1. Analysis of NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest… for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC G. Burger, Climate Scientist, PCIC H. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC J. Hiebert, Computing Support, PCIC 2011 NARCCAP User’s Meeting Boulder, Colorado, USA 08 APR 2011

2. 1980-1999 Winter Climatology – NCEP2, CRU, RCM ensemble

3. 1980-1999 Winter Climatology – NCEP, CRU, RCM ensemble

6. 2050s change GCM vs. RCM

7. Change in extreme day of period

8. Projected 10 th /90 th percentiles

9. 2050s projected 100-yr return period

11. Summary RCMs useful tools for decision making in areas of complex topography and steep climate gradients – Improvements from NCEP2 ~225 km (2.5⁰) to 50 km – Biases comparable to difference between observations Future (winter) projections – warmer, wetter, large changes to extreme temperatures Analysis of extremes underway  need ensemble with multiple RCMs driven by multiple GCMs

12. Data sources North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb) NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc. CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high- resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181. Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data

13. Acknowledgments Hailey Eckstrand – GIS wizard Seth McGinnis – NARCCAP support Gerd Burger & James Hiebert – Analysis of extremes Dave Bronaugh – GCM data Katrina Bennett – VIC historical dataset 13 Thank you Comments, questions, criticism: tmurdock@uvic.catmurdock@uvic.ca More info on PCIC: www.PacificClimate.orgwww.PacificClimate.org