2. Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director Experience Source Material Studio Genre Release Date

3. Summary Statistics Winning Nominees MeanMinimumMaximumMedianStandard Deviation Revenue 24243846116894615 805056171 185472335188485606 Budget4756915341580002680000003630000046985166 Running Time 144.599321913333.34 Days released before ceremony 170.466840912995.65

4. MeanMinimumMaximumMedianStandard Deviation Revenue18167119714719007213885000092361268274189636 Budget3921283124400001755000002889300034417879 Running Time 131.988419412823.88 Days released before ceremony 187.3457444135.5113.86 Losing Nominees Summary Statistics

5. P Values of Numerical Data at 95% Confidence VariableH0H0 H1H1 P Value Adjusted Revenue μ winners -μ losers =0 μ winners- μ losers >0.0680 Adjusted Budget μ winners- μ losers =0 μ winners – μ losers >0.1577 Days from Ceremony μ winners - μ losers =0.1880 Running Time μ winners -μ losers =0.0175 Hypothesis Testing

6. The Models VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept-0.0540788190.84446358 Adjusted Revenue1.35159E-100.393175424 Adjusted Budget-8.61494E-100.476716168 Days from release to award-0.0001114170.753687073 Running Time0.0041665880.023103215 Experienced Director-0.2035953730.00943012 Comedy-0.1164114560.390173456 Drama-0.1134573940.251954524 Thriller-0.2476098640.048548348 True Story-0.121307570.184288749 Original-0.0505867490.541565801 Major Studio0.0667142240.401458856 I II VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept0.0408025050.893999887 Adjusted Revenue2.36975E-100.139422768 Adjusted Budget-1.05117E-090.404673533 Days from release to award-0.0002139410.554735116 Running Time0.0040219130.035814871 Experienced Director-0.2041735470.011267886 Comedy-0.0526079030.704574964 Drama-0.1373273640.197759074 Thriller-0.2089466060.109480834 Book-0.0816657510.425362212 Original-0.1096069720.321524509 20th Century Fox-0.1260514020.356073307 Paramount0.0382240730.751105378 Universal-0.0777441910.544868525 United Artists0.0521267110.742051527 Columbia-0.0766826080.570921554 Warner Bros0.044804580.741121559 VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept-0.2116873020.25445443 Running Time0.0045577020.0013287 Experienced Director-0.1883806590.0128017 Thriller-0.1352051220.17707669 True Story-0.1204027990.15641439 R Squared F-Testn Model I 0.1494176 4 0.16022779 9 143 Model II 0.1432302 65 0.03408357 7 143 Model III 0.1120909 62 0.00239139 8 143 III

7. Ŷ= 0.004557702x 1 -0.188380659x 2 - 0.135205122x 3 -0.120402799x 4 -0.211687302 x 1 = running time x 2 =experienced director (1,0) x 3 =Thriller (1,0) x 4 =True Story (1,0) Our Equation

8. Overall… Average ŷ Winners.358 Losers.242

9. Filmŷ Patton*.465 Airport.08 Five Easy Pieces.23 Love Story.23 M*A*S*H.298 1970

10. Filmŷ Slumdog Millionaire.335 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*.54 Frost/Nixon.04 Milk.0629 The Reader.16 2008

11. Conclusions The strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar Winnings We showed that the common assertion that films with release dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is likely a myth Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in Data. You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.

12. Credits Lead Excel Technician Warren Brown-Pounds Assistant Excel TechnicianBryce Gerard Data CollectionGrisel Zuniga Warren Brown- Pounds Bryce Gerard Regression AnalystsWarren Brown-Pounds Bryce Gerard Data Provided By imdb.com boxofficemojo.com PowerPoint DesignBryce GerardBased on an Idea byBryce Gerard Special Thanks to: Rajat Gupta