Papageorgiou HNMS(Greece)  Michal Ziemianski IMGW(Poland)  Victor Pescaru NMA (Romania) Scientific Project Manager:  Marco Arpagaus Meteoswiss )Switzerland Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators:  Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD  Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD  Physical aspects / tbd  Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss  Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM  Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD

5. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia New model name The former Lokal Modell and its many associated names (LM, aLMo, LAMI etc..) now is/are COSMO-xy, where ‘xy’ is an (up to) two-letter identification of the application of the deterministic model is concerned (COSMO-K, COSMO-E, COSMO- A2…)

6. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO partners Members of COSMO are the following national meteorological services: DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany HNMS Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, Greece IMGW Institute for Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw, Poland MeteoSwiss Meteo-Schweiz, Zurich, Switzerland USAM Ufficio Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia, Roma, Italy These regional and military services within the member states are also participating: ARPA-SIM Servizio IdroMeteorologico di ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy ARPA-Piemonte Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale-Piemonte, Italy AWGeophys Amt für Wehrgeophysik, Traben-Trarbach, Germany CIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali Italy NMA, the Romanian Meteorological Service, will be full member before the end of 2007 Roshydromet, the Russian Hydromet Service has applied to join COSMO and is now applcant member

7. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Model system overview (1) Dynamics Basic equations:Non-hydrostatic, fully compressible primitive equations; no scale approximations; advection form; subtraction of a stratified dry base state at rest. Prognostic variables:Horizontal and vertical Cartesian wind components, temperature (or temperature perturbations), pressure perturbation, specific humidity, cloud water content. Options for additional prognostic variables: cloud ice, turbulent kinetic energy, rain, snow and graupel content. Diagnostic variables:Total air density, precipitation fluxes of rain, snow and graupel. Coordinates:Rotated geographical coordinates (λ,φ) and a generalized terrain- following coordinate ς. Vertical coordinate system options:  Hybrid reference pressure based σ-type coordinate (default)  Hybrid version of the Gal-Chen coordinate  Hybrid version of the SLEVE coordinate (Schaer et al. 2002)  Z coordinate system almost available for testing (see the report by Juergen Steppeler)

8. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Model system overview (2) Numerics Grid structure: Arakawa C grid in the horizontal; Lorenz vertical staggering Time integration: Second order horizontal and vertical differencing Leapfrog (horizontally explicit, vertically implicit) time-split integration including extension proposed by Skamarock and Klemp 1992. Additional options for:  a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit scheme (Wicker and Skamarock, 1998)  a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme (Thomas et al., 2000)  a two time level 3rd-order Runge-Kutta scheme (regular or TVD) with various options for high-order spatial discretization (Förstner and Doms, 2004, Wicker and Skamarock, 2002) Numerical smoothing: 4th order linear horizontal diffusion with option for a monotonic version including an orographic limiter (Doms, 2001); Rayleigh-damping in upper layers; quasi-3D divergence damping and off-centering in split steps. Lateral Boundaries: 1-way nesting using the lateral boundary formulation according to Davies and Turner (1977). Options for:  boundary data defined on lateral frames only;  periodic boundary conditions Driving Models: The GME from DWD, the IFS from ECMWF and LM itself. Thanks to the cooperation with INM, in the framework of the INM-SREPS and COSMO SREPS projects, ICs and BCs can now be extracted also from the NCEP and UK Met Office global models (see the report from Chiara Marsigli about the COSMO SREPS Project).

9. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Model system overview (3) Physics Grid-scale Clouds and Precipitation: Cloud water condensation /evaporation by saturation adjustment. Cloud Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002). Further options:  prognostic treatment of rain and snow (Gassman,2002; Baldauf and Schulz, 2004, for the leapfrog integration scheme)  a scheme including graupel content as prognostic variable  the previous HYDOR scheme: precipitation formation by a bulk parameterization including water vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain and snow treated diagnostically by assuming column equilibrium)  a warm rain scheme following Kessler Subgrid-scale Clouds: Subgrib-scale cloudiness based on relative humidity and height. A corresponding cloud water content is also interpreted. Moist Convection: Mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedtke) with closure based on moisture convergence. Further options:  a modified closure based on CAPE within the Tiedtke scheme  the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Vertical Diffusion: Diagnostic K-closure at hierarchy level 2 by default. Optional:  a new level 2.5 scheme with prognostic treatment of turbulent kinetic energy; effects of subgrid-scale condensation and evaporation are included and the impact from subgrid-scale thermal circulations is taken into account. Surface Layer: Constant flux layer parameterization based on the Louis (1979) scheme (default). Further options:  A new surface scheme including a laminar-turbulent roughness sub-layer

10. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Model system overview (4) Soil Processes: Two-layer soil model including snow and interception storage; climate values are prescribed as lower boundary conditions; Penman-Monteith plant transpitration. Further options:  a new multi-layer soil model including melting and freezing (Schrodin and Heise, 2002) Radiation: δ-two stream radiation scheme after Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for short and longwave fluxes; full cloud-radiation feedback Initial Conditions:  Interpolated from the driving model.  Nudging analysis scheme (see below). Diabatic or adiabatic digital filtering initialization (DFI) scheme (Lynch et al., 1997). Physiographical data Sets: Mean orography derived from the GTOPO30 data set(30"x30") from USGS. Prevailing soil type from the DSM data set (5'x5')of FAO. Land fraction, vegetation cover, root depth and leaf area index from the CORINE data set. Roughness length derived from the GTOPO30 and CORINE data sets.

11. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Model system overview (4) Data Assimilation for LM Method: Nudging towards observations Implementation: Continuous cycle Analyzed variables: horizontal wind vector, potential temperature, relative humidity, 'near-surface' pressure (i.e. at the lowest model level) Observations: SYNOP, SHIP,DRIBU: station pressure, wind (stations below 100m above msl) and humidity TEMP,PILOT: wind,temperature: all standard levels up to 300 hPa; humidity:all levels up to 300 hPa; geopotential used for one “near- surface” pressure increment. AIRCRAFT: all wind and temperature data WIND PROFILER: all wind data (not included in blacklisted stations) Quality Control: Comparison with the model fields from the assimilation run itself. A Latent Heat Nudging scheme is also implemented A nudging of temperature and humidity profile retrieved by satellite radiances by using a 1-DVAR technique is also implemented for testing

12. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO model versions during the year COSMO-Model 3.21: (14.12.06)  Preparations of Ensemble Mode  Implementation of last changes for Runge-Kutta dynamical core  Other minor changes……………… COSMO-Model 3.22: (24.01.07)  New Version of cloud microphysics ( hydci_pp )  Other minor changes COSMO-Model 3.23: (30.03.07)  New treatment of lateral boundaries for moisture variables  Introduced option to calculate volume- and surface integrals over arbitrary cuboid  Other minor changes COSMO-Model 3.24: (26.04.07)  New version of cloud microphysics; here: Graupel scheme  Other minor changes………………

13. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO model versions during the year Now we have: COSMO-Model Version 4.0  Fully implemented all developments for high resolution (LMK- Project, work at other centers)  Fully implemented all changes for running the model in climate mode (long simulations, updating external parameters, NetCDF,…)

14. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Interpolation INT2LM INT2LM 1.5 (05.07.07; Development Version)  Implementation of the changes for high-resolution runs (LMK- Project)  Started implementation of changes from the climate community (NetCDF, special interpolation procedures)  Implemented possibility for interpolating additional variables (e.g. chemistry variables) INT2LM 1.6 (07.09.07; Development Version)  ( First) full implementation of all changes from the climate community

15. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Other related developments …

16. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Other related developments …

17. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Other related developments …

18. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Other related developments …

19. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO operational applications Germany COSMO-EU7 kmBCs from GME NUDGING COSMO-DE2.8 kmBCs fromCOSMO-EU NUDGING Switzerland COSMO -77 kmBCs from IFS NUDGING COSMO-22.2 kmBCs fromCOSMO-7 NUDGING Italy USAM COSMO-ME7 kmBCs from IFS 3D-PSAS COSMO-IT2.8 kmBCs fromCOSMO- ME NUDGING Italy ARPA-SIM COSMO -I77 kmBCs from IFS NUDGING COSMO-I22.8 kmBCs fromCOSMO-I7 NUDGING COSMO -bk7 kmBCs from GME NUDGING Greece COSMO -GR7 kmBCs from GME NUDGING Poland COSMO xx 14km -BCs from GME NUDGING Romania COSMO xx 14km -BCs from GME NUDGING More Info ….National Posters

20. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO-LEPS at ECMWF More details in the presentations by C.Marsigli…

21. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR 1.Structure and organization of COSMO 2.Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview 3.Operational Applications of the LM 4.COSMO scientific activities

22. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia The present scientific organization of COSMO WG1WG2WG3WG4WG5WG6 Scientific Working Groups COSMO Priority Projects TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF RK LM_Z 1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA SIR SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6 UTCS INTERPRETATION SREPS COMMON VERIFICATION – CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION

23. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Special Project Support Activities PL: U. Schaettler DWD 1.Source Code Administration 2.Web Page Administration  Contents Manager  Web Master 3.Documentations, Newsletter, Technical Report  Documentation  COSMO Newsletter  Technical Reports includes many of the activities of WG6 Implementation and Reference Version Still criticities related to the web page administration due to limited human resources.

24. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia  Support Activities PL: U. Schaettler DWD  Retrievas for nudging: 1dVar for satellite radiances P.L.: R. Hess DWD  SIR: Sequential Importance Resampling filter PL: C. Schraff DWD  Further development of LM_ZP.L.:J. Steppeler DWD  Further development of the Runge Kutta method PL: M. Baldauf DWD  UTCS: Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme PL: Dmitrii Mironov DWD  Tackle deficiencies in precipitation forecasts PL: M. Arpagaus MCH  Development of Short range ensemble PL: C.Marsigli ARPA_SIM  Advanced Interpretation of LM output PL: P. Eckert MCH  Implementation of an Extended Common Verification Suite - Conditional Verification PL: A. Raspanti UGM

25. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision  emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA)

26. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision  emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA) As regarded DA for convective scale it was decided that:  In the future Ensemble DA should play a major role  Nudging at moment: robust and efficient, requires retrievals for use of indirect obs, no severe drawbacks (for short term) if we can make them available

27. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD The SIR project take off has been delayed due to missing experienced resources. SAC/STC decision: long-term strategy of COSMO for DA to be re- discussed (2 meetings with external experts, 5 Sept (P.J. van Leeuwen), 18 Sept (Chris Snyder)) SIR project is being revised / replaced

28. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia New PP: Km-scale Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (KENDA) Aim:Development a novel ensemble-based data assimilation system for the convective scale (or km-scale, i.e. 1 – 3 km model resolution) Set up a modular system / framework for ensemble DA. Modular means that others (universities..) can use it. components of the system can be replaced by alternatives The system will be based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF, Hunt et al., 2007) Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) filter (van Leeuwen, 2003) requires more basic research. This option should rely mainly on resources from co-operating universities and research institutions KENDA IS NOW UNDER DEFINITION

29. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Some other issues related to Data Assimilation Latent Heat Nudging DWD: COSMO-DE with LHN operational since April 2007  assessed benefit from revisions done in 2005 / 2006 to cope with prognostic precip MetCH: – LHN real-time test suite for June – Aug 07 with COSMO-2 using Swiss radar data  verification in comparison to pre-opr. COSMO-2 without LHN  positive impact of LHN on surface parameters throughout forecast, particularly for 2-m temperature and cloudiness  very clear positive impact on precipitation in some cases GPS tomography: comprehensive monitoring (14 months) of quasi-operational tomography profiles (at CSCS) against Payerne radiosonde and COSMO fields done  results: tomographic refractivity profiles have rather large errors unless COSMO forecasts are included as background info start working on assimilating humidity profiles derived from tomography retrievals

30. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia ASS free forecast ASS free forecast LHN noLHN scores with latest version of microphysics & LHN 15 – 30 August, 00 and 12 UTC runs (32 forecasts) threshold : 0.1 mm / h LHN noLHN ETSFBI LHN noLHN threshold : 1.0 mm / h ETS LHN noLHN ETS threshold : 5.0 mm / h threshold : 0.1 mm / h thr. : 0.1 mm / h

31. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project 1dVar for satellite radiances PL: R. Hess DWD Specific talks by  DWD "Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO model by nudging"  Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM "Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“

32. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Talk by Michael Baldauf Special Project: LM_Z PL: Ulrich Schaettler

33. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Further development of the Runge Kutta method PL: M.Baldauf DWD Talk by Michael Baldauf

34. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD Implementation of Transport Equations for the Sub-Grid Scalar Variance, Coupling with Convection, Turbulence and Cloud Diagnostic Schemes Motivation There are many deficiencies of LM that are related to inadequate representation of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection. Among them are  prediction of stratiform clouds,  triggering and diurnal cycle of deep convection,  prediction of partial cloud cover and cloudiness-radiation interaction, to mention a few. These deficiencies manifest themselves in large forecast errors, first of all, of precipitation rate and timing and of 2m temperature. The proposed project is aimed at addressing the above issues in a unified turbulence-shallow convection framework. Goals  To account for turbulence and shallow non-precipitating convection in a unified framework (hopefully, for LMK and similar models with mesh-size of 2- 3 km this is a ‘final’ solution, although convection-turbulence modelling with such a grid size is still terra incognita).  To achieve a better coupling between boundary layer turbulence, convection and radiation (for LM and similar models with the mesh-size 7-10 km; may require adaptation of the convection scheme).

35. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD Delay due to lackness of available, trained resources. This project has been considered important for the application of the COSMO model at the “quasi” convective scale  The projects is being reformulated including training of scientists with the required scientific background The COSMO members, through the STC, will provide the necessary human resources

36. Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD v. Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of moist PBL with non-precipitating clouds (UTCS), comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) model [July 2008 – July 2009] vi. Implementation of UTCS into the COSMO model [February 2009 – September2009] vii. Investigation of the interaction of UTCS with the radiation, grid-scale microphysics and deep convection schemes, slowing down deep convection scheme as needed [January – June 2010] viii. Testing UTCS within COSMO-model through numerical experiments, fine tuning UTCS parameters, evaluation of results [September 2009 – December 2010] 2008-2010 Tasks i. (i) Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of a temperature-stratified PBL; comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) models ii. (ii) Testing the existing sub-grid scale statistical cloud scheme in case that scheme is used by both the turbulence scheme and the radiation scheme of the COSMO model iii. (iii) Comparison of the cloud condensate predicted by the sub-grid scale cloud schemes (statistical and relative-humidity) and by the grid- scale saturation adjustment procedure iv. (iv) Testing modifications in the COSMO-model deep convection scheme (Tiedtke) 2007-2008

37. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Tackle deficiencies in precipitation forecasts PL: M. ArpagausDWD

38. Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss COSMO Priority Project ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecasts’ COSMO General Meeting, 19 September 2007, Athens S. Dierer 1, M. Arpagaus 1, U. Damrath 2, A. Seifert 2, J. Achimowicz 8, E. Avgoustoglou 7, M. Baldauf 2, R. Dumitrache 9, V. Fragkouli 7, F. Grazzini 3, P. Louka 7, P. Mercogliano 6, P. Mezzasalma 3, M. Milelli 4, D. Mironov 2, A. Morgillo 3, E. Oberto 4, A. Parodi 5, I.V. Pescaru 9, U. Pflüger 2, A. Sanna 4, F. Schubiger 1, K. Starosta 8, M. S. Tesini 3 1 MeteoSwiss (CH), 2 DWD (D), 3 ARPA-ER (IT), 4 ARPA-P (IT), 5 Uni Genova (IT), 6 CIRA-CMCC (IT), 7 HNMS (GR), 8 IMGW (PO), 9 NMA (RO)

