1. Numerical Modeling of the Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Northwest Hydrology Jennifer Adam October 12, 2009 Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering

2. Outline
Background
Research
Teaching

3. Background B.S., University of Colorado, Boulder, 1997
Focus: environmental engineering, research on the removal of manganese in nitrification filters
Peace Corps, Solomon Islands,
secondary education, mathematics
M.S., University of Washington, 2002
Focus: hydrology, research on removal of biases in precipitation observations
Ph.D., University of Washington, 2007
Focus: hydrology, climate change impacts on streamflow in Northern Eurasia
Assistant Professor, WSU, 2008-present

4. RESEARCH Hydrological Modeling Climate Change Impact Analysis
Land Use Change Impact Analysis

5. Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects

6. Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects

7. Temperature Changes
Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860.
IPCC AR4 (2007)

8. 1901-2005 Precipitation Changes
IPCC AR4 (2007)

9. Predicted Temperature Changes
A1B
IPCC AR4 (2007)

10. Predicted Precipitation Changes
A1B
IPCC AR4 (2007)

11. Predicted changes in the Pacific Northwest (by 2040)
Temperature:
+1.4 to 2.7 °C
Precipitation:
Fall, Winter, Spring: +2.3 to 5.8%
Summer: -5.1 to -11.2%
UW CIG Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (2009)

12. Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects

13. Overview of the modeling framework

14. [Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.]
1. Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Future climate effects depends on future emissions of important greenhouse gases such as CO2 - a socioeconomic uncertainty
[Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.]

15. 2. The Global Climate Model (GCM)
A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, A Climate Modelling Primer, Wiley, 1987

16. 3. Downscaling GCM Downscaled Original GCM values
Slide courtesy of A. Wood

17. 4. Hydrological Modeling
Water Balance
Energy Balance
Variables that are a function of temperature
ET = f(LH)
Moisture
Storage P ET Q
Heat
Storage, T Rs
Rlw GH LH SH
Slide courtesy of A. Wood

18. Examples of Hydrology Models
Physically-based
Fully-distributed
Continuous
VIC: 100 km x 100 km
DHSVM: 150 m x 150 m

19. Required Land Surface Characteristics
Puget Sound Regional Synthesis Model (PRISM)

20. Adding reservoir operations to a modeling system
VIC Hydrology Model
River Routing Model
Reservoir Model 1 2 3 4
Adam et al. 2007

21. Research: Outline Historical and predicted changes in climate
Overview of modeling technique to assess climate change impacts on water-related issues
Examples of current research projects

22. (1) Improving the adaptability of dryland agriculture to climate change
Who?
Josh Van Wie (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010)
Jeff Ullman (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering)
Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Motivation and Goals
Dryland (non-irrigated) agriculture may become more vulnerable in a changing climate
Therefore, we are seeking to understand which agricultural practices may improve soil water retention for crop use

23. Study Area: The Palouse Basin
South Fork Basin

24. Preliminary Model Results (using DHSVM)
Drainage Network
Land Cover
Topography
Simulated
Observed

25. Future Directions Near-Term: Longer-Term:
Adjusting DHSVM soil and vegetation parameters to account for changes in cropping practices (e.g., traditional versus conservation tillage)
Applying DHSVM to examine the hydrologic impacts of a widespread adoption of conservation practices
Longer-Term:
Coupling to a dynamic crop growth model (CropSyst) to examine the impacts on crop yield
Performing climate change simulations to examine the adaptability of Palouse Basin agriculture to climate alterations

26. (2) Impacts of climate change and forest practices on landslide susceptibility
Who?
Muhammad Barik (MS Student, graduating Spring, 2010)
Balasingam Muhunthan (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
And others…
Motivation and Goals
Climate change may increase landslide susceptibility in commercial forests with steep terrain. This may result in an increase of sediment to streams and rivers with ecological consequences.
We seek to explore what best management practices in commercial forests will promote the protection of riparian areas in an altered climate.

27. Study Area: Basins of the Olympic Experimental State Forest (OESF)

28. Preliminary Results for the Queets Basin

29. Infiltration and Saturation Excess Runoff
DHSVM Erosion and Sediment Transport Module
HILLSLOPE EROSION
Soil Moisture Content
CHANNEL ROUTING
Precipitation
Leaf Drip
Infiltration and Saturation Excess Runoff
DHSVM Q
Qsed
Sediment
MASS WASTING
Erosion
Deposition
ROAD
EROSION
Channel Flow

30. (3) Impacts of climate change on sediment generation in the Potlatch Basin
Who?
Erika Ottenbreit (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010)
Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Motivation and Goals
Sediment generated over agriculture areas may end up in streams and rivers causing a variety of environmental and engineering problems.
Therefore, we are seeking to understand how sediment generation in agricultural basins may be impacted by projected changes in climate.

