1. Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld

2. Politics and Media Convergence of fertility behavior= indicator of „social unification“? Statistical Office Harmonizing of the statistics? Social Science Natural experiement Study of behavior under radically new constraints Relevance of Research Question

3. Structure of Talk 1. Constraints and fertility dynamics until 1990 2. Constraints and attitudes after 1990 3. Fertility dynamics after 1990

4. Constraints before 1990 Planned Economy Constitutional „right to work” No unemployment Integration of Women into Labor Market Normative pressure to be employed High public day care coverage Pro-Natalistic Policies (since 1972) Policies and „moral appeals“ that encouraged early first birth Policies directed to higher order births

5. Fertility Dynamics before 1990 Total Fertility Rate Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 19501960197019801990 East Germany West Germany Pro-natalistic policies

6. Fertility Dynamics before 1990 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Percentage of Non-Marital Births 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 19501960197019801990 East Germany West Germany

7. Fertility Dynamics before 1990 Source: Micro-census 1998 (own calculations) 0% 50% 100% 1520253035 Age of woman Cohort 1964 (West) Cohort 1964 (Ost) Survival curve to first birth (percentage childless by age) ~ 25-30 % ~ 5-10 % ~ 5 years

8. Part 2 Constraints and Attitudes after 1990

9. Fall of Berlin Wall Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1989 1990 1991 Monetary Union Legal Unification Treuhand Fall of ‘Berlin Wall’ in November 1989 Start of Privatization Process in March 1990 Monetary Union in July 1990 Political and Legal Unification in October 1990 Constraints and Attitudes after 1990

10. Unemployment Rate Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1990199520002005 East Germany West Germany Constraints and Attitudes after 1990

11. Hourly Gross Wage Wages in the industry sector Source: Statistisches Bundesamt East Germany West Germany

12. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Worried about Job Security % of respondents who is very worried about job security Source: SOEP (own estimations) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1990199520002005 East Germany West Germany

13. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 One needs a Family to Lead a Happy Life % of respondents who states that one needs a family to lead a happy life Source: ALLBUS (own estimations) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1992199620002004 West Germany East Germany

14. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Child Suffers when Mother Works % of respondents who believe that child suffers when mother works Source: ALLBUS (own estimations) West Germany East Germany

15. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Mother‘s Full-time Employment % of mothers*) who work full-time, [*)women aged 18-45 with children aged 1-15] Quelle: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1991199620002004 West Germany East Germany West Germany East Germany

16. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Provision of Public Day Care (Children under age 3) (Availability ratio for public day care places for children aged 0-3) West Germany East Germany

17. Part 3 Family Dynamics after 1990

18. Fertility Dynamics after 1990 Total Fertility Rate Source: Statistisches Bundesamt East Germany West Germany 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 195019601970198019902000

19. 0% 50% 100% 1520253035 Age of Woman Family Dynamics after 1990 Source: Micro-census (own estimations) Cohort 1972 (East) Cohort 1964 (East) ~ 5 years Survival Curve to First Birth (percentage childless by age) Cohort 1972 (West)

20. Family Dynamics after 1990 Source: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007) Childlessness at age 38 in East and West Germany Cohort 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 193519401945195019551960 26% 14% 20% 1965 East Germany West Germany

21. Fertility Dynamics after 1990 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Percentage of Non-Marital Births 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 19401950196019701980199020002010 19% 34% 10% East Germany West Germany

22. Fertility Dynamics after 1990 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Percentage of Non-Marital Births 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 19401950196019701980199020002010 19% 34% 59% 10% 23% East Germany West Germany

23. Family Dynamics after 1990 Source: miicro-census (own estimations) West GermanyEast Germany No degree Vocational University degree 14% 8% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 197619821989199620002004 No degree Vocational degree University degree 64% 39% 21% 26% 18% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 197619821991199620002004 Non-marital parenthood by women’s education (% of unmarried mothers*) by final education [women aged 15-45 with children below age 3 )]

24. Conclusions Family Formation Dramatic increase in age at first birth compared to GDR-times However: East Germans are still younger at first birth than West Germans  Crisis of East or West German behavior? Non-Marital Fertility Unexpected increase in non-marital fertilty in the East after 1990  Persisting East-West- Differences in family structure  No „adaptation“ to West German constraints?

25. “The more liberal attitudes towards out-of- wedlock childbearing – already more accepted in the rest of Europe– could disrupt the more traditional West German pattern of family formation” (Heilig/Büttner/ Lutz 1990) Conclusions Percentage of Non-Marital Births in 2004 Source: Council of Europe

26. Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung www.demogr.mpg.de