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Published byColeen Simon Modified over 9 years ago
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Sony Pictures Entertainment: “The Interview” Roy Ju - Michael Jennings - Nina Liu
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Recommendation December 31, 2013: positive profitability prospects December 16, 2014: decreased profitability prospects Consider creation of SPV to cover expected lawsuit settlements December 20, 2014: negative profitability prospects
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Cash Flow Projection Dec 31, 2013 Revenue Streams and Profit Retention Theater Box Office: 30% DVD and Blu-ray sales: 50% Pay-Per-View: 100% Premium Services: 100% TV Broadcasts: 100% Budget: $44 million
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Peer Group 7 movies with similar characteristics Genre and Target Audience Budget Same Entertainment Company Christmas Day Release Box Office Sales Projected Box Office Sales: $273.5 million
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Capital Budgeting Analysis Results: Beta = 1.33 WACC = 9.06% NPV = $38.82 million ROIC = 88.2%
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Sensitivity Analysis % Change in SalesNPV (in millions) Baseline$38.83 -25%$18.11 -50%($2.59)
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Profitability after Terrorist Threat Dec 16, 2014 88% retention of box office sale forecast Increased operational risk (expected lawsuit settlements) = $.26 million Peer group expanded Increased Beta, increased WACC NPV = $21.54
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SPV Diagram SPV Investors Credit Rating Agency Sony
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SPV and Catastrophe Bonds NPV after SPV = $16.58 million Offload risk Operational Liquidity $102 M in principal, 7.5% Current low-interest environment Vs. reinsurance WACC adjustment immaterial
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Sensitivity Analysis 12/16/2014Before SPV (in mill)After SPV (in mill) % Change in Sales NPVVaRNPVVaR Baseline$21.54($44.59)$16.58$21.71 -25%$4.37($61.77)($0.59)$4.53 -50%($12.81)($78.94)($17.77)($12.64)
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Profitability after Normal Release Cancellation Dec 20, 2014 Decrease in quantity of sales, 50% increase in price Decreased expected lawsuit settlement amount Cap bond issuance at $42.5M Expected Loss on Project
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Sensitivity Analysis 12/20/2014Before SPV (in mill)After SPV (in mill) % Change in Sales NPVVaRNPVVaR Baseline($3.63)($31.19)($5.70)($3.56) -25%($14.49)($42.05)($16.56)($14.42) -50%($25.35)($52.91)($27.42)($25.28)
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Conclusion Mitigate Risk SPV and Catastrophe Bonds Minimize Loss Marketing Strategy
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Thank You Roy.ju@drake.edu Roy.ju@drake.edu Michael.jennings@drake.edu Michael.jennings@drake.edu Nina.liu@drake.edu Nina.liu@drake.edu
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