1. Lisbon, Portugal 1 Rosário Macário and José Viegas E XPLORING THE C OMPLEXITY OF P OLICY D ESIGN Rosário Macário and José Viegas Instituto Superior Técnico Universidade Técnica de Lisboa Duration: 48 months Started: November 2010 Finish: October 2014

2. Lisbon, Portugal 2 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r Integrated strategies are implemented through the combination of sectorial policies and measures to achieve cumulative positive effects or to mitigate negative effects of any of them. r Integrated strategies can accrue synergies between policies and/or measures and that is the main reason for policy packaging r Policy packaging can also occur to increase public acceptability, by adding some compensation to social groups who would otherwise clearly be losing. r Not a new problem ! … But design and implementation of integrated strategies is still a challenge since there are numerous barriers to concerted decision processesMotivation

3. Lisbon, Portugal 3 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r The ultimate goal of the ExPoD project is to:  understand decision making processes in BRT systems and to  develop a formal structure for retrospective analysis of the various interplaying policy components, and  finally develop a systems dynamic model to search for well designed and promising policy packages.Aim

4. Lisbon, Portugal 4 Rosário Macário and José Viegas Interaction with other BRT ALC projects ExPod Decision processes and policy packaging BRT system performance BRT ALC Institutional design

5. Lisbon, Portugal 5 Rosário Macário and José Viegas Policies vs measures r A first step in this process is to obtain a clear view on different types of policies that can be devised.  From the outset we propose to define policies as public initiatives developed in different areas of responsibilities (or different decision areas, normally materialized by government bodies) with specific purposes and using measures as the main instruments of intervention.  In our definition one measure can be the instrument of more than one policy and some examples of policy areas re: land use and transport policy; energy policy; fiscal policy; innovation and technology policy; etc.  In literature (as well as in practice) we find a very blurred distinction between policies and measures ExPoD approach

6. Lisbon, Portugal 6 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r The analysis of policy design and implementation require the understanding of a multi-agent complex system often with multiple levels of government r Policy packaging often means “cherry picking ” components governed by different public sector areas, calling for negotiation and agreement whenever clear hierarchies are absent The real world

7. Lisbon, Portugal 7 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r A set of case studies where retrospective analysis of the various interplaying policy components is possible so that we can deepen the understanding on barriers to policy design and causes for policy underperformance r The use of inductive case studies will allow us to grasp these relations and hopefully find some qualitative and quantitative elements in support of our analysis. r The qualitative and quantitative information obtained will be the input to induce a system dynamics model to support the design of policy packages.Method

8. Lisbon, Portugal 8 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r Life-style oriented measures,  where intervention is only of subsidiary help since the basic element is a change of attitude towards mobility and material consumption. Information and education play a strong role here since knowing the consequences (e.g. environmental damage, etc) of a given transport policy or the effect of certain transport choices may well influence behavioral change.; r Market oriented measures,  which assume that people are willing to change their lifestyle or mobility behavior if others do the same and no material disadvantage will result. In these cases measures like fiscal reforms or changed property rights might change the incentive structure. This approach relies on the public acceptance of price as a mechanism to allocate services and goods; Grouping measures to implement policies (I)

9. Lisbon, Portugal 9 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r Regulation oriented measures,  which rely upon legal and regulatory changes, technical standards and norms (e.g. speed limits, maximum weight of vehicles, etc), on innovative planning methodologies (e.g. spatial planning and transport impact assessment) and on government reform. In general this approach is rather rationalist although it can be tempered with strong participatory processes to provide the argumentative element; r Provision of public infrastructure and public transport services,  which is often adopted as a policy approach and seen as associated with regulation oriented policies, with which it is also often confused. Grouping measures to implement policies (II)

10. Lisbon, Portugal 10 Rosário Macário and José Viegas r The most critical element of this analysis is the ability to effectively assess performances, so that we can identify the best assembled policy packages and respective measures. r At the outset we consider that assessment has to cover both policies defined at the strategic level, and thus with a high level of abstraction, but also measures (policy materialization) defined at the tactical level (planning) and effectively implemented at the operational level, and by then with low (if any) level of abstraction r Feed-back cycles are the privileged instrument to assess the definition of strategic objectives against impacts and operational objectives against results and they rely on performance indicators Critical elements

11. Lisbon, Portugal 11 Rosário Macário and José Viegas ExPoD pillars The ExPoD project builds in three main pillars: Decision-making processes Policies and packages of measures Agents’ behavior

12. Lisbon, Portugal 12 Rosário Macário and José Viegas  WP1 Literature review  WP2 Exploratory survey  WP3 Inductive Case studies  WP4 Analytical research on policy packaging  WP5 Design and implementation of SD tool  WP6 Deductive Case studies  WP7 Guidelines on policy packaging for BRT systems Work structure

13. Lisbon, Portugal 13 Rosário Macário and José Viegas Preliminary selection of cases

14. Lisbon, Portugal 14 Rosário Macário and José Viegas Bus Rapid Transit Across Latitudes and Cultures VREF Center of Excellence Thank you for your attention ! Rosário Macário rosariomacario@civil.ist.utl.pt José Viegas viegas@civil.ist.utl.pt