1. Risk Management International Good Management in an Uncertain World ‘’Risk and its Interpolation with Management’’

2. Risk and Uncertainty Risk management arises where samples obey the laws* of probability. Gives rise to quantification which increases knowledge. We can make reasonable assumptions, and plan. Measurable Uncertainties: Insurable / Manageable Uncertainty management arises where samples do not obey the laws* of probability. We have no credible basis of knowing what is around the next corner. Assumptions are a fallacy. Requires resilience, expect the unexpected Un-measurable Uncertainties: Uninsurable / Resilience *Bell Curve (C F Gauss)

3. Evolution of Risk Management Source Institute of Management Accountants

4. Perspectives We’re not betting the farm! We’re not as big as we thing we are, Space, We’re new to 21 st century pace of change and speed of information Time,

5. Ray Kurzweil’s Vision By the year 2040 a super computer will reach the collective brain speed of all the human brains alive. –Computers reach the speed of 20 quadrillion instructions per second, equal to the human brain By 2050 global brain speed is available on a $1,000 laptop. 100 years happens in 20 at the current rate The Age of Spiritual Machines

6. Did You Know... The 25% of the population in China with the highest IQs is greater than the total population of North America! In India, it’s the top 28%! China has more honours kids than the US have kids! China will soon be the number one English speaking country in the world The top 10 demand jobs in 2010 did not exist in 2004, The number of text messages sent and received every day exceeds the population of the planet. Microsoft

7. Managing Risk and Uncertainty for Opportunity In the absence of certainty, the only way to maintain potentiality is to focus on excellent execution and demonstrable resilience at the same time whilst taking as much acceptable risk as is reasonably possible (Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods, The Remarkable Story of Risk)

9. Road Map to Easierness Insert animation here What we’ve put into Irish Whiskey that the Scots don’t have, and –E for Engaging the real risk owners across the Enterprise, –E for return on Risk Management Effort and, –E for Estimation of probability and impact

10. Clarity Initial Risk Map

11. Clarity Residual Risk Map

12. RMI contact details Peter EganDirector RMI Ltd, 2055 Castle Drive, CityWest Business Campus Dublin 24 Ireland T +353 1 4038700 E info@rmi.ie W www.rmi.ie

13. Uncertainty Vs’ Processes required to manage it Perspective Knowing what Qs to ask, Moral courage sufficient to actively want to get the bad news first and knowing the right thing to do, Not about Bell Curves…GIFs? –Great Intellectual Frauds? Ref: The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

14. What we have to contend with Speed of Information Snowball effects of events which cause other events. Interdependencies