1. Conflict Termination Trends, challenges (new approaches?) National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011

2. Overview 1. Conciliation Resources 2. Conflict termination 3. Trends 4. Challenge (5. Approaches) 2

3. Conciliation Resources Background Approach Areas of engagement: 1.Supporting peace processes (geographic areas) 2.Documenting best practice (Accord) 3.Policy 3

4. Protracted armed conflicts Some 20 armed conflicts/tensions have lasted more than 20 years. Limited media coverage. Most cases take place in “democratic” contexts. Complexity increases with time: new actors, new factors, increased grievances, culture of violence. 4

5. Protracted peace processes Six negotiations started more than 20 years ago: NPA (23), Colombia (25), Cyprus (32), Spain (38), Nagaland (49), Kashmir (50). Oldest terminated conflicts: MNLF (21), Northern Ireland (25), Sri Lanka (26), Burundi (29). 5

6. Conflict “termination” Peace agreement: 11 (>85 %) Victory/defeat: 2 (Peru, Sri Lanka) Comprehensive negotiations also take place with militarily ‘weak’ rebel groups: URNG (Guatemala), GAM (Aceh). One of the strongest rebel movements in the world (LTTE) was defeated (2009). 6

7. From bullets to ballots 75% of rebels turned political parties access government: South Africa (1994), Mindanao (1996), East Timor (2002), Aceh (2006), Northern Ireland (2007) Guatemala (2007), Nepal (2008), El Salvador (2009). Access to power most often happened shortly after the final peace agreement. It took longer time in Northern Ireland (9 years), Guatemala (11 years), and El Salvador (18 years). 7

8. Trends: the ‘good’ news Less armed conflicts Less battle deaths COIN unsuccessful (Rand) More negotiated terminations Negotiations in most current conflicts Better peace-support capacities Less acceptance of violence: – less support to rebels (LTTE, ETA, FARC) – more peace support. 8

9. Trends: the bad news Conflicts & peace process become protracted Post-agreement violence Conflict recurrence New forms of violence Resilience of power-holders September 11: more asymmetry Time now favors status quo (Palestine, WS) Poor quality of peace agreements Failed expectations 9

10. Challenge From quantity to quality of peace processes 10

11. 1. Re-assess assumptions Peace will be brokered by warriors ‘Strong’ rebels can’t be defeated ‘Weak’ rebels don’t have political power Peace is made around one table A peace agreement will bring peace Spoilers will always put obstacles People are doomed to be violent 11

12. 2. Welcome innovations “6 paths to peace” (1993) Peace zones Civilian peacekeeping (local and intnal.) Early peace dividends: BDA Capacity building to balance asymmetry: BMIL Sophisticated peace-support architecture: ICG, IMT All-women contingent (CPC) Military - peace 12

13. 3. New concepts and methods Violence continuum: public-private Peace process - peace negotiations Manage expectations: increase time-frame Victims: from objects to subjects Explore stakeholder ‘cocktails’. 13

14. 4. Accept complexity Multiple situations overlap (conflict/post-) Same factors produce different outcome at different moments Intuition over analysis Identify and address the multiple layers of conflict. Challenges are both global and context- specific: mutual learning 14

15. 5. Broaden perspectives From stopping violence to challenging violence: – Unmask the interests that justify violence (economic and political dimensions). – Transform the structures that sustain violence (institutional dimension). – De-construct the myths that foster violence (cultural dimension). 15

16. 6. Women’s contributions From linear processes to circular metaphors Challenging binary considerations: – Good and bad – shared responsibilities – War and peace - violence continuum – Men and women – gendered roles From amnesty to accountability. From elite-driven negotiations to inclusive peace processes. From W. liberal values and neo-colonial attitudes to acknowledgement of local and indigenous capacities. 16