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Maasai fertility: Kenya-Tanzania comparisons Impacts of land-use policy on environment, wildlife, demography and socio-economic indicators in east African savannas: the Serengeti Ecological Unit University College London Kenya Wildlife Service University of Dar Es Salaam Catholic University of Louvain European Union [Grant No. IC18-CT976-0070]; Parkes Foundation
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“Everyone “knows” the Maasai” (Spear, 1993:1) Ethnographic writing/ Filming Colonial records Tourism Photography Conservation
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Sum of demographic knowledge... AuthorMethodInformation Philip (1930) ?Average parity 3.4 births per woman McKay (1950) ?Average parity 3.2 births per woman Jacobs (1973) GuessAverage parity 8 births per woman Kramer (1980) ?Mean age at first marriage = 16.6yrs (f) de Vries (1984) ?IMR “probably falls between 120 0 / 00 and the 1910 figure of 300 0 / 00 ” Nangawe (1985) ?IMR 355 0 / 00 Megan (1994) ?IMR 186 0 / 00
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Extent of “Maasailand”
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Campbell (1979) “population growth rate of the Maasai is 2.2%…this is an estimate made by […] who has spent many years studying health- related issues in Maasailand”
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Data collection Single Round Demographic Survey Sampling frames Unavailable/ out of date Sampling strategy Availability Research instrument Pre-tested questionnaire Enumeration unit Household Enumerators Locally recruited Maasai Sample size 14,928 individuals 1,565 households 2,828 women aged 15-49
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Map of study sites
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Issues of data collection Enumerators Reference to death Age Counting Paternity El Niño No widowers Birth history
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Adult female mortality Widowhood question: “Is your first wife still alive?”XXX Orphanhood question: “Is your biological mother alive?”
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Widowhood data
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Maternal Orphanhood Data
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Maternal Mortality Maternal death = misdemeanour Based on reports of adult sisters Lifetime risk = 1 in 40 1 in 4 of all reported adult sister deaths was due to maternal causes Pregnancy behaviour
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Adult male mortality Widowhood question: “Is your first husband still alive?” Orphanhood question: “Is your biological father alive?”XXX
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Widowhood data
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Male life expectancy at birth MaasaiNational Kenya54.355.3 Tanzania52.148.1
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Early age mortality - expectations RaiseLower Nutritional stressPopulation density Healthcare Living environment
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Early age mortality 1 q 04 q 1 Kenya1738 Tanzania1739 (per 1,000 live births)
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Sexual initiation
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Children represent For men Power and influence (political and social) “How can a man without children advise others as to how best to command others?” “The status of an elder ultimately hinges on the fertility of his wives” For women Access to livestock Security in widowhood
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Fertility data Collected from all ever-married women “Brass” questions on ceb-cs Births in the last 12 months
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Data Quality: Cumulative asfr v. mean reported parity
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Mean reported parity
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TFR (p/f ratio) by location
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TFR in national contexts MaasaiNational Rural Kenya8.25.2 Tanzania6.46.3
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Kenya-Tanzania fertility differential nuptiality* lactational amenorrhea sterility* abortion contraception fecundability abstinence
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Female age at first marriage KenyaTanzania Median17.017.0 SMAM17.318.9
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Current female marital status Kenya Tanzania
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Sterility “It is said…that…the Masai females are becoming increasingly sterile” (1902) “Sterility before marriage and after miscarriage has resulted in a greatly decreased birth rate” (1930) “Healthworkers hold that venereal diseases are rampant in the Maasai communities” (1999)
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Sterility Primary sterility Kenya2.9% Tanzania1.8% Secondary sterility Up to age 44 higher levels in Tanzanian Maasai than Kenyan Maasai
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Age specific secondary sterility rates, by country
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Kenya fertility
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Kenyan fertility differentials NarokKajiado Land tenureSub-divisionCommunal Grp. R, Outside interest(s)TourismExtremely limited Wheat farming Land grabbing Agri. PotentialHigh and risingVery restricted Circumcised sonsVery advantageousUnchanged Ecol. sustainabilityFallingUnchanged
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Natural Increase (% p.a.) KenyaTanzaniaBoth National2.893.22- Maasai (Census)4.46n/a- Maasai (Survey)--3.9
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