1. School of Government and Public Policy SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS Faten Ghosn, PhD fghosn@email.arizona.edu

2. School of Government and Public Policy Three Main Goals: – Domestic, regional and international factors that facilitated the civil war and how they differentiate Syria from Egypt and Tunis. – The main powerful rebel groups on the ground. – Spillover effect into neighboring countries. OUTLINE

3. School of Government and Public Policy Domestic – Failed Economic Liberalization; Impact of Sanctions; Dominance of Gulf Capital; Housing Crisis – Decline in subsidies to the population- 20% unemployment & 14% living in poverty (UNDP 2010) – Repression – Revival of Islamists in 2004 – Attacks/Assassinations/Bombings/Clashes with militant groups: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009; Political leaders as well as Moderate Religious clerics were being targeted Regional – Iraq War 2003 – Failed Israeli-Syrian Peace Process – Withdrawal from Lebanon, and accusations of assassinations – Arab Cold War: Sunni/Moderate Axis vs Shiite/Resistance Axis International – “War on Terror” & Deterioration of US-SYR Relations DOMESTIC, REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL FACTORS

4. School of Government and Public Policy MAIN DIFFERENCES

5. School of Government and Public Policy Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL/ISIS) ( داعش ) Al Nusra Front ( جبهة النصرة ) Islamic Front ( الجبهة الاسلامية ) Revolutionary Front of Syria ( جبهة ثوار سوريا ) Syria Military Command/Free Syrian Army ( القيادة العسكرية العليا / الجيش الحر ) MAIN REBEL GROUPS

6. School of Government and Public Policy

7. Political Impact—Tensions in forming Cabinet and Electing President. Security Impact—Car bombs, suicide attacks, clashes with security forces. Economic Impact—Loss of over 8 billion in tourism and 28 million in trade. Refugees—Over 1million registered refugees (27% of Lebanese Population). SPILLOVER: LEBANON

8. School of Government and Public Policy Political Impact— Increase in tensions; several protests breaking out. Security Impact—Clashes on border, smuggling and arms trafficking. Economic Impact—High Unemployment, escalating rents and the rising prices of basic goods. Refugees– 600,000 registered refugees (10% of Jordan’s population). SPILLOVER: JORDAN

9. School of Government and Public Policy ! شكرا Thank You!