1. 國家地震工程研究中心 National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering 200, Sec. 3, Hsinhai Road, Taipei, Taiwan, R. O. C. chyeh@ncree.gov.tw 886-2-2732-6607 ext. 403 1 2003/11/17 Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology In NCREE Chin-Hsun Yeh, Chin-Hsiung Loh and Keh-Chyuan Tsai

2. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/172 Outline of Presentation  Background of HAZ-Taiwan / TELES  Early Seismic Loss Estimation (ESLE)  Ground motion intensity  Soil liquefaction potential  Damage assessment of GBS  Casualty assessment  Concluding remarks  Potential applications

3. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/173 Lessons from Historical Earthquakes  Northridge (1994), Kobe (1995) earthquakes  Important issues in seismic disaster mitigation and catastrophic risk management  Seismic hazard analysis (deterministic or probabilistic)  Damage assessment of civil infra-structures  Socio-economic loss estimation  We need both a framework of methodology and an application software to integrate and to apply the state-of-the-art technologies

4. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/174 Background of HAZ-Taiwan  Proposed in 1997, started in 1998 by NSC  Develop an integrated GIS-based earthquake loss estimation system to be used in proposing seismic disaster mitigation strategies  Although at that time, only few inventory database and analysis models appropriate in Taiwan, the NSC spent a lot of money  Promote disaster mitigation researches  Solve practical problems

5. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/175 Methodology Framework of HAZ-TWN Ground MotionGround Failure Direct Physical Damages Essential Facilities DebrisFire FollowingEconomic LossesShelters Indirect Losses Potential Earth Science Hazards Socio-economic Losses Transportation Systems General Building Stocks Casualties Indirect Physical Damages Utility Systems

6. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/176 HAZ-TWN - a Decision-making Support Tool Natural Hazards Identification Data Collection and Modeling Comprehensive Hazard Analysis & Risk Assessment Mitigation Strategies Performance Measures Building Code Administration Future Land Use Planning Awareness and Preparedness Planning and Exercise Scenarios Response and Recovery Quick Situation Assessment Ground Truthing

7. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/177 Early Seismic Loss Estimation (ESLE)  TREIRS of CWB obtains earthquake magnitude, epicenter coordinates and focal depth within 90 seconds and sends e-mail to all clients  ESLE auto-trig by email and complete quick assessment (ground motion intensity, building damages and casualties) in less than 15 minutes  Important results automatically output in maps and tables to save time and man work  Run multiple instances at the same time and have user-friendly interface to compare and interpret simulation results

8. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/178 Application of ESLE in Emergency Responses Quick Assessment (Unit in Town PGA > 0.08 g) Detail Assessment (Unit in Tract, PGA > 0.16 g) First Stage (Point Source) Auto-trig Single-run Manual Single-run Second Stage (Artificial Fault Rupture Source Parameters) Manual Multiple-run Manual Multiple-run Third Stage (Actual Fault Rupture Source Parameters) Manual Single-run Manual Single-run

9. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/179 Prediction of Ground Motion Intensity

10. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1710 A Deterministic Approach Epicenter Location, Focal Depth, Magnitude, Fault Trace, Rupture Length, Width and Dip Angle Wave Propagation─ Intensity Attenuation and Frequency Filtering Local Site Conditions Chun-li Site-Specific PGA, PGV and Response Spectrum Amplification

11. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1711 Chi-Chi Earthquake as an Example

12. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1712 Different Sets of Source Parameters ShuangTung Fault Chelongpu Fault Arbitrary Rupture Plane

13. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1713 Seismic Event and Source Parameters Title of theMap Legend Intensities of Nantou, Taichung, Changhwa and Yuenlin are greater than six

14. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1714 Point sourceShuang-Tung Fault Arbitrary FaultChelongpu Fault

15. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1715 Estimation of Soil Liquefaction Potential

16. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1716 Borehole LSC & Geologic Map of Taipei Sediment, sensitive Sediment, not sensitive Water Rock Central Geological Survey Bureau, Taiwan Very high High Moderate Low Very low None

17. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1717 Buffer Regions & LSC Map of Taipei Very high High Moderate Low Very low None Undet. 1 Undet. 2 Very high High Moderate Low Very low None Undet. 1

18. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1718 Damage Assessment of General Building Stocks

19. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1719 Analyses of Building Tax Data  Collect building tax data from 22 counties and cities in Taiwan  Calculate statistics of total floor areas  15 MBT by material and height  4 seismic design levels by construction year and location  13 SOC by usage  Calculate mapping scheme of SOC to MBT for each town

20. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1720 Structural Drift-Sensitive Non-structural Accel.-Sensitive Non-structural NSMECNSMECNSMEC P[DS  d s |S D or S A ] P[DS = d s |S D or S A ] Model building Type: Capacity Curve Fragility Curve PESH Spectral Response Reduced for Damping/ Duration Effects Damage States: N-None, S-Slight, M-Moderate, E-Extensive, C-Complete Flowchart of Building Damage Assessment

21. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1721 1-3-story: 37,000 4-7-story: 3,100 > 8-story: 180 Total: 40,000

22. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1722 Building Damage Statistics in Counties County1~3-story4~7-story> 8-storySumRatio 台中縣 17,0001,3003418,33447 南投縣 9,30038059,68524 台中市 5,6009401306,67017 彰化縣 2,30032082,6287 苗栗縣 1,2008011,2813 雲林縣 7407428162 嘉義縣 120611270 Total37,0003,10018040,000100

23. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1723 Building Damage Statistics in Towns TownSumTownSumTownSum 台中縣豐原市3,500 台中市北區 1,000 台中縣后里鄉 540 台中縣太平鄉2,800 台中縣新社鄉 990 彰化縣彰化市 530 台中縣大里鄉2,600 台中市西區 890 苗栗縣卓蘭鎮 520 台中縣霧峰鄉2,400 南投縣名間鄉 880 台中市南屯區 490 南投縣草屯鎮2,100 台中市東區 840 台中縣石岡鄉 480 南投縣南投市 2,000 台中市南區 800 南投縣集集鎮 430 台中縣東勢鎮 1,700 南投縣鹿谷鄉 760 南投縣埔里鎮 410 台中市北屯區 1,700 台中縣神岡鄉 690 台中縣烏日鄉 410 南投縣竹山鎮 1,500 台中市西屯區 610 彰化縣員林鎮 380 台中縣潭子鄉 1,300 南投縣中寮鄉 610 南投縣國姓鄉 360

24. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1724 Casualty Assessment

25. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1725 Input of Casualty Assessment  Statistics of dynamic population distributions  Casualty rates in various MBT and damage states Day timeNight timeCommute time

26. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1726 Flowchart of Casualty Assessment Residential Slight Damage Moderate Damage Extensive Damage Complete Damage w/o Collapse Collapse Occupants Killed W1L S1L S1M S1H Commercial Industrial Government Education Demographics Building Inventory Vulnerability Analysis Casualty Rates Occupants Killed Casualty rate of wood buildings

27. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1727 3,500 death or injuries

28. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1728 Casualty Statistics in Counties CountyInjury 1Injury 2SevereDeathSumRatio 台中縣 4105407401,1001,84052.3 南投縣 15020027040067019.4 台中市 16018024035059016.9 彰化縣 6065841202045.9 苗栗縣 273445671123.2 雲林縣 19212840682.0 嘉義市 322350.2 嘉義縣 212350.1 Total8321,0521,4002,1003,500100.0

29. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1729 Casualty Statistics in Towns TownSumTownSumTownSum 台中縣豐原市360 台中縣潭子鄉 98 台中縣石岡鄉 50 台中縣太平鄉260 台中市北區 97 彰化縣彰化市 47 台中縣霧峰鄉260 台中市東區 85 台中市南屯區 45 台中縣大里鄉240 台中市南區 82 南投縣中寮鄉 39 台中縣東勢鎮230 台中市西區 75 台中縣后里鄉 38 南投縣南投市 140 南投縣鹿谷鄉 64 台中縣烏日鄉 32 南投縣草屯鎮 130 台中縣神岡鄉 61 彰化縣員林鎮 32 台中市北屯區 130 苗栗縣卓蘭鎮 57 南投縣集集鎮 29 南投縣竹山鎮 130 南投縣名間鄉 53 雲林縣斗六市 25 台中縣新社鄉 100 台中市西屯區 52 南投縣水里鄉 24

30. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1730 Comparison of Estimate and Report of Death Tolls (6 hour later)

31. NCREE Development of Earthquake Assessment Methodology in NCREE, Yeh2003/11/1731 Conclusions  HAZ-Taiwan / TELES can be applied in  Emergency responses  Seismic disaster mitigation plans  Seismic hazard analysis & risk management  Modular approach, step-by-step improvement  Maximum probable earthquakes used in seismic disaster mitigation plans  Efficiency/priority of seismic retrofit of public works  Insurance rates for private residential and commercial buildings