1. Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling Paul Deane Gas - Electricity Interactions Workshop June 2014 *

2. Title

3. Integrated Gas and electricity Modelling  What Impact will variable renewables have on the gas system?  Long term modelling to 2050 Overview of Presentation

4. Overview of Integrated Elec/Gas Model Builds on existing PLEXOS Power System model The Simplified Integrated Gas Model provides the capability to model the costs and constraints of gas delivery from its source fields via a network of pipelines, through storages and on to meet demands including those in the Electric Model. This integrated Gas/Electric Model is not intended to perform the function of a gas pipeline flow model. Rather, it uses a simple transportation algorithm to model gas flows Details of pipeline pressures and pressure drop functions not modelled. Storage volumes, pipeline flows and gas demands can be expressed in potential energy terms

5. 2030 Model is a sub set of larger EU model. 15 minute resolution Gas model is currently only in AI Day Ahead and Real Time Modes (Stochastic or Independent samples) Model Coverage

6. 2030 Gas Model Inputs 2030 EU PRIMES Final DemandUnitsNotes Industrial Demand656 (685)ktoeNormalised DM Data Residential Demand764 (600)ktoeSmart Meter Data Services Demand336 (400)ktoeFlat profile (needs to be improved) Elec Gen-ktoeOptimised in Model Moffat Daily Limits on Flow* Kinsale Storage8613TJ Kinsale Max Withdrawal (day)97TJ Kinsale Max Injection (day)63TJ Corrib0 Not Currently in 2030 model Biomethane Injection Currently in model

7. Addition of Gas objects will impact on objective function to be minimized This can impact solution even if gas constraints are not binding  Generally small  Test and determine if significant  Use MIP or smaller gap Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling With Gas Without Gas

8. ROI Gas and Wind Generation

9. ‘Flow’- Quantity of Gas Extracted from Pipeline (TJ)

10. Capacity Factors for CCGT

11. Annual Gas Storage (Simplified Gas Price)

12. Long term modelling

13. Only those countries with at least one MARKAL/TIMES modelling team active during the period are “painted.” >200 MARKAL / TIMES Users

14. Irish TIMES Integrated Energy Systems Model Linear programming bottom-up energy model Integrated model of the entire energy system Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50 years) –Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market) Optimal technology selection Minimize the total system cost Environmental constraints Energy and emission permits trading Price-elastic demands

15. Ireland Energy System 2012 Imports 13,407 ktoe 155 TWh Indigenous 1,304 ktoe 15,165 GWh Elec - TFC 2,078 ktoe 24,167 GWh 1,821 ktoe 22,178 GWh 4,304 ktoe 50,055 GWh 2,715 ktoe 31,575 GWh 2,226 ktoe 25,888 GWh 1,349 ktoe 15,688 GWh 250 ktoe 2,907 GWh Oil - TPER 8,307 ktoe 96,610 GWh Gas – TPER 4,029 ktoe 46,857 GWh

16. Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-80

17. Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-95

18. Implications for the Economy (€/t CO 2 )

19. Conclusions Strong technical and financial challenges ahead for gas fired plant Long term role of gas is dependant on emission reduction ambitions and targets CCS, Bioenergy availability are key technology risks Policy: 2030 Climate and Energy targets

20. Thank you www.ucc.ie/energypolicy and