1. PAF101 PAF 101 "Spoonfeeding, in the long run, teaches nothing but the shape of the spoon." ~EM Forster Module 4, Lecture 6

2. Class Agenda Announcements Competition Debriefing Assignment for Next Class

4. Pssst…PAY ATTENTION! Community Service 101 Community Service Hours Due BY Monday, April 20th! You can LOSE up to 35 points on module 5 if hours are not completed (Lose 10 points for each day it is late). Sites must be approved by Nick (ntfletch@syr.edu) if your site was denied the first timentfletch@syr.edu

5. 7.5 Change The article can be on your societal category, or your problem.

6. Competition Points As of 3/30/2015 Winners Group #Points 1426 1724 423 1322 1522 121 220 8 1220 1620 619 7 1819 318 9 1017 1117 516 Losers

7. Competition Results Groups 5 and 11 did not complete the competition, so they do not receive points. Group 13/16 is the winner and each group received 5 points! All other groups received 3 points.

8. Competition Debriefing Exercises Now get ready for more points! Attacks receive 1-3 points awarded by Coplin

9. Things to remember Take notes today to help with your module Groups who are called on should find as many errors as possible Choose 2 people to represent your group – DIFFERENT from last competition!

10. Module 4 Debriefing Instructions -When your group number is called choose 2 representatives to stand up and answer the questions (can’t be the same people as the M3 Competition) -Confer with your groups quietly so that you don’t give away the answers to other groups.

11. Module 4 Competition Problem: The dropout rate at Syracuse University, in Syracuse, New York is too high. Proposed Policy: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000.

12. Data Source: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment School YearFirst Year Drop Out Rate 2010-20117.6% 2011-20128.3% 2012-20139.9% 2013-2014e9.1%

13. State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid Exercise 7.2A

14. State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid Exercise 7.2A Bullet 1: Not a societal problem. Missing too much/too little qualifier. Bullet 2: Correct Bullet 3: Correct

15. Exercise 7.2 B and 7.3 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain a benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain a cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot.

16. Exercise 7.2 B and 7.3 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain a benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain a cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot. Problem 1: Most obvious benefit not listed – The dropout rate will decrease. Problem 2: Incorrect justification. Should justify WHY you chose the rating (1, 2, 3) rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Problem 3: Same as Problem 2. Doesn’t justify rating. Also, this justification is incorrect because more spending more money would cost more.

17. Exercise 8.1B Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time PeriodNumber of [Variable] Source or Rationale for estimation 20117.6%Professor Coplin 20128.3%Professor Coplin 20139.9%Professor Coplin 20149.1%Professor Coplin

18. Exercise 8.1B Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time PeriodNumber of [Variable] Source or Rationale for estimation 20117.6%Professor Coplin 20128.3%Professor Coplin 20139.9%Professor Coplin 20149.1%Professor Coplin Problem 1: Should be in academic years and indicate which years are estimate. Problem 2: Incomplete title. Should say: Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University (2011-2014) Problem 4: Incorrect source. Should be: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment Problem 3: No specific variable within the brackets. Should be: Percentage of Drop Outs

19. Exercise 8.2A A. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1% School YearDrop Out Rate 2010-20117.6% 2011-20128.3% 2012-20139.9% 2013-2014e9.1%

20. Exercise 8.2A A. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1% School YearDrop Out Rate 2010-20117.6% 2011-20128.3% 2012-20139.9% 2013-2014e9.1% Problem 1: Incorrect calculation. Uses data points for the last two years instead of the first two years. Correct Calculation: [(8.3 – 7.6) / 7.6] X 100 = 9.2%

21. Exercise 8.3 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: First year: 2014-2015 Second year: 2015-2016 Third year: 2016-2017 Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years.

22. Exercise 8.3 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: First year: 2014-2015 Second year: 2015-2016 Third year: 2016-2017 Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years. Bullet 2: Poor justification. Should talk about the expected rapidness/slowness of the policy’s effect and possibly how the years will show how steadily/dramatically changes will occur. Bullet 1: Correct.

23. Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3.

24. Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3. Incorrect title. Historical and Forecast Graph for Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University: 2010-2017f No source Y-axis should be more descriptive: Percentage of Drop Outs OR Drop Out Rate X-axis title should say “Academic Years” Data points should have numerical values above them.

25. Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows a cyclical pattern of increases and decreases in the dropout rate.

26. Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows a cyclical pattern of increases and decreases in the dropout rate. Correct: Forecast generally follow the same pattern as the historical data UNLESS a special event or condition occurs that will affect the forecast OR the trend approaches an outer limit.

27. Helpful Hints Be sure to justify the rating (1, 2, 3) you give the benefit or cost rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Benchmarks can only be set for the years AFTER the policy is implemented. Label forecasted and estimated data points! Use the Maxwell Manual and follow directions on how to do a graph, but could vary on the computer software you are using. Be realistic with your benchmarks. Just because a policy is implemented does not mean a societal problem will be ameliorated. Put a title on data charts (Ex. 8.1)

28. For Next Class Complete 8.2 to 8.4 if you know what is good for you Module 4 due on Friday, 4/3 Community Service forms due 4/20 http://classes.maxwell.syr.edu/paf101