1. Hale & Tempest The Global Pharmaceutical Industry (MNC & Generic) in Transition Dr. Brian W Tempest www.briantempest.com The Global Generic Summit – Barcelona, Spain 5 th March 2009

2. Hale & Tempest Healthcare pressures out to 2050

3. Hale & Tempest GDP Decline & Economic Melt Down

4. Hale & Tempest Public Health Reform Continues

5. Hale & Tempest Rising R&D Budgets

6. Hale & Tempest Big Pharma Sales Cocentration

7. Hale & Tempest But the Product Pipeline..

8. Hale & Tempest Mergers Don’t Produce Synergy

9. Hale & Tempest Sources: AXA Framlington Company Expiry 2010 Expiry 2012 Expiry 2011 PfizerAricept - $800mLipitor - $12.1bn Xalatan - $1.6bn Viagra - $1.7bn Detrol - $860m Geodon - $1.1bn Astra ZenecaArimidex - $2.2bnSeroquel - $4.7bnSymbicort - $3.7bn Sanofi-AventisTaxotere - $2bnUS Plavix - $3.8bn Avapro - $2.1bn Lovenox - $3.1bn BMSUS Plavix - $4.8bn Avapro - $1.3bn Abilify - $2.1bn GSKAdvair - $3.8bnAvandia - $2.5bn Patent Expiry Dates 41% 38% 34% 30% 23% % at Risk

10. Hale & Tempest USA New Brand Products

11. Hale & Tempest Sector Enquiry – R&D expenses

12. Hale & Tempest 45,000 Pharma Jobs

13. Hale & Tempest double digit growth to single growth focus on 7 developed markets to 7 emerging markets primary care to specialists, small molecules to biotech EU Sector Enquiry a slump in R&D innovation - the next 5 years being similar $84b patent expiries in 2010, 2011, 2012 15 out of 18 top companies have announced restructuring Big Pharma in Transition

14. Hale & Tempest Sources: 1.IMS Midas, March 2005 2.Earth Trend Data Tables 2005 82% of the World population accounts for only 12% of the Global Pharma sales RegionPharma SalesPopulation North America Europe Japan $255 b 47% $158 b 30% $59 b 11% 332 5% 725 11% 128 2% Asia/Africa/Aus Latam 88% $41 b 8% $20 b 4% 18% 4711 73% 558 9% 12% 82% Worldwide$533 b 100%6454 100%

15. Hale & Tempest Generic Industry Consolidation

16. Hale & Tempest The Asian Race to Prosperity

17. Hale & Tempest Indian Healthcare’s 1987 Companies

18. Hale & Tempest The Education Advantage

19. Hale & Tempest India – USA Expansion

20. Hale & Tempest Chinese Healthcare 3751 Companies

21. Hale & Tempest China Global Generic Companies

22. Hale & Tempest Japan - Generics supported by Gov

23. Hale & Tempest Competition is rising, India feels confidant and strong A number of major European Generic Companies for sale Focus in the hospital Injectables sector First Chinese ANDA Branded-Generic FTC deals are growing M&A – 5 big pharma evaluating generic targets Indian Manufacturing units to double from 2000 to 2010 Generic Companies in Transition

24. Hale & Tempest % Share of Global Growth – IMS

25. Hale & Tempest Sources: Goldman Sachs 2007 Top 5 Global Pharma Markets 2020 RankCountrySize 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. USA China Japan France India $ 475b $ 125b $ 61b $ 51b $ 43b

26. Hale & Tempest Germany – Payers Contracting

27. Hale & Tempest Number of Almus Suppliers

28. Hale & Tempest USA – A New President

29. Hale & Tempest A New World Order

30. Hale & Tempest KSR vs. Teleflex USA Supreme Court decision USA Bilateral FTAs amended –Columbia, Peru, Panama Compulsory Licensing by Thailand, Canada under WTO German reimbursement review, UK PPRS, Poland, Hungary FDA setting up offices in China, India, ME, SA, EU Brazil generics booming, Japan generics rising Impact of wholesaler brands and pharmacy chains West Europe vs. Central/East Europe vs. South Europe Pharma Markets in Transition

31. Hale & Tempest In this Era of Transition & Change for Big Pharma, Generics & Markets there is a Serious Search for Profitable Sectors and Profitable Competitive Strategies

32. Hale & Tempest The Tempest Crystal Ball India will continue to be a Key Driver in the Global Generic Industry Competition is rising – Post TRIPs Indian companies will evolve Discovery companies will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC, MO. China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ tox IP changes in US, EU & Developing World will slowly favor Generics Alliances between Western Biotech and Asians companies will expand. M&A PE deals will grow How to use Asia will become the key opportunity

33. Hale & Tempest Thank You