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Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1 Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid La economía de agua de riego 24 Septiembre 2008

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Presentation on theme: "Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1 Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid La economía de agua de riego 24 Septiembre 2008"— Presentation transcript:

1 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1 Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid La economía de agua de riego 24 Septiembre 2008 ana.iglesias@upm.es

2 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 2 PESETA (JRC) Adaptation (DG Agri) PICCMAT (6th FP) CIRCE (6th FP) SWAP (6th FP) ClimateCost (7th FP) MEDROPLAN (EuropeAid, MEDA Water)

3 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 3 For the last 10,000 years we have been living in a remarkable stable climate that allowed the whole of the human development to take place In all that time, though the medieval warming and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation of 1ºC Now we see the potential for sudden change of between 2 and 6ºC – We just don’t know what the world is like at those temperatures, we have no idea if we can live in it Adapted from: Robert Corell, The Guardian, Oct 2007

4 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 4 Production in a changing climate Objective: discussion 1.Critical thinking: What does climate change mean for production? –Complex outlook, multiple dimensions –Challenges and opportunities 2.Solutions: What is the best future we can hope for? –Focus on policy integration

5 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 5 Climate impacts Climate dynamics Societal dynamics f Rethinking climate impacts Source: CIRCE

6 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 6 Climate dynamics Observed and projected warming in the EU Source: Stott et al. 2004, Hadley Centre

7 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 7 More extreme events Projected changes in drought risk (%) under the A1B MPI 2070-2100 scenario

8 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 8 Source: Iglesias et al., 2007

9 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 9 # 1. Scenarios: Water supply and demand Iglesias et al. 2008

10 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 10 Climate impacts Climate dynamics Societal dynamics f Rethinking climate impacts Source: CIRCE

11 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 11 Global scale

12 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 12 # 2. Local realities (vulnerabilities)

13 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 13 Local realities (vulnerabilities)

14 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 14 Climate impacts Climate dynamics Societal dynamics f Rethinking climate impacts Source: CIRCE Challenges and opportunities

15 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 15 Challenges and opportunities Regional disparities Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline (Iglesias et al. 2007)

16 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 16 Boreal Expansion of areas and growing season Expansion of weeds, pests, diseases Risk of soil structure loss

17 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 17 Atlantic N Atlantic C Sea level rise Floods, water- logging Summer drought Environmental policy determines the opportunities

18 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 18 # 3. Useful knowledge The role of the human capital, Gary Becker (Nobel Price, 1992) Fuente: OECD http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf

19 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 19 Bordeaux red: Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Carménère, Malbec Atlantic S Decline of high quality crops Regulations may limit opportunities

20 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 20 Balance Carbono en Champagne

21 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 21 Continental N Continental S Heat stress and drought in summer (e.g., 2007) Floods, water-logging Environmental degradation New crops, energy crops

22 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 22 # 4. Flexible risk management The past is not a reliable indicator of the future

23 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 23 Alpine Glacier melt Modification of the hydrological regime with large implications for soil erosion, water availability, etc Further stress to highly vulnerable areas

24 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 24 Med N Med S Water scarcity and drought Conflicts among water users Vulnerability of the complex interactions of agriculture- ecosystems Limitations of rural development

25 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 25 The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change (Stern et al, 2006) Argues that “the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP1 each year” Challenged by many economists with large working experience in climate change (Tol, 2007). Ignores and contradicts numerous unquestionable results (Nicholls and Tol, 2005; Nordhaus, 2006; Sachs, 2001; Fankhauser and Tol, 2005)

26 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 26 Source: Iglesias et al., 2007

27 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 27 Production in a changing climate Objective: discussion 1.Critical thinking: What does climate change mean for production? –Complex outlook, multiple dimensions –Challenges and opportunities 2.Solutions: What is the best future we can hope for? –Focus on policy integration

28 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 28 Climate impacts Climate dynamics Societal dynamics f Rethinking climate impacts Source: CIRCE

29 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 29 Kyoto protocol Lisbon strategy SD strategy EU White Paper on Adaptation CAP – WFD – Nitrates D – Energy D Local initiatives (early stages, dissemination, awareness building) Existing set of policies

30 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 30 Building adaptive capacity  Awareness raising  Research (spatial and time dimension)  Knowledge transfer  Risk management  Policy support in order to deliver adaptation actions

31 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 31 Building adaptive capacity Delivering adaptation actions  Supported by policy  Strategic combination of the CC commitments of various policies  Technology, infrastructure  Changes in land use  Flexible resource management and efficiency

32 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 32 Role of RD (CAP) A flexible framework Axis 1  Farm modernization  Restoring & prevention  Farm advisory services  Training Axis 2  Agri-env measures  Payments linked to WFD Axis 3  Diversification into non- agricultural activities Leader

33 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 33 Natural resources dimension Social dimension Technological dimension Economic dimension Climate policy index Vulnerability Climate change Impacts # 5. Understanding how may policy modify climate risks Define strategic combination of the climate change commitments in the various policies Source: CIRCE

34 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 34 Values range from 0 to 1 High values indicate that current policies decrease potential impacts (the system has increased adaptive capacity, is less vulnerable) Source: CIRCE Climate policy index Algeria0.31 Egypt0.43 France0.62 Israel0.48 Italy0.61 Libya0.30 Morocco0.40 Spain0.55 Syria0.49

35 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 35 Climate impacts on agriculture with different policies HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100 (% yield change respect to baseline) Agric output Adaptation Policy Env (1) Adaptation Farm (2) Adaptation Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3) Mediterranean Europe-50 to -2510 to 20 (1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection and urban development (2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private) (3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural production and rural development Soure: Iglesias et al 2007

36 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 36 What is the best future we can hope for?

37 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 37 Thinking more about … 1.Climate scenarios are not enough 2.Understanding of local vulnerabilities 3.Useful knowledge (involving practitioners, industry) 4.Moving towards a flexible, risk management 5.Understanding how policy modifies climate risks and opportunities Learning how to respond in the long term Learning how to avoid political crisis

38 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 38 Thanks for your attention! ana.iglesias@upm.es

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