1. October 2012 Michael Field Mike.Field@adamsmithinternational.com Learning to Achieve Results Market Assistance Programme, Kenya

2. What Results Are We Looking For? 2 A. EARLY ADOPTERS B. EARLY MAJORITY BREADTH DEPTH D. SOLUTION-SEEKING C. ADAPTATION

3. High-level Impact Time Project Lifetime Phase 1Phase 2Phase 3Phase 4 Market systems project impact profile Direct intervention impact profile Market System Compared to Traditional Programme

4. High-level Impact Time Project Lifetime Phase 1Phase 2Phase 3Phase 4 Market systems project impact profile Direct intervention impact profile What I Need to Track How the change process happened is a better predictor of future results

5. Learning Framework Theory of Change Results Chains Learning Process

6. Theory of Change 6 General definition: Theories of Change posit the underlying causes that are driving poor performance and resulting limited benefits accruing to the poor. Theories of Change then provide an overview of the systemic change needed to improve performance, with a specific focus on how the poor will benefit from improved performance.

7. Cotton Theory of Change Three interconnected systemic weaknesses that are driving poor performance within the cotton market system would need to change 1.Enabling environment that is more transparent, evidence driven and participatory 2.Supply chain management models that are more performance driven 3.Retail inputs management models that are more customer oriented and solution driven

8. Cotton Results Chains Upgrade capacity to deliver Shift Ginners Supply Chain Strategy Shift Retail Inputs Strategy Shift CODA Strategy Upgrade capacity to deliver Evidence Driven Shared Decision Making Performance Based Incentives Drive Behaviour Customer Oriented Operational Focus Greater Alignment of Market Incentives that Drives Improved Performance Throughout the Market System

9. Pathway of Change = Results 9 Number & types of actors engaged BREADTH Number & types of functions & level of adaptation DEPTH EntryTrial & pilot Copying & crowding-in Exit Performance – capacity and practice Rules and incentives Relationships – core/interconnected Ownership of change process

10. Pathway of Change = Results 10 Number & types of actors engaged BREADTH Number & types of functions & level of adaptation DEPTH MOMENTUM towards Pro-Poor Growth Multi-faceted LEVERAGED Interventions EntryTrial & pilot Copying & crowding-in Exit Solution Seeking Performance – capacity and practice Rules and incentives Relationships – core/interconnected Ownership of change process

11. Project Management and Staff Assess Against Results Chains Observations Collective Learning Drives Follow-on Facilitation Activities Learning Process Behaviors Market Not Working for the Poor Market Working for the Poor TIME

12. Project Management and Staff Assess Against Results Chains Observations Collective Learning Drives Follow-on Facilitation Activities Learning Process Behaviors M&E and Facilitation Teams Integrated – Knowledge Management: Quarterly team reviews against results chain – rolling portfolio review Team and project exchanges to constantly test hypothesis of results chain Managerial practices that create an appropriate operating culture that learns and adapts Tacit knowledge capture Explicit knowledge capture Market Not Working for the Poor Market Working for the Poor TIME

13. Behaviors Project Management and Staff Assess Against Results Chains Observed Behaviors Collective Learning Drives Follow-on Facilitation Activities Facilitation Activities Adjusted Market Not Working for the Poor Market Working for the Poor TIME Learning Cycle

14. Key Take Away Messages Results = System Capacity To Solution Seek = Sustainability The overall strategy grounded in the theory of change The results chains provide the learning framework and drive which indicators are key – behaviour change, process indicators that show: Ownership of change processes, i.e., adaptation Practice and capacity especially around evidence seeking for decision making Changes in rules and relationships that drive solution seeking behaviours The pace of the learning cycle is critical and depends on management practices/operating culture that values evidence and learning