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Domestic Trends and Measuring Progress against the Red Meat Sector Strategy Red Meat Sector Conference 2013 Auckland 8 July 2013 P13035
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Red Meat Sector Strategy Metrics Vision for 2024-25 In-market Activity Offshore Competition and Export Performance Domestic Trends Outlook for 2013-14
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Sheep and Beef Sector Returns Export and Domestic, Constant 2009-10 $
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Share of Retail Price of New Zealand Lamb sold in Britain
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Market Access FTAs under negotiation TPP, Korea, Chinese Taipei, Russia, India Future FTA focus EU, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Other EU and non-EU Europe Latin America North Africa & Middle East
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World Exports – Lamb Chilled & Frozen – December Year 2012
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World Exports – Beef Chilled & Frozen – December Year 2012
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Export Lamb Receipts
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Export Beef & Veal Receipts
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China Imports – Lamb Chilled & Frozen – March Year
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China Imports – Beef Chilled & Frozen – March Year
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USA Imports – Beef Chilled & Frozen – March Year 2013 438,000 tonnes 280,000 tonnes
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Land Use Trend
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Key Land Use Changes 1984-852012-13e Hill Country Farms (no.) 7,5006,245 -17% Finishing Breeding Farms (no.) 12,1006,125 -49% Hill Country Farms (eff. m ha.) 6.815.93 -13% Finishing Breeding Farms (eff. m ha.) 3.272.34 -28% Dairy Farms (no.) 14,68511,800 -20% Dairy (eff. m ha.) 1.352.24 +66% Commercial farms, excludes lifestyle blocks Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Statistics New Zealand
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NZ Sheep and Cattle Numbers 1990-91 to 2013-14
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Productivity Comparison 1990-912012-13e Lambing Percentage (ewe)100.4% 123.3%+23 lambs Hogget lambs as % all lambs-5.4% Average Lamb Weight (kg)14.3517.88+25% Lamb sold (kg/ewe)9.7618.06+85% Wool Prodn (kg/head greasy)5.285.41+3% Average Steer Weight (kg)297309+4% Milksolids per cow (kg)260340*+31% * To be revised
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Export Sheep Processing 2010-112011-122012-13p CompaniesNo.1716 PlantsNo.3736 Year Kill000*24,30022,84725,043 Max Weekly Potential000*1,2441,1811,269 Highest Week000*884 979 Av per Week000*467439482 Av as % Potential 38%37%38% Av as % Highest Week 53%50%49% Weeks at Highest WeekNo.27.525.825.6 * Lamb equivalents – one sheep equals 1.15 lamb equivalents Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service
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Export Cattle Processing 2010-112011-122012-13p CompaniesNo.141113 PlantsNo.353234 Year Kill0002,2762,0862,303 Max Weekly Potential00090.385.294.0 Highest Week00082.175.683.5 Av per Week00043.840.144.3 Av as % Potential 48%47% Av as % Highest Week 53% Weeks at Highest WeekNo.27.7 27.6 Source: Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service
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Export Lamb Slaughter September Year
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Export Cattle Slaughter September Year
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Export Lamb Price All Grades – Weighted Average
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Export Bull Price M Bull (270–295kg) – Weighted Average
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KPIs Price levels – meat, wool, currency low control Lambing/calving % farm control Wool Production per sheep farm control Livestock weights/growth rates farm control Loss rates farm control Fertiliser per ha or per SU farm control Farm expenditure per ha, SU farm control Gross Margins farm control Rate of Return land asset, external Debt : Equity important if high debt
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Summary Prospects for 2013-14 –Recession continues in Europe –Signs of recovery in the US and Japan –Emerging markets still growing rapidly –Post-drought environment Sustainable profitability in tough environment –Accepting and managing volatility –Continuing gains through livestock performance and operational efficiency Red Meat Sector Strategy measures –Track progress and have reflected the difficult season –Focus conversations, thinking and actions on long-term
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Domestic Trends and Measuring Progress against the Red Meat Sector Strategy Red Meat Sector Conference 2013 Auckland 8 July 2013 P13035
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