2. Latest IPCC Findings

3. Stern review and Economics
Tackling climate change is a “pro-growth strategy”
Showed that the costs of action to reduce emissions now will be 1% per year or less, whereas the damage costs of business as usual are likely to be in the order of 5 to 20 % of global GDP.
London’s financial services sector bears the brunt of impacts wherever they occur in the world.
2005 saw weather-related catastrophe losses total almost $80 Billion worldwide, and over 99% of all catastrophic losses were due to weather–related events.

4. Carbon Markets
IFSL/UKTI 2007

5. European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s
observations
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
2003
Temperature anomaly (wrt ) °C

6. Hot in the city 600 people died in the August 2003 heatwave
London had highest numbers of deaths for any UK region
London’s heat island means inner London can be up to 9°C warmer than the greenbelt
Further development may intensity the heat island effect
Note benefits of green space protection and congestion charging policies

7. How is London vulnerable to CC ?
Note that London as an international city is vulnerable to climate change beyond the UK due to
World city dependency on the global financial markets
Ethic diversity – London is the most ethnically diverse city ion the world and is to home to many communities from many climate vulnerable countries
Limited manufacturing and ‘just in time’ logistics

9. Current CO2 emissions from London
Domestic
38%
Ground Based
Transport
22%
Industrial 7%
Commercial and public sector
33%
London’s annual CO2 footprint is about 44 million tonnes.
Without action, we predict that by 2025 it would rise to 51 million tonnes
Energy use in existing homes is the largest contributor, at nearly 40%.
Energy use by employers comprise a third.
Ground based transport accounts for under a quarter.
These figures ignore aviation – as do all the major treaties and targets on climate change.
44 mt CO2

10. Emissions Map – Total CO2 (2003)

11. Energy Strategy Objectives
Reduce London’s contribution to climate change, by minimising emissions of carbon dioxide from all sectors (commercial, domestic, industrial and transport) through energy efficiency, combined heat and power, renewable energy and hydrogen;
Help to eradicate fuel poverty, by giving Londoners, particularly the most vulnerable groups, access to affordable warmth;
Contribute to London’s economy, by increasing job opportunities and innovation in delivering sustainable energy, and improving London’s housing and other building stock.
There are no statutory Mayoral powers relating to energy. The Strategy sets out 33 policies and 70 proposals, many of which require partnership working with a range of organisations and individuals who have the responsibility and/or resources to effect implementation

12. Mayor’s Climate Change Action Plan
Four new programmes
Green Homes
Green Companies
Green Transport
Green Energy Supply
Plus action on GLA own activities and on new build
An action-based, funded programme to tackle climate change

13. Required CO2 reductions
Today
Profile of national targets and aspirations (against 1990) 10 20 30 40 50
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1990
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2)
45.1m
44.3m
Proposed London reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation
15%
20%
25%
30%
60%
(vs 2000)
Target for London = 60%
10 year target (2016) = 20%
600 million tonnes CO2 to 2025
Until recently, science suggested stabilising atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550ppm would avoid catastrophic climate change
All CO2 targets have been developed based on this understanding - including UK Government’s 60% aspiration by 2050
Alterations to the London Plan targets were devised to put us on a path to achieving the 60% aspiration by 2050
But the latest science indicates we need to stabilise at 450ppm
For London to do its part, it must limit the CO2 it emits between now and 2025 to 600 million tonnes
Implies a year on year reduction of 4% - starting now
Essentially means we need a 60% cut in CO2 by 2025 instead of 2050

14. Energy Hierarchy Use Less (Be Lean)
Supply Energy Efficiently (Be Clean)
Use Renewable Energy (Be Green)

15. Prioritising decentralised energy generation and renewables
Design to minimise CO2 emissions from the outset
Maximise passive design and integration with CCHP/CHP
All major new developments should establish or connect to a local combined cooling, heat and power network
Minimise need for active cooling systems
Incentivise new technologies, as an alternative to fossil fuels
Further Alterations proposals - developments to achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of 20% from onsite renewable energy generation
Decentralised energy

16. Further Alterations to the London Plan
Proposed new policy:
Boroughs should ensure that all LDFs identify and safeguard existing heat and cooling networks and maximise the opportunities for providing new networks that are supplied by decentralised energy. Boroughs should ensure that all new development is designed to connect to the heating and cooling network. The Mayor will and boroughs should work in partnership to identify network opportunities, to ensure the delivery of these networks and to maximise the potential for existing developments to connect to them.
Supporting text:
This area wide approach should provide more market certainty for Energy Services Companies (ESCo) as it should remove some of the risk of developments not being designed to connect to decentralised energy. The scale of opportunity for delivery may also increase competition between ESCos and encourage the creation of small and medium size ESCos to deal with the different scales of development.

