1. Changing HE / higher skills provision 22 nd March 2013 Louis Coiffait, Head of Research @LouisMMCoiffait The Pearson Think Tank thepearsonthinktank.com

2. The Pearson Think Tank Who are we and what do we do?  Independent think tank focused on education access and quality  Ongoing programme of research and thought-leadership  The Academies Commission (with the RSA)  Enterprise and Entrepreneurship Education  pearsonblueskies.com, on the future of higher education  Careers2020  University admissions  Tuition fees  Policy intelligence, analysis and comment e.g. Policy Watch, blogs  All of our content and activities are free

3. The future of HE?

4. 2. WHERE? Informally, outside classes, wherever suits More courses with multiple global locations 2. WHERE? Informally, outside classes, wherever suits More courses with multiple global locations 1. WHO? More students, from and in emerging nations More older, working and part time students 1. WHO? More students, from and in emerging nations More older, working and part time students 3. HOW? Blended, online and personalised services Socially with others, virtually or in person 3. HOW? Blended, online and personalised services Socially with others, virtually or in person 4. WHY? Economic benefit, for them and their country But for a better world too - values 4. WHY? Economic benefit, for them and their country But for a better world too - values

5. Reminding ourselves of the current context Why might HE / higher-level skills matter?  2008 recession, 2013 0.6% UK growth, maybe even triple dip?  Still c. 1m young people unemployed  Plan A austerity, £11.5bn savings this Spending Round  UK Plc, a globally competitive knowledge economy?  Radical changes to make UK HE / skills systems more ‘responsive’…  2030 global labour force to grow from 2.9bn today to 3.5 billion  Projected shortfall of 13% (40m) HE-level workers by 2020  60% of global labour force growth from India, South Asia and Africa  Changing nature of both the workplace and the workers McKinsey http://goo.gl/svjKKhttp://goo.gl/svjKK

6. Reminding ourselves of the current context Why might HE / higher-level skills matter? ONS via Guardian http://goo.gl/VyPR6http://goo.gl/VyPR6

7. Trends in UK HE / higher skills provision What is currently happening on the ground?  Funding increasingly follows learners in England, 4 nations diverging  Increasingly competitive and marketised system, student ‘choice’ e.g. competing for 115k ABB students, Key Information Set (KIS)KIS  Total HE sector income up 2.8% and ‘efficiencies’ made... but wide variation, low surpluses, 3.5% fall in 2012/13 learners  Growing (narrow?) focus on outcomes by all stakeholders education = employment = £ / growth ?  Institutions seeking to be distinctive and attractive e.g. How many are ‘The employability university’

8. Changing UK HE / higher skills What alternatives are emerging? Ongoing debate about alternative (to) HE  (Higher) apprenticeships, with strong government backing …but ongoing challenges to delivering them well at scale  Large employers increasingly targeting school leavers sometimes incorporating HE… the Morrisons Academy at Hull Uni sometimes not… Deloitte BrightStart  Cost of HE; recent UK rises, USA already high e.g. $100k Thiel fellowships (not to go to uni)  Corrosive narrative of ‘too many thick kids on Mickey-mouse courses’

9.  -40% since 2010 (105k decline) - more sensitive to fees  Hard to measure, highly variable provision, blurred definitions  Lower completion / achievement - impact on rankings  A complex picture, needs careful institutional / national focus  IES identified four types; career enhancers, career changers, non- career learners and career entrants and suggested FE and private providers have the most expansion potential Institute for Employment Studies (IES) http://goo.gl/ibV15http://goo.gl/ibV15 Changing UK HE / higher skills How is part-time provision changing?

10.  How do these groups overlap with part-time learners?  Mature learners  Postgrads  International students  Opportunities for institutional and course specialisation? Changing UK HE / higher skills Can provision change to target/support other groups?

11.  MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs (hype?)  It is an acceleration of change but the debate often too polarised  Tends to miss the history of online and open learning  Unclear where it leads the sector yet (I’m pretty hopeful)  Stupid name, soon MOOCs will just be known as … HE (truly blended)  Make provision cheaper, flexible and data-supported - open up access  How is your institution using technology to support its mission? …and to target / support different groups? Changing UK HE / higher skills How is online provision changing?

12. Thank you! thepearsonthinktank.com @louismmcoiffait …any questions?