1. An Organization-based Approach to Explaining Current Trends in the Middle East and North Africa Circa March 2011 Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations

2. Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior – Middle East

3. Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism Organizations professing a democratic ideology are significantly less likely engage in terrorism Organizations with the following characteristics are more likely to engage in terrorism: – Separatism – Rhetoric justifying violence – Foreign Support – State Repression Organizations that do not have a democratic ideology and have all the factors above have an 89% likelihood of engaging in terrorism

4. AFOSR Evaluation Meeting - Oct 20, 2008 4 MAR and MAROB Minority at Risk group MAROB organizations Kurds in IraqKurdistan Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Kurdish Revolutionary Hezbollah, etc. Palestinians in Occupied Territories HAMAS, Fatah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, etc. Shia in LebanonHezbollah, Amal

5. AFOSR Evaluation Meeting - Oct 20, 2008 5 Annual MAROB Data Ethno-political Organization Organizational Characteristics  Type of Leadership  Ideology  Grievances Organization-State Relations  Does state repress organization?  Has state reached agreement with organization? External Support  Diaspora  Foreign State  NGO  IGO Organizational Behavior  Nonviolent Behavior (Electoral politics, protests)  Violence (Violent rhetoric, Targets, Location, violent repertoire)  Involvement in Criminal Networks Data Sources  International Media  Gov’t and NGO reports  Academic studies

6. 6 Figure 1: Shifts in Ideology of Ethnopolitical Organizations

7. 7 Figure 2: Strategies of Ethnopolitical Organizations 1980-2004

8. 8 Figure 3: The Use of Terror by Organizations 1980-2004