1. Pakistan Punjab Female Stipend Program Evaluating the Impact

2. Outline  CCT Program  Evaluation question  Data and methodology  Impact estimates

3. Female Secondary School Stipends  Part of Punjab Education Sector Reform Program (PESRP), World Bank financed education program  PERSP – quality, access and governance  Female Stipends – CCT for middle school started in 2004

4. Stipends Program  Eligibility: girls enrolled in 6-8 grades in government schools in target districts  Target districts: 15 of the 34 districts were chosen based on the district’s female literacy rate  Conditionality: 80% average attendance  Amount: Rs 200 ($3) transferred directly to student via postal money order from EDO

5. Evaluation Question  Impact on enrolments  School switching  Impact across welfare quintiles  School Quality  Externality: male enrolments  Externality: health, marriage, malnutrition

6. Data  Government School Censuses 2003, 2005  LSMS-type national household surveys (PIHS 2001-02, LSMS 2004-05)  Growth in enrolments (absolute and relative)  Changes in school participation rates

7. Methodology  Estimating impact requires choosing a suitable comparison group  Simple before and after or between program and non-program groups are misleading  Combination of techniques  Difference-in-Difference (DD)  DD-in-Difference (DDD)  Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD)

12. School Level Census Data BasicRDD parametric RDD non- parametric DD absolute 12.511.716.8 DDD absolute 5.36.26.7 DD percent 22.510.020.8 DDD percent 11.08.715.0 Impact Estimates (net growth of girl enrolments per school )

16. National household data (PIHS 2001-02, PSLM 2004-05) BasicRDD parametric DD percent 12.29.6 DDD percent 13.111.9 Impact Estimates II (net change in school participation rate)

17. Findings and next steps  Modest but statistically significant impact on enrolments  Evidence from national household survey data indicates stipends helping poor children attend schools  Preliminary evidence from primary survey data points to similar findings on enrolments  In the process of analyzing the linkage between stipends and quality (test scores)