1. SURF Conference : The Future for Communities What could be the economic factors we need to be aware of ? Ewan Mearns Scottish Enterprise

2. The story so far... What kind of economy has been sustaining Scotland’s communities in the recent past ?

3. Changing Economic Structure 1950’s 25 Shipyards 113 Coal mines 6 Steel works 0% world’s oil Employment:  35% manufacturing  45% services  6% business services 2000’s 4 Shipyards 0 Coal mines 0 Steel works 3% of world’s oil 40% of EU’s PCs Employment  15% manufacturing  75% services  21% business services

9. A changing (but under-performing) economy... Relative transition from a traditional manufacturing to a service and knowledge-based economy importance of foreign investors to manufacturing employment and productivity Scottish GDP growth and productivity lagging behind UK (and competitors) … and gap widening declining unemployment during 1990s

10. … but with encouraging signs of future growth the emergence of new sectors of economic activity strong growth in service-sector jobs commercialisation of academic knowledge more young people entering FE/HE more recently, a stable macro-economic environment

11. New jobs and activities Financial services  Scotland 6th largest equity centre in Europe Biotechnology  home to 20% of UK biotech companies, employing 24,000 Optoelectronics  employs 5,000 people, 60% output exported Creative industries  digital media, games, Edinburgh Festival injects £120m annually

13. More people entering FE/HE

14. Some drivers of future economic change

15. The changing nature of ‘value’ in the economy Increasing importance of ‘intangibles’ in creating value:  software, services (with products), speed, ideas/creativity, brands/trust, experience etc. New ways of doing business  mass customisation eg Dell, Dulux  knowledge management eg Skandia  innovative business models eg Egg, e-Bay, Dyson  brands and values eg Intel, Nike  experience eg Disney

16. A more global, networked economy differential cost of labour  the end of the ‘assembly plant’ era in Scotland much closer ties between national economies  vulnerability to economic shocks a smaller, ‘connected’ world  agglomeration effects

17. More demanding and prosperous consumers Source: ONS From mass production to mass customisation

18. People, skills and talent Importance of ‘know how’ vs ‘know what’ in the knowledge- based economy Future skills trends  core skills : basic skills; communication skills; problem-solving, planning and teamwork; IT skills  occupations : managers; public sector professionals; elementary caring and service occupations Talent as key; diversity as driver It’s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent but the ones most responsive to change Charles Darwin

19. The rise of the creative class Richard Florida says: innovation flourishes in places that attract creative people, places with the following attributes :  critical mass of cultural and natural assets  open attitude to new and unconventional ideas and people  cultural eco-system - many forms of creativity take root and flourish  attract new and different kinds of people  make rapid transmission of knowledge & ideas easy  have low barriers to entry – economic, social, civic creativity drives innovation innovation is the key to sustained economic growth

22. How can Scotland’s communities become more successful in the future economy ?

23. Foster a supportive environment for enterprise more new and growing small businesses host to new/emerging activities eg social enterprise, digital media more diversified local economies exploiting academic knowledge no low-tech industries, only low-tech companies new sources of value … not just high-tech importance of global connectivity

24. Be home to diverse and adaptable people openness, willingness to change attracting, retaining - and losing - a diverse range of people new ideas and influences making the most of our human capital enthusiasm for learning - across all ages