39. 39 PP QPF Aim of PP QPF The aim of PP QPF is improved knowledge about most suitable namelist settings or parts of the model that need to be reformulated to obtain a better QPF at 7 km horizontal grid size Good quantitative precipitation forecast is a challenging task – also for the COSMO model: The project has a focus on model deficiencies – not on errors from e.g. initial and large scale conditions

40. 40 PP QPF Overview of PP QPF Task 1: Selection of test cases representative for „typical“ QPF deficiencies of COSMO model Task 2: Definition of sensitivity studies Task 3: Run sensitivity studies and draw conclusions

41. 41 PP QPF List of test cases from all countries DATEINSITUTIONOverestimation (+)/underestimation (-) Stratiform (strat)/convective(con) 06.12.2004DWD+stratwarm sector 18.03.2005DWD+stratcold front+orography 03.05.2005DWD+Strat+convwarm front 21.06.2005DWD-convcold front 02.02.2005MeteoSwiss+stratoccluded front+orogr. 22.03.2005MeteoSwiss+stratwarm front 12.07.2005MeteoSwiss+conv- 17.12.2005MeteoSwiss+stratorography 24.09.2004ARPA-P-convcold front+orography 10.04.2005ARPA-ER+stratoccluded front+orogr. 17.08.2006CIRA-CMCC-convcold front+orography 09.09.2005CIRA-CMCC-conv- 01.12.2005NMA-stratcold front 03.12.2005NMA-stratcold front+orography 17.12.2005NMA-Strat+convcold front 15.09.2005HNMS-conv- 23.11.2005HNMS-Strat+convwarm front 26.11.2005HNMS-stratorography 03.05.2005IMGW-stratcold front 04.05.2005IMGW0stratcold front 09.06.2005IMGW+strat- 09.08.2005IMGW+strat- 23.06.2005NMA+strat+convcold front 02.07.2005NMA+stratcold front 12.07.2005NMA-stratcold front

42. 42 PP QPF Forecast errors 10 cases of stratiform overestimation (8 from D, CH and PO) 4 cases of stratiform underestimation 3 cases of convective overestimation 7 cases of convective underestimation (6 from I and GR)

43. 43 PP QPF Sensitivity studies 1. Changes of initial conditions 2. Changes of numerical methods 3.1 Changes of microphysics 3.2 Changes of convection schemes 3.3 Changes of PBL schemes

44. 44 PP QPF | Status Report Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Conclusions (still preliminary …) COSMO Version 4.0 is a good step forward! Further improvements expected from Runge-Kutta. We should have a closer look at the (initial) humidity fields. – Any improvements in data assimilation expected? Convection schemes are the next thing to look at. BUT: Even combining all positive (i.e. precipitation reducing …) effects does only cure about half of the cases of (stratiform) overprediction (main aim of project at project start …). publication of results planned until end of the year

45. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Development of short range ensemble (SREPS) PL: C.Marsigli ARPA-SIM Talk by Chiara Marsigli

46. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Advanced interpretation of LM outputs PL: Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Some results in the talk by Adriano Raspanti The foreseen increase in resolution of the models will lead to a proliferation of grid points and probably also to an increase of the noise in the forecasts. The manifestations of the double penalty effect will increase for events not predicted exactly at the right place at the right time. Valuable information can however be found by composing a statistics on the neighbourhood of a verification point. Various ways to extract the best possible information out of high density precipitation fields have been proposed so far. I can be of deterministic nature (means, quantiles,…) or totally probabilistic. Different “fuzzy” verification methods will be explored and compared in this project.

47. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Priority Project Conditional Verification PL: Adriano Raspanti USAM Talk by Adriano Raspanti

48. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia COSMO Priority Projects QPF RK LM_Z 1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA SIR SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6 INTERPRETATION/ Verif. VHR SREPS VerSUS 20072008 GM KENDA UTCS ? Due to projects which are going to finish, next year we should be able to concentrate resources on a really small numbers of Prio Progets

49. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Further Info (soon) at: www.cosmo-model.org

50. COSMO report tpaccagnella@arpa.emr.it SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia Thank You!