17. Main Panel Recommendations on Climate Change
Overwhelming support for Mayor’s approach
New policy on Living roofs and walls
New policy on provision of heating and cooling networks
Clarification on SPG on Renewable energy and investigation of strategic fund
Review of SPG on Sustainable design and construction and standards in relation to Code for Sustainable Homes

18. Panel recommendations (2)
Adaptation policy – add minimising water use and green infrastructure
Reference to role of soft landscaping in front gardens
Standard for water usage in homes reduced to 105 litres/person/day for consistency with level 3 of Code

19. Overall Savings – Existing London Plan
Overall CO2 savings in tonnes/year
from energy efficiency (EE), CHP/CCHP
and Renewable Energy measures
(113 developments)
CO2 emissions in tonnes/year from 113 developments
with energy statements

20. Cumulative CO2 savings over time (113 developments)

21. Supporting publications
Sustainable Design and Construction SPG: Published May 2006 and includes guidance how to approach community heating, CHP and CCHP in planning applications.
London Renewables Toolkit: Published in September 2005 to provide technical support to GLA planners, London borough planners and applicants on incorporating renewable energy technologies in line with the Mayor’s London Plan policies.
London Renewables Toolkit
Paper toolkit, published in September 2004 (7 months after the London Plan)
Provides info. on different renewable technologies most applicable to London (including what they look like, constraints they have and planning / legislative issues), the types of development they most suit and the costs and their benefits
Electronic Toolkit – Low Carbon Designer
Under development, targeted mainly at engineers & architects
Will allow step by step considerations of the key technologies and design considerations in the 3 areas of energy – energy efficiency, efficient supply and renewable energy to ensure development consider all aspects of energy early on
Dual purpose – standard building but also to help those working toward zero carbon development

22. UK Power Flow Pattern 2006/7
broad estimate is that only 40% of the heat generated in the combustion process in grid power stations is used in the generation of electricity
Losses in power through transmissions and distribution amount to approximately 9% of demand

23. Decentralised energy generation
Powering London into the 21st Century Report1:
High Decentralised Energy Scenario from 2005 to 2025:
33% Reduction in CO2 Emissions.
35.5% of London’s Energy Demand.
15% Reduction in Natural Gas Consumption.
Fuel Flexibility (inc. Renewables).
Local Security of Supply.
1. Greenpeace Powering London into the 21st Century – March 2006

25. Sources of savings from energy supply
Micro-renewables 7%
Combined Cooling Heat & Power
31%
Changes in National Grid mix
47%
Savings from Energy Supply will come from four main sources – CCHP, Energy from biomass/waste, Micro generation and Changes in the national grid mix.
CCHP can provide 31% of the savings
Energy from Biomass/Waste can provide another 15%. Energy from waste/biomass will utilise the waste currently sent to landfill (where it emits methane) and convert this into a bio fuel which can be used as a fuel for combined heat and power, producing both electricity and heat at very low levels of CO2
Changes in the national grid for example meeting the 20% renewables target will deliver 47% of the savings
7% of savings will come from micro renewables, such as micro wind turbines and PV cells on Londoner’s homes and office buldings.
15%
Energy from biomass & waste

27. Barriers to Increased Decentralised Energy
There are serious market barriers which prevent decentralised energy from expanding to meet the climate change targets required of it.
These are all matters that involve the interface between decentralised energy and the market for large scale, centrally generated electricity production:
i) For all but the small schemes (which currently have licence exempt status), the costs and burdens associated with licensable status in respect of electricity supply and distribution;
ii) The cost of standby and top – up (imported) electricity to decentralised generators and the price offered by licensed suppliers for exported power;
iii) The arrangements with licensed electricity suppliers for the transport of licence exempt electricity between decentralised energy sites;
There is an urgent need for reform of the electricity regulatory and licensing system, so that medium size and larger decentralised energy schemes do not have to participate in a market structure which is not designed for them, but at the same time fully protecting consumers.

28. Investing in London’s Future
Carbon scenarios to 2026
Different technology scenarios costed
Hybrid scenario - £8.5 billion required over 20 years
Investing in the low carbon future
Delivery mechanisms discussed with investment community
Substantial investment appetite identified
Onward work looking at buying co-operative, rental scheme, project facilitation service & green fund.
Scenarios in line with CCAP and other work – set agenda for future work – several Boroughs are now carrying out similar work at a local level to inform their CCAPs.
Costs benchmarked and agreed with widespread stakeholder involvement.
Ernst & Young – respected name in finance field which helped raise profile of work – they’ve contributed significant in kind time which illustrates their commitment to the LEP and the overall objectives and opportunities for the Green Fund etc.
Clearly a market – demonstrated by in kind work provided by Earnst and Young in kind time.
Proposals tested at event in May – we asked for 12 investors to respond but over 120 attended the event – demonstrating MASSIVE appetite for area.
European Investment Bank have already entered into discussions with E&Y about investing in the green fund and they have indicated they are willing to invest (to the tune of £20 - £25 million).
Discussions are taking place about structure of the fund and the portfolio of projects.

29. C40 Cities Initiative on Commercial and Public Sector Buildings
New end to end service with three elements:
Energy audit
Carbon reduction measures
Loan for upfront outlay
Work with 5 of the world’s major banks and 4 Energy Services Companies
$5 billion raised so far

30. What’s on the Horizon?
Carbon Reduction Commitment - Proposal to save emissions totalling 1.2 MtC/year by 2020 from large non energy intensive business and public sector organisations
Other consultations arising from Energy White Paper – ongoing Decentralised energy work by OFGEM and others
Carbon performance standards –
Building Regulations tightening
Code for Sustainable Buildings
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
Local authority performance indicators