1. EUCOS The EUMETNET Composite Observing System Stuart Goldstraw – EUCOS Operations Manager Thanks to Jacqui Rogers, EUCOS Technical Co-ordinator

2. Page 2© Crown copyright 2004 Contents 1)What are EUMETNET and EUCOS 2)Programme Overview 3)Requirements 4)Operational Issues – focussing on ASAP 5)Studies Programme

3. Page 3© Crown copyright 2004 What is EUMETNET? EUMETNET is a network grouping of 21 National Met Services in Europe that provides a framework to organise operational and developmental co-operative programmes between Services. It provides a framework to organise funded co-operative programmes between the Members in areas such as:  Observing  Data processing  Basic forecasting products  Research and development  Training packages

4. Page 4© Crown copyright 2004 The current EUMETNET Members  Austria  Belgium  Cyprus  Denmark  Finland  France  Germany  Greece  Hungary  Iceland  Ireland  Italy  Latvia  Luxembourg  Netherlands  Norway  Portugal  Spain  Sweden  Switzerland  United Kingdom

5. Page 5© Crown copyright 2004 Current GNI shares of the Members  Austria2.2%  Belgium2.7%  Cyprus0.1%  Denmark1.8%  Finland1.4%  France15.9%  Germany21.7%  Greece1.5%  Hungary0.6%  Iceland0.1%  Ireland1.1%  Italy12.8%  Latvia0.1%  Luxemburg0.2%  Netherlands4.5%  Norway2.0%  Portugal1.3%  Spain7.4%  Sweden2.6%  Switzerland3.1%  UK16.9%

6. Page 6© Crown copyright 2004 What is EUCOS  EUCOS is the EUMETNET Composite Observing System. A programme to deliver terrestrially based operational observations for the efficient improvement of NWP in Europe.  The EUCOS Programme consists of fully cost compensated activities, such as E-AMDAR, significantly cost compensated activities such as E-ASAP and E-SURFMAR and co-ordination of voluntary contributions such as radiosonde and surface networks.  In addition studies to determine future requirements and quality monitoring and support activities for the operational programme is also provided by the programme.  EUCOS success relies heavily on the continued support of the Members – it only works because the Members want it to work.

7. Page 7© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS: Serving the Regional Scale NWP requirement for observations over the European region EUCOS: Contributes to Medium and extended range weather prediction over the Globe Provides a framework for Very short range and nowcasting over national territories EUCOS in the wider context

8. Page 8© Crown copyright 2004 The Challenge & Strategy for EUCOS  To improve the quality and make more cost effective observations for the enhancement of regional NWP performance in the 1 to 3 day forecast period in the European area of interest.  Achieved through resource transfer from the relatively well observed territorial areas to the poorly observed territorial and predominantly maritime areas.  Achieved by EUMETNET Members committing themselves to co-funding the programme through a fair (GNI) cost sharing system.

9. Page 9© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS – Area of Observing Interest

10. Page 10© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS – Area of Observational Interest

11. Page 11© Crown copyright 2004 DMI Operational model set up

12. Page 12© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS Programme Overview

13. Page 13© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS Programme Overview Deliver the agreed observations needed by the Members including quality monitoring and recovery activities

14. Page 14© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS Programme Overview Deliver the agreed observations needed by the Members Define requirements and develop new capabilities

15. Page 15© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS Programme Overview Deliver the agreed observations needed by the Members Define requirements and develop new capabilities Build and extend relationships for the future

16. Page 16© Crown copyright 2004 Governance of EUCOS Programme

17. Page 17© Crown copyright 2004 Operational Programme Development 1) Start up phase – technology demonstration*, negotiation with Members and Suppliers, agreeing common operating practices, reviewing requirements and proposing a way forward. 2) Initial Operational Phase – implement recommendations from ‘1’, set simple performance targets, evaluate impact on performances and value for money from programme. 3) Mature Operational Phase – review programme following experiences gained from ‘2’. Targets now more specific, geographical rather than just quantities.

18. Page 18© Crown copyright 2004 Current upper air requirements Table 1: Upper Air Observational Requirements for Regional NWP - Current ElementPositionAccuracy (o, b, t) Vertical Resolution (km) (o, b, t) Horizontal Resolution (km) (o, b, t) Temperature (K)LT0.5, -, 3.00.3, -, 310, -, 500 UT1.0, -, 3 LS Wind Vector (m/s)LT1.0, -, 5.00.4, -, 5 UT1.0, -, 10 LS Water Vapour (%)LT5, -, 200.4, -, 210, -, 100 UT1.0, -, 3

19. Page 19© Crown copyright 2004 Newly stated European requirements Table 2: Upper Air Observational Requirements for Regional NWP – up to 2015 ElementPositionAccuracy (o, b, t) Vertical Resolution (km) (o, b, t) Horizontal Resolution (km) (o, b, t) Temperature (K)LT 0.5, -, 1.5 0.1, 1, 23, 30, 200 UT LS Wind Vector (m/s)LT 1.0, -, 3.0 UT LS Water Vapour (%)LT 5, -, 10 UT

