1. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Recharge Policy Analysis Money, Facilities and Choices in the Tucson Active Management Area Kenneth Seasholes Assistant Area Director Tucson Active Management Area Arizona Department of Water Resources 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003 Tempe, Arizona

2. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Recharge Planning Pima Mine Rd. Clearwater Lower Santa Cruz USF Avra USF BKW Kai-Red Rock Service Areas/CC&Ns Operational USFs Operational GSFs Central Arizona Project Ground water flow CMID CAP Recharge Facilities

3. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge AVID Proposal Service Areas/CC&Ns Operational USFs Operational GSFsCentral Arizona Project CAP Recharge Facilities Mutually beneficial financing Additional facility capacity Potential on-site recovery  AWBA would indirectly finance a CAP pipeline to the AVID GSF AVID

4. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge AVID Proposal Service Areas/CC&Ns Operational USFs Operational GSFsCentral Arizona Project CAP Recharge Facilities

5. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analysis  1998 Regional Recharge Plan Much of the report remains valid and useful Scenarios are outdated and inadequate  Updated analysis More extensive physical & financial variables Emphasis on AWBA activities

6. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analysis USF GSF AWBA CAWCD Property Tax General Fund Cost of Water Facility Fees $21/AF Withdrawal Fee Groundwater Demand Available Capacity Available CAP Water Credits Recharge Facilities Policy Variables Physical Facility capacity CAP availability Revenues Tax Fee Fund Expenses Water Fee Credits Firming Water Management Other

7. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analysis =IF(N3-$F$14<=2001,($I$14*1000)/$F$14,0)

8. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analytic Tool DEMAND by sector & provider USF & GSF capacities & fees AWBA funding & storage STORAGE by facility, storer & year SUMMARY  Series of linked, interactive spreadsheets

9. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analytic Tool- Demand Time Sectors % CAP

10. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analytic Tool- USFs Facilities Capacity Cost

11. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analytic Tool- Storage Year Storers Facilities

12. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Analytic Tool- AWBA “Baseline” Assumptions Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million base, 3% annual growth Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF “Baseline” Assumptions Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million base, 3% annual growth Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF

13. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Lowering the cost of credits through buy-down of the $21/AF “Baseline” 98% USF Scenario Testing  Hypothetical Example

14. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge 80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down “Baseline” 98% USF Scenario Testing

15. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge 80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down “Baseline” 98% USF Scenario Testing 30% USF; 70% GSF with $4/AF buy-down

16. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Issue Identification 200,000+ AF shortfall (30% below target) Shortfall reflects revenue constraints and cost of credits Will likely result in future groundwater mining  The Tucson AMA’s firming target will not be met with projected revenue

17. June 5, 200311 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge Conclusions  Recharge policy analysis is complex and multivariate  Decision-support tools can provide insight and guidance  The water management implications of recharge warrant rigorous analysis