31. Study Area: The Potlatch Basin
Application of DHSVM hydrology and sediment modules
Will simulate sediment generation for historical and future climates
Evaluation of model results with a turbidity meter near the basin outlet
Latah County
Clearwater River

32. (4) Impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff across the PNW
Who?
Greg Karlovits (MS Student, graduating Fall, 2010)
Liv Haselbach (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Motivation and Goals
Climate change may result in increased flooding because extreme rainfall events may become more frequent, more precipitation will fall as rain (versus snow). There is a need to identify the critical stormwater infrastructure in the region.
We are seeking to develop regional maps showing how runoff volumes (due to the 2-year, 25-year, and 50-year storms) are changing in response to projected climate change. We will be placing confidence bounds on these estimates.

33. Impacts on extreme rain events
Model simulated changes in extreme rainfall, southern England.
Huntingford et al. 2006

34. (5) Water supply and demand forecasting over the Columbia River Basin
Who?
Kirti Rajagopalan (PhD Student)
Mike Barber (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Claudio Stockle (Faculty, Biological Systems Engineering)
Mike Brady (Faculty, Economics)
And many others…
Motivation and Goals
Climate change is expected to change Columbia flows, while temperature changes impact crop water use. Changes in water supply as well as the socioeconomic environment will impact the type of crop being cultivated as well as the irrigation efficiency.
We will be forecasting (for the year 2030) water supply and irrigation-water demand over the Columbia River Basin as information required by the WS Dept of Ecology to make water allocation decisions.

35. Study Area: The Columbia River Basin
1,250 miles long
Drains 258,000 square miles
Contributing runoff from 7 states and 2 countries
Highly regulated

36. Modeling Strategy

37. (6) Coupled Air/Land Modeling of the Nitrogen Cycle
Funding through a new IGERT, “Nitrogen Systems: Policy- oriented Integrated Research and Education (NSPIRE)”
Who?
PI Brian Lamb (Faculty, Civil and Env. Engineering)
Multiple others: Shane Brown, Bill Budd, Dave Evans, Andy Ford, Kris Johnson, Kent Keller, Bill Pan, Shelley Pressley, …
Motivation and Goals
An improvement in the management of Nitrogen use is paramount. Environmental Nitrogen causes problems both to human and environmental health. Conversely, its sustainable production is needed for agricultural purposes.
An improved understanding of Nitrogen genesis, fate, and transport in the environment can be improved by a coupled atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere modeling tool.

38. TEACHING CE 351 Water Resources Engineering
CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water Resources
CE 552 Hydroclimatology

39. CEE 543 Hydroclimatology Spring semester Topics
Basics of hydrologic and climate sciences
Introduction of analysis tools: statistics, hydrological modeling, climate data downscaling, remote sensing
Literature review of climate change impacts on the water cycle

40. CE 456 Sustainable Development in Water Resources
Fall semester
New class (first teaching Fall 2009)
Elective for CEE students
Topics
Water resource supplies in the Pacific Northwest
Current and future water demands
Climate change impacts on water supplies
Current developments in sustainable design
Risk analysis

41. CE 351 Water Resources Engineering
Offered Every Fall and Spring semester
Required course for all CEE undergraduates
Topics
Pipe flow
Pumping systems
Introduction to open channel flow
Introduction to hydrology

42. Thank You!

43. Example. Impacts on water supplies and flooding potential

44. Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply)
for “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios
+1.7 C
+2.5 C
Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet, UW CIG

45. Mapping of global snowmelt-dominated regions
Approximately 1/6th of the world’s population may be affected
Barnett et al. 2005

46. Mapping of Washington State snowmelt-dominated regions
Elsner et al. 2009

47. Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet
Summary of flooding impacts
Rain Dominant Basins:
Possible increases in flooding due to increased precipitation variability, but no significant change from warming alone.
Mixed Rain and Snow Basins Along the Coast:
Strong increases due to warming and increased precipitation variability (both effects increase flood risk)
Inland Snowmelt Dominant Basins:
Relatively small overall changes because effects of warming (decreased risks) and increased precipitation variability (increased risks) are in the opposite directions.
Slide courtesy of Alan Hamlet