1. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012
IES
World Energy
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
The 6TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference on Sustainable Development RIO+ 20
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012

2. The goals and tasks of the study
IES
The goals and tasks of the study
Our goal is comprehensive, long-term and non-inertial forecast of world energy development in the light of revealed today energy and technological trends, the relationship of economy, energy and society, and the likely recurrence of crises before 2050
2010: current situation
By 2030: dominance of the fossil fuels is likely to continue
By 2050: possibility of profound changes in world energy mix
The probability of breaking up of current trends and profound changes in the global energy mix may have a powerful impact on the Russian economy and energy sector through the situation on foreign markets and energy technologies 2

3. New global challenges and risks
IES
New global challenges and risks
Geopolitics
The Arab revolutions
Geopolitical crisis in the Middle East
The threat of a new oil shock
The problem of energy security
Global economy
The sharp rise in oil prices
A new wave of economic crisis
Government programs to reduce dependence on energy imports
Technology
Shale gas revolution
Energy Revolution in transportation (hybrids, electric vehicles)
Radiation accident at NPP "Fukushima-1"
Smart Energy 3

4. Comparison with forecasts of other research organisations
IES
Comparison with forecasts of other research organisations
Consensus forecast of energy future forecasts
High uncertainty World consumption of primary energy
billion toe in 2050
Proportions of the consumption of coal and gas
from 2.5:1 by Shell to 1:2.5 by IEA
The share of nuclear energy
from 3.7% to 15.1%
Reducing the share of oil
from 35% to 25%
The growth of biomass consumption
from 7.4% to 15%
Increase in the share of RES
from 6% to 17-22%
Global primary energy consumption by 2050, bln toe 4

5. Methodology Data Analysis of trends
Resource and environmental constraints
Technology foresight
Model
Scenarios of global development
The simulations on models GEM and MACRO
Accounting for cycles and crises
Findings
Interpretation of results
Key possibilities and risk
View from Russia
The scenario is the assemblage point of demographic, economic, technological, political, social, cultural, environmental and energy trends Not just an extrapolation of existing trends, but analysis of conflicts between them and the assessment of the prospects of their breakup 5

6. Cyclical crises as a point of scenario bifurcation Fact
Global primary energy consumption, bln toe
Continuation of the pre-crisis growth path
Crisis of the 2010th
Crisis of the 1970th
Crisis of the 1930th
Inhibition of growth and stagnation
Fact
Coal
Oil
Gas & nuclear
Electric World & Renewables 6

7. Key characteristics of the scenarios in the World Energy - 2050
IES
Key characteristics of the scenarios in the World Energy
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
Energy-intensive
Energy-saving
Energy-efficient
Carbon-intensive
Renewables and gas
Renewables and nuclear
Geopolitical rivalry and economic competition
Global climate and energy policy
The innovative competition and technology
Complex regionalization of economy and energy sector
Slowing globalization
Resource globalization and technological globalization
High growth of global primary energy consumption
Slowing growth of global primary energy consumption
Shift from commodities market to the services and technologies market
High oil prices and heyday of oil business
The stagnation of oil business
The sunset of oil business 7
Инновационное соперничество
Strategies of countries will be determined by different speed of transition to an innovative energy sector
World will split into innovative energy zone and traditional fuel energy zone
The innovative competition
Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy
taking into account the energy agenda of 2050 16

8. IES
Key findings 8

9. By 2030 the peak of global industrialization will be passed
IES
By 2030 the peak of global industrialization will be passed
Global primary energy consumption, bln toe
Primary energy consumption in China, bln toe
The gap between the western way of development and the possible way of China
Fact
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
Proximity of scenarios due to compensation of GDP growth by increasing energy efficiency
Fact OECD
Reference scenario, OECD
Stagnation scenario, OECD
Innovative scenario, OECD
Fact non-OECD
Reference scenario, non-OECD
Stagnation scenario, non-OECD
Innovative scenario, non-OECD
Source: WEO 2010, China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050, Institute of Energy Strategy 9

10. Shift in the global energy mix to local fuels
2050, Innovative scenario
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Large hydro
Renewables
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
bln toe
By 2050 global primary energy consumption will rise times
The share of RES in the structure of the global energy mix will reach %
The share of oil will drop to 29-16%, an absolute reduction is possible
Gas consumption will grow
High uncertainty about nuclear power remains 10

11. IES
World energy sector will shift to resource regionalization and technological globalization
Share of international trade share in global consumption
The peak of international trade share in global energy consumption will be passed by 2030
In place of the now dominant resource globalization will come resource regionalization
A fundamental factor in the resource regionalization will be the shift in energy mix to local fuels, including renewables
With the resource regionalization will increase the importance of technological and organizational globalization
Reference scenario, oil
Reference scenario, gas
Stagnation scenario, oil
Stagnation scenario, gas
Innovative scenario, oil
Innovative scenario, gas 11

12. Shift from power energy to smart energy
Intelligence
Smart grids
Energy saving
Targeted delivery of energy
Systematic character
Technologies of accumulation of power
Decentralization of power capacities
Electricity systems of new generation
Environment-
friendliness
Renewable Energy
Alternative fuels for transport
Carbon markets
The shift from energy commodities market
to the energy services and technologies market
Energy commodities market
2010
Energy service market
2030
Energy technology market
2050 12 13

13. The end of oil era is possible… The crisis in oil demand
Oil consumption, mln t
2050, Innovative scenario
Потребление нефти, млн т
2050, Stagnation scenario
The crisis in oil demand
The peak of world oil consumption will not have been passed up to ONLY in the reference scenario
In the stagnation scenario, the peak will take place around 2040, and in innovation - around 2030
Revolutionary changes in the transport sector are possible: electric and hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, gas and biogas
2050, Reference scenario EU
Russia
Middle East US
China
Other non-OECD
Other OECD
India
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
Motor vehicle
Electricity & heating
Others
Other transport
Chemicals 13

14. Will the Golden Age of Gas come?
Gas consumption, bcm
Rapid growth of gas consumption, especially in the saturated markets of Asia
Share of unconventional gas will grow, including gas hydrates
The integration of regional gas markets through the LNG flows
The evolution of pricing in the gas market
The shift from the "geopolitics of oil" to the "geopolitics of gas”
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario EU
China US
India
Other OECD
Russia
Other non-OECD 14

15. World energy sector will move to the «electric world»
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
*1000 bln kW-h EU US
Other OECD
Russia
China
India
Other non-OECD
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
*1000 bln kW-h
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Large hydro
Renewables 15

16. Strategies of key actors in different scenarios
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
Geopolitical rivalry
Three strategies - control over demand (EU), control over supply (OPEC, China, Russia), the control of transit and trade (United States, transit countries)
Different ways of adapting to a new global climate and energy policy
The role of resource and geopolitical factors will decline
The role of legal and environmental factors will increase
Conflicts in the regulation
Strategies of countries will be determined by different speed of transition to an innovative energy sector
World will split into innovative energy zone and traditional fuel energy zone
The innovative competition
Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy
taking into account the energy agenda of 2050 16

17. Thank you for your attention
The Energy of the Future in our Hands
Thank you for your attention
Alexey GROMOV
Deputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow