1. Atmospheric CO 2 & Global Warming

2. Atmospheric Temperature and CO 2 Atmospheric Temperature and CO 2 Levels

3. Predicted vs Observed Temperatures (Solar Radiation)

4. Atmosphere Composition

5. The Population Explosion

7. The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is primarily due to world energy consumption and secondarily due to deforestation.

9. The Carbon Cycle

10. Fixing Carbon (Carbon Sequestration) l Photosynthesis l 6C0 2 + 6H 2 O  C 6 H 12 O 6 + 6O 2 l Atmospheric carbon is fixed in the biosphere. l Stable exchanges of @ 110 billion tons of carbon annually

11. Carbon Imbalance l Atmospheric carbon levels are at the highest level in 20 million years. l Annually between 9 and 10 billion tons MORE carbon is introduced into the atmosphere than is fixed. l Why?

12. Types of Carbon l Biospheric carbon and Lithospheric carbon (fossil fuels) l General balance of biospheric carbon exchange, EXCEPT for additional atmospheric carbon from deforestation l Between 1 and 2 billion tons per year. l Lithosperic carbon adds @ 8 billion tones of carbon to the atmosphere l 1 gallon of gas releases @ 5 lbs carbon (18-19 lbs CO 2 ).

13. 2010 Carbon Emissions by Country

14. Carbon Emissions Per Capita

15. World Mapper Carbon Emissions Per Capita

16. Hundreds of thousands of years ago 400,000 Years of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Data Atmospheric CO 2 (ppm)

17. OK, Make it a Million Years

20. Causes of Global Change (population, proximate/ultimate effects) Population growth or resource over consumption? l Impact = Population Number * Per Capita Resource Use l US CO2 emissions = ca. 4 tons C/person/year l Chinese CO2 emissions = ca. 0.2 tonsC/person/year US Impact = 4 ton C /person x ca. 270,000,000 =ca. 1.1 billion tons C/year Chinese Impact =. 2 ton C /person x 1.4 billion people =ca. 0.3 billion tons C/year

21. What is the effect on global temperature of doubling the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide? The direct effect of heat absorption by the CO 2 : + 1 o C The indirect (feedback) effects: + 0.5 to 3.5 o C melting ice and snow increases absorption of sunlight (ice-albedo effect) warmer air holds more water vapor, another greenhouse gas warmer air results in different cloud characteristics TOTAL: + 1.5 to 4.5 o C

22. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING Threats to Food Production (Diminished Water Supplies) Human Health Impacts (Heat Waves, Infectious Disease) Wildfire Sealevel Rise Ecological Effects: Extinction Episode Comparable to K-T Boundary Spread of Invasive Species Coral Bleaching Biome Shift Northwards Climate Hot Map

23. Future energy policy will determine this This warming has already occurred 1000 2100 Year

25. Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS How Serious Is This? l Warming of more than 1 0 C above today’s level will make the Earth warmer than it has been in a million years. l Business-as-usual, with fossil fuel CO 2 emissions continuing to increase will mean an additional warming of 2 0 C to 3 0 C this century and will make the Earth a different planet. l At 2 0 C to 3 0 C the new sea level would be 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today.

26. New York City Long Beach Atlantic City Wildwood Montauk New Haven Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

27. Sea Level +1M New York City Long Beach Atlantic City Wildwood Montauk New Haven Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

28. Sea Level +6M New York City Long Beach Atlantic City Wildwood Montauk New Haven Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

29. Virginia Beach Norfolk Ocean City Hampton Dover Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

30. Virginia Beach Norfolk Ocean City Hampton Dover Sea Level +1M Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

31. Virginia Beach Norfolk Ocean City Hampton Dover Sea Level +6M Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

32. Wilmington Myrtle Beach Charleston Mt. Pleasant Hilton Head Savannah Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

33. Wilmington Myrtle Beach Charleston Mt. Pleasant Hilton Head Savannah Sea Level +1M Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

34. Wilmington Myrtle Beach Charleston Mt. Pleasant Hilton Head Savannah Sea Level +6M Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

35. Ft. Lauderdale Daytona Beach Jacksonville St. Petersburg Fort Meyers Panama City Miami Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

36. Sea Level + 1M Miami Ft. Lauderdale Daytona Beach Jacksonville St. Petersburg Fort Meyers Panama City Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

37. Sea Level + 6M Miami Ft. Lauderdale Daytona Beach Jacksonville St. Petersburg Fort Meyers Panama City Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

38. New Orleans Lake Charles Beaumont Baton Rouge Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

39. Sea Level +1M New Orleans Lake Charles Beaumont Baton Rouge Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

40. Sea Level +6M New Orleans Lake Charles Beaumont Baton Rouge Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona