1. Overview of crime trends in SA NPA CONFERENCE 2007 JOHAN BURGER Crime and Justice Programme

2. Outline Overview of official crime statistics: 2004/5 - 2005/6 (up to March 2006) What do we know about crime in 2006/7?

3. Overview of official crime statistics

4. General trends over past 12 years Total number of crimes  7% Total crime, and most serious crimes, peaked around 2002/3 After 2002/3, encouraging decreases were recorded (  6% per year) Several types of serious crime  since 2002/3: murder, burglary, robbery overall Serious crimes that increased recently: vehicle theft, hijacking, CIT robberies

5. Total 21 crimes recorded by SAPS 1994/95 - 2005/06

6. How accurate are the police statistics? Reporting of crime to police, 2003 ISS national victim survey

7. Murder rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

8. Housebreaking rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

9. Aggravated robbery rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

10. Bank robbery & cash in transit heists 1996/97 - 2005/06

11. Car hijacking rate 1996/97 - 2005/06

12. Car theft rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

13. Rape rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

14. What do we know about crime in 2006/7? Various sources indicate increases in certain crimes in certain places

15. Short-term insurance industry reports Mutual & Federal: –Reversal of downward trend in hijacking in Apr-June 2006 quarter (4% increase over 2005 quarter) –Stolen cars also resumed an upward trend in Apr-June quarter –Burglary claims increased by 15% in this quarter Hollard: –Spike in hijacking (20%) and burglary claims in Apr-June 2006 quarter

16. Increases in certain crimes in Gauteng (MEC for Community Safety, Feb 2007) Operation IRON FIST (July - Dec 2006) was launched to address the “spike in certain crimes”. Results: –Hijacking “stabilised” compared to 1st 6 months of 2006 –“Substantial reduction” in CIT heists. (SABRIC reports 27% reduction Sep-Dec 2006 compared to 2005) –Business robberies “continued to increase” but at a slower rate than 1st 6 months of 2006 –Residential robberies: “decreases were not recorded” –Residential burglaries: “substantial reduction” after slight increase in 1st 6 months of 2006

17. SABRIC figures Bank robbery: Down from 92 in 2005 to 83 in 2006 Overall decrease of 66% between 2000 and 2006

18. SABRIC figures (contd) CIT robbery: Up from 520 in 2005 to 545 in 2006 (An increase of 5%) In 2005 the increase was 17% In 2004 there was a decrease of 7%

19. SABRIC figures (contd) ATM attacks: Increased with 121% from 37 in 2000 to 82 in 2006 During Jan - March 2007 78 incidents already reported 61% of incidents involved the use of explosives

20. Consumer Goods Council figures CGC members reported armed robberies for the 2004-2006 period: 2004 - 206 2005 - 240 2006 - 262 (A 27% increase over the 3 year period)

21. Consumer Goods Council (contd) Comparative figures for Jan - Feb 2006/2007: Armed robberies: Jan 2006 - 15 Jan 2007 - 15 (no change) Feb 2006 - 28 Feb 2007 - 16 (43% decrease)

22. Conclusion Good news: Overall crime levels are coming down, but are still extremely high (e.g. murder has decreased by 41% over 12 year period, but is still approx 8 times the international average)

23. Conclusion (contd) Aggravated robbery is down from 288 in 2003/04 to 255 in 2005/06 (but is still 55% up from 164 in 1996/97) Bank robbery decreased by 66% between 2000-2006 (but focus seems to have moved to CIT, ATM & shopping centres)

24. Conclusion (contd) Bad news: CIT robberies increased by 74% betw 2004/05 - 2005/06 (this trend continued in 2006 with a 5% increase since 2005) ATM attacks increased by 121% betw 2005 - 2006, and the 78 attacks for the first 3 months in 2007 already matches the total for 2006 (61% of these attacks explosives used)

25. Conclusion (contd) Armed robberies at shopping centres increased by 27% over the last three years Some crimes that showed decreases over the last number of years, seems to have leveled out and even slightly increased (e.g. hijackings, car theft)

26. THANK YOU jburger@issafrica.org