1. 1 „New supply chains for seafood and their impacts on price formation – The case of frozen pangasius fillets and the German fish market 01.June 2010 Helsinki EAFE-Workshop “Optimising Value Chains in Fisheries” Michael W. Ebeling, vTI / Dr. Markus Keller, AIPCE/CEP

2. 2 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation! Does the import of frozen pangasius fillets have an impact on the price formation of EU producers? For example: Germany! Why? Market of relevant size, Fisherman are threatened, Price sensitive consumers, Data are publicly available.

3. 3 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation!  Development of landing prices and volumes for fresh, whole cod and plaice from January 2004 until December 2009  Comparison of landing prices of cod in Germany and Denmark  Calculation of the strength of statistical connection between landing and import prices for cod and plaice A descriptive method to analyse impacts was chosen and in- cludes: - Part I -

4. 4 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation!  Development of import prices and volumes of frozen fillets of pan- gasius in Germany from January 2004 until December 2009  Development of import prices and volumes of Alaska-pollock and cod from January 2004 until December 2009  Comparison of price formation of pangasius frozen fillets vs different species  Calculation of the strength of statistical connnection for price formation of pangasius vs different species A descriptive method to analyse impacts was chosen and in- cludes: - Part II -

5. 5 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation!  Results, if time is available! A descriptive method to analyse impacts was chosen and in- cludes: - Part III -

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16. 16 Results of correlation-calculation r = … (-1 to +1) Pangasius fr. fillet price Pangasius fr. fillet volume r = … (-1 to +1) Pangasius fr. fillet price Pangasius fr. fillet volume Cod land.volume0,01- 0,05Cod fillet volume0,02- 0,23 Cod land. price- 0,03- 0,07Cod fillet price- 0,320,60 Plaice land. vol.0,07- 0,11AP fillet volume- 0,060,29 Plaice land. price0,18- 0,41AP fillet price- 0,210,79 Cod import vol.0,07- 0,17DK Cod lan.price0,100,17 Cod import price0,160,09 Plaice import vol.0,02- 0,13 Plaice imp. price0,240,13

17. 17 Results of correlation-calculation r = … (-1 to +1) Pangasius fr. fillet price Pangasius fr. fillet volume r = … (-1 to +1) Pangasius fr. fillet price Pangasius fr. fillet volume Cod land.volume-0,09- 0,06Cod fillet volume0,28 Cod land. price 0,01-0,11Cod fillet price0,40 Plaice land. vol.0,07- 0,03AP fillet volume0,16 Plaice land. price- 0,52AP fillet price0,78 Cod import vol.- 0,01DK Cod lan.price0,17 Cod import price-0,01Saithe land. vol.0,16 Plaice import vol.- 0,03Saithe land. price 0,35 Plaice imp. price0,05

18. 18 Results of correlation-calculation r = … (-1 to +1) Pangasius fr. fillet price Pangasius fr. fillet volume r = … (-1 to +1) Pangasius fr. fillet price Pangasius fr. fillet volume Cod land.volume-0,09- 0,11Cod fillet volume0,02- 0,23 Cod land. price 0,01 Cod fillet price- 0,320,60 Plaice land. vol.- 0,02AP fillet volume- 0,060,29 Plaice land. price- 0,36AP fillet price- 0,210,79 Cod import vol.0,07- 0,04DK Cod lan.price0,100,17 Cod import price0,160,19Saithe land. vol.0,16 Plaice import vol.0,02- 0,13Saithe land. price 0,40 Plaice imp. price0,240,13

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22. 22 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation! Results: 1. At least for the price formation in Germany, there is no statistical connection between increasing volumes of frozen pangasius fillets and landing prices for cod. But landing prices and volumes for cod are correlated by -0,58. 2.Regarding landing prices of plaice a statistical connection with in- creasing volumes of imported frozen pangasius fillets can be stated.

23. 23 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation! Results: 3. A strong statistical relation between imported pangasius fillets, cod fillets and Alaska-pollock fillets can be observed. 4.Landing prices of cod and plaice show a significant higher vola- tility and seasonal dependence than import prices for the ana- lysed species. 5.The level of import prices for cod has reached an all-time high in late 2008 – even when pangasius was imported at increased prices.

24. 24 New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation! Outlook: Price formation on first sales prices have to be proven against: - Development of quota (availability in general) - Market share of the species - General fish consumption trend in the country/countries of final destination - Price elasticity of the final fish product on consumer level - NGOs fish shopping guides

25. 25 Thank you for your attention !