1. Climate change and European islands Dr. Eman Calleja Ph.D. Islands and Small States Institute 1

2. Structure of my talk 1 Why European islands? 2 Diversity of threats facing the four island regions 3 Identify threats common to islands 4 Implications and need for further research 2

3. Important feature of the European continent Over 50,000 islands belong to Europe Together they occupy 7% of the surface of Europe Enormous diversity among European islands sizegeologymorphologyclimateaccessibilitybiodiversitypeopleagriculture Why European islands? 3

4. Four different island regions MediterraneanMacaronesian Baltic islands Northern European and Arctic 4

5. Mediterranean islands The most populated of the four island regions Has the highest number of tertiary research institutions It is the most studied region The biggest climate change related threat facing the region More likely to come from a lengthening of the dry season through a decrease in summer rainfall, than a decrease in annual rainfall A drying trend has been observed across many islands Demand has already outstripped supply of freshwater in the more populated islands A northward expansion of the arid regime is expected Decrease in water availability 5

6. Will lead to salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers Smaller islands are particularly vulnerable Lack of water resources could lead to conflicts between water users Sea level rise Lack of sufficient water resources Tourist numbers in vulnerable smaller islands might need to be restricted Hotter summers that could scare northern European tourists Tourism could be negatively affected Water deficits, soil salinisation and higher temperatures Adaptation needed: through water storage and use of reclaimed water Agricultural practices at particular risk 6

7. Macaronesian islands The biggest climate change related threat facing the region An inversion of the trade winds would affect the relict Laurel forests Lower lying eastern canaries at risk from sea level rise Biodiversity loss Shift in trade winds to east - west could bring tropical diseases and pests from Africa Risk to agriculture and public health Biological invasions 7

8. Baltic islands Hundreds of islands belonging to 6 EU member states At least 20 are larger than 150km 2 and contain populations of between 1,000 and 80,000 people Baltic basin Milder conditions and longer growing season Improvement in conditions for crop production and extension of cultivable areas Higher rate of increase in temperature Evidence exists of an increase in coastal erosion in various islands Reduction in winter sea ice and increase in wave height exacerbates problem Coastal erosion 8

9. North Atlantic and Arctic islands Marine species include fish stocks and cetaceans Others include bird populations decreasing in various islands Could affect fisheries and ecotourism sectors in these isolated islands Shift is species’ ranges evident Milder conditions and longer growing season Improvement in conditions for crop production and extension of cultivable areas Milder conditions for grazing animals Opportunities to grow new crops and extend cultivation of others Higher rate of increase in temperature 9

10. Leads to increased coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure Isolated island communities at risk from being cut off during more frequent storm events Leads to loss of fishing days and shipping to and from islands Increased frequency of severe storms Erosion of coastal sand dunes and barrier islands during severe storms increased vulnerability to coastal infrastructure Locals facing increased insurance premiums Coastal erosion Social science studies have shown that locals feel the need for adaptation Disagreement with central government and island populations on who should administer adaptation funds Need for adaptation 10

11. Island specific vulnerabilities? Biodiversity Islands important centers of biodiversity Island species often cannot shift their range unlike continental species High altitude species are at particular risk, since they might have nowhere to go. Natural corridors for migration are often not available due to intensive land use practices on islands Habitat specialists, species with a restricted distribution and endemic species are the most vulnerable Sea level rise Islands have a high coastline to landmass ratio, exposing a greater proportion of their territory to SLR Salinisation of groundwater in the Mediterranean Coastal erosion in Atlantic and Baltic islands Vulnerable to extreme storm events affecting coastal infrastructure and connectivity to the island Islands are exposed to disproportionate costs of impacts from SLR and extreme storm events Low adaptive capacity Most European islands do not have access to their own financial resources but depend on central governments Cost of adaptation is often higher in islands than in continental areas due to higher coast/land ratio and greater vulnerability to impacts Many European island residents have a lower GDP, implying a greater cost per capita for private adaptation Remote islands with small populations are the most vulnerable 11

12. Do islands have enough access to financial resources (national and EU) to enable them to adapt? Who will bear the cost of adaptation? Can islands become resilient to climate change in spite of their low adaptive capacity? When will the cost of adaptation be too high to sustain? Will the most vulnerable islands need to be abandoned? What will the social and cultural repercussions be of evacuating an island? 12

13. Need for further research Most climate change research does not take into consideration the impact on islands The little research that does is often fragmented and focuses on only one island or archipelago Most of these studies do not involve interdisciplinary research There is an increased need for research projects that span the different European island regions Translating research outcomes to policy recommendation could bring much needed solutions to adaptation and coping with climate change in European islands 13

14. Thanks for your attention Dr. Eman Calleja eman.calleja@um.edu.mt 14