1. The Wisconsin River TMDL: Linking Monitoring and Modeling Ann Hirekatur, Pat Oldenburg, & Adam Freihoefer March 7, 2013 Wisconsin River TMDL Project Team WDNR Bureau of Water Quality

2. The Wisconsin River Basin (WRB)

3. The WRB – A managed system http://www.lakenokomiscc.org

4. Water Quality Concerns within the WRB Petenwell and Castle Rock Flowages Fish Kills in Big Eau Pleine Reservoir Dells of the Eau Claire Runoff in the Baraboo

5. Pollutant Sources within the WRB Nonpoint Sources Non-MS4 Stormwater Agricultural Runoff Rill, Gully, & Bank Erosion Construction Barnyards Point Sources Municipal WasteIndustrial Waste

6. WRB Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Waste Load Allocation Municipal Wastewater Industrial Wastewater Stormwater (MS4s) Load Allocation Runoff from the landscape Background Load Naturally occurring from wetlands, forests Load Allocation Waste Load Allocation Margin of Safety TMDL ++ Each subwatershed is assessed for:

7. Components of the WRB TMDL Monitoring Flow Chemistry In-lakeConceptualization Data Analysis Windshield SurveysModeling Watershed Point Sources Fate and Transport ReservoirsAllocations Load Wasteload Margin of Safety Draft TMDL Internal Review Public Comment Final TMDL EPA Approval Implementation Civic Engagement Public Outreach/Communications

8. Past Activities in the WRB 19952000200520102015 1996 Petenwell Castle Rock Comprehensive Management Plan 2001 WDNR/USACE develop joint TMDL monitoring proposal for $1.5 million. Proposal not funded 2004 WDNR proposal to USEPA for river water quality monitoring. Proposal not funded 2008 First Pontoons and Politics at Petenwell Castle Rock 2010 WNDR receives Section 22 Planning Assistance from USACE 2009 – 2013 Wisconsin River TMDL Monitoring 2009 State legislature appropriates $750,000 ($150,000/yr. for 5 years) for monitoring upstream of Castle Rock WisconsinRiverTMDL

9. Monitoring The WRB Monitoring - Modeling Relationship Conceptualization

10. WRB Monitoring Approach Critical Idea Design a monitoring plan that provides an understanding of the system and supports the modeling of the watershed & reservoirs

11. WRB Monitoring Approach = ungauged tributary area Tributary Watershed Loads 19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

12. WRB Monitoring Approach Tributary Watershed Loads 19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality Phosphorus Evaluation Sites 98 stations with monthly P samples between May – October 2012 with 31 sites proposed for re-sample in 2013

13. WRB Monitoring Approach Tributary Watershed Loads 19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality Phosphorus Evaluation Sites 98 stations with monthly P samples between May – October 2012 with 31 sites proposed for re-sample in 2013 Main stem Loads 13 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

14. WRB Monitoring Approach Tributary Watershed Loads 19 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality Phosphorus Evaluation Sites 98 stations with monthly P samples between May – October 2012 with 31 sites proposed for re-sample in 2013 Reservoirs 5 major reservoirs Big Eau Pleine, Lake Dubay, Petenwell, Castle Rock, & Lake Wisconsin Main stem Loads 13 stations with daily discharge & bi-monthly water quality

15. Simulates conditions on landscape each day based on climate data Input data intensive Output information is provided for each subwatershed defined (TMDL reach) Outputs include crop yields, discharge, sediment, & water chemistry WRB Model Approach – Watershed

16. WATERSHED MODEL Watershed Model Calibrated Outputs Hydrography Flow accumulation, Internal drainage, groundwater 2009 – 2013 Conditions Topography Slope Soils Type and Attributes Climate Precipitation, Temp, etc. Land Management Agriculture, Urban Land Cover Model Input Model Output Point Sources Model Calibration Required

17. Petenwell Bathymetry (Developed by USACE) WRB Model Approach – Reservoir

18. Model Inputs Reservoir Model Outputs RESERVOIR MODEL Model Calibration Required Watershed Model Calibrated Outputs Model Input Model Output

19. WRB Model Approach – Model Calibration Calibration is process of matching the simulation to measured data Modeler adjusts model parameters to allow for better fit Input Parameter Controls

20. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models 1.Assess the daily flow and TP concentrations 2.Use regression model to estimate monthly TP load, referred to as “measured load” 3.Compare the watershed model “simulated load” to the “measured load”. Adjust the model to reflect measured conditions, a process referred to as model calibration Tributary Loads P Evaluation SitesRiver LoadsReservoirs Dill Creek - Big Eau Pleine River

21. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary Loads P Evaluation SitesRiver LoadsReservoirs

22. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary Loads P Evaluation SitesRiver LoadsReservoirs

23. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary Loads P Evaluation SitesRiver LoadsReservoirs EXAMPLE

24. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary Loads P Evaluation Sites River LoadsReservoirs

25. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary LoadsP Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs Same approach as the tributary loads (daily discharge, bi-monthly water quality)

26. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary LoadsP Evaluation Sites River Loads Reservoirs Same approach as the tributary loads (daily discharge, bi-monthly water quality) EXAMPLE

27. Integrating Monitoring Data into Models Tributary LoadsP Evaluation SitesRiver LoadsReservoirs EXAMPLE

28. Wrap-Up The scale of the Wisconsin River TMDL required more monitoring sites, frequency Defining the question and the methods used at the start improved the project’s monitoring design. Each part of the TMDL (monitoring, load calculations, watershed modeling) introduces uncertainty. In many cases, a robust monitoring dataset improves our understanding and limits the uncertainty with respect to the model results.

29. Questions? Contact the Wisconsin River TMDL Project Team dnrwisconsinrivertmdl@wisconsin.gov