20. Page 20© Crown copyright 2004 Newly stated requirements - changes Table 2: Upper Air Observational Requirements for Regional NWP – up to 2015 ElementPositionAccuracy (o, b, t) Vertical Resolution (km) (o, b, t) Horizontal Resolution (km) (o, b, t) Temperature (K)LT 0.5, -, 1.5 0.1, 1, 23, 30, 200 UT LS Wind Vector (m/s)LT 1.0, -, 3.0 UT LS Water Vapour (%)LT 5, -, 10 UT

21. Page 21© Crown copyright 2004 Early definition of sensitive areas

22. Page 22© Crown copyright 2004 Northern Europe sensitive areas - summer

23. Page 23© Crown copyright 2004 Northern Europe sensitive areas - winter

24. Page 24© Crown copyright 2004 Southern Europe sensitive areas - summer

25. Page 25© Crown copyright 2004 Southern Europe sensitive areas - winter

26. Page 26© Crown copyright 2004 MEDEX: Mediterranean Cyclones

27. Page 27© Crown copyright 2004 Operational Programme Areas  E-AMDAR – tasked with delivering the European wide AMDAR data requirement, approx 12M observations pa. Budget 1.4M€ pa  E-ASAP – tasked with delivering the oceanic radiosonde programme, approx 5000 profiles pa from 16 ASAP units. Budget 1.9M€  E-SURFMAR – tasked with delivering improved surface pressure measurement coverage in Oceanic region. Budget 0.9M€  Territorial Radiosonde – targets established for a subset of Members radiosonde stations in terms of data volumes, quality, height of ascent and timeliness. Budget 0.2M€  Surface Networks – targets focussed on basic met parameters – those that can be assimilated by NWP systems. No Budget!

28. Page 28© Crown copyright 2004 Network Quality Monitoring  If we are investing significant amounts of money making observations we should also invest in ensuring the observations meet the requirements and poor quality data is identified and, where possible, corrective action is undertaken.  EUCOS quality monitoring is reliant on using NWP background fields for assessing the quality of the observations.  Upper Air parameters monitored included:  Timeliness, both threshold and breakthrough levels  Availability of data, compared with assumed operational programme  100hPa Height, Temperature and U & V wind vectors  Burst height for radiosonde network  Location for AMDAR aircraft – when at Airports

29. Page 29© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP - Oceanic Upper-Air Segment E-ASAP Programme Manager Rudolf Krockauer (DWD)

30. Page 30© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP Programme Challenges  Operating an ASAP system is not straightforward. Managing an ASAP network is a challenge. Multiple ships, multiple systems, multiple ‘home’ ports, launching problems and just when the crews are fully trained they change.  Senior Management have little understanding of the operation of ASAP – some even assume ASAPs are fully automatic! Therefore they cannot understand the cost of the programme.  Modern NWP assimilation systems have difficulties dealing with isolated radiosonde profiles. More so in critical conditions. Fortunately this had been recognised (finally) and now forms one of the activities within the European THORPEX science plan  In the future the ASAP programme will become more adaptive, responding to targeting instructions from NWP sensitivity calculations.

31. Page 31© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP Launcher positions

32. Page 32© Crown copyright 2004 Reduction in loss rates!

33. Page 33© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP - Soundings in September 2005

34. Page 34© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP - Soundings on 18 th June 2005

35. Page 35© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP - Soundings on 29 th June 2005

36. Page 36© Crown copyright 2004 E-ASAP Density Plot

37. Page 37© Crown copyright 2004 EUCOS – Studies Programme  The EUCOS Studies Programme is designed to enable objective decisions to be made about the evolution of the operational observing networks to support regional NWP  Are the correct parameters being observed?  Is the current network configuration optimised?  Where should future investments be made?  What weaknesses exist and how should they be tackled?  Current Studies Programme activities include  Targeted observing development  Space – Terrestrial Observing System Experiments  Revised Network Design Evaluation  Technology Demonstrations

38. Page 38© Crown copyright 2004 Space - Terrestrial Study Programme A 2-year EUMETNET / EUMETSAT study to quantify the relative impacts on NWP of the components of the space and terrestrial observing sub-systems.  EUCOS will deliver the evaluation of the terrestrial components in conjunction with DMI, ECMWF, Met.No, UK Met Office and OMSZ  In addition to the impacts of radiosonde, AMDAR and Wind Profilers the study will also seek to identify the specific impact of the E-ASAP and E-AMDAR data on the quality of European regional scale NWP products.  Results are out and a report will be published in early 2007.

39. Page 39© Crown copyright 2004 Impact of Wind Profilers on NWP

40. Thank you for your attention