1. Spectrum 2020 Dr. Andrew Kerans Executive Manager Spectrum Planning Branch

2. Overview. >Broadband demand. >Efficiency offsets. >Spectrum demand. >The evolving user. >WiFi congestion. >Spectrum from where? >Cognitive radio. >Whitespace; are there any opportunities? >A wide brown land (horses for courses).

3. Mobile data traffic growth

4. Consumer demand expected to plateau, however M2M expected to climb resulting in overall exponential growth.

5. Mobile data traffic growth

8. Methods of traffic abatement >New technologies 1995. 1 bit/Hz 2000.5 bits/Hz 2005.10 bits/Hz 2010.15 bits/Hz 2020.20 bits/Hz?? Technologies such as MIMO may deliver up to 50 bits/Hz. That’s 500 Mbit for a 10 MHz Channel!!!! So where is the Shannon limit????

9. Methods of traffic abatement >Increased infrastructure — greater number of smaller cells. >Not acceptable to trade spectrum for infrastructure $$ while legacy equipment still operates. >ACMA will consider incumbents before re-farming spectrum.

10. Effects of traffic abatement on mobile spectrum demand

14. Mobile devices outside

15. Mobile device inside

16. Data offload

18. The problems begin at about 39:50 into the keynote speech at World Wide Developers Conference, when Jobs tries to connect to the New York Times Web site from the iPhone. Jobs gives an audible sniff of disgust (40:03) when the page doesn’t load, saying “our networks in here are always unpredictable, so… no idea what we’re going to find,” then “they are slow today.” 40:20 “you know you can help me out if you’re on WiFi, if you’d just get off… I’d appreciate it” (laughs). Then he finally gave up, saying “I have a problem and I’m not going to be able to show you much today.” He then punted to show photos from the camera roll – which doesn’t require a network connection. Congestion!! it was the overwhelming number of portable WiFi access points competing for airspace that caused the problems. According to InfoWorld’s consultation with an Apple engineer at the event, over 500 networks were in operation at the same time.over 500 networks were in operation at the same time Do we need to allocate more spectrum?? 60 GHz???? Project IEEE 802.11ad Very High Throughput in 60 GHz

19. Spectrum for data offload devices >Where will it come from? The ACMA is asking this question.

20. Cognitive radio ACMA engineers continue to look at the issues and contribute to international debate.

21. Whitespace???? Maximum contiguous white space channels post restack

22. Maximum contiguous white space channels post restack: Sydney Basin

23. Earth Stations

24. Spectrum denial from C-Band receiver

25. Earth station siting

26. Questions?