1. Uncertainty in Pesticide Consultations: The Challenge and Solutions Ya-Wei (Jake) Li Endangered Species Policy Advisor Defenders of Wildlife yli@defenders.org

2. How can we address uncertainty in pesticide consultations in a timely manner that provides species with the protections required under the ESA, but also offers adequate transparency, objectivity, and predictability?

3. Role of Upcoming NAS Study “Science by itself is not sufficient input to policy decisions, apart from the objectives and values it serves.” “The selection of particular degrees of risk associated with particular periods to trigger ESA decisions reflects scientific knowledge and societal values.”

4. ESA: Biological Status

5. ESA: Five Threat Factors

6. “Listing analyses conducted by the FWS are primarily based on threats to the species, and not population numbers and distribution (although those are considered).”

7. ESA: Consultations For the jeopardy analysis, “survival is framed in terms of the species’ reproduction, numbers, and distribution in the wild.”

8. Bridging the Gap ESA FIFRA 1. Get more and better data 2. Use existing data, but address uncertainties

9. Lessons from Human Health

11. Statistical methods Uncertainty factors Scenario analysis Data rich. Statistical variability. Data poor. Model uncertainty. Deep uncertainty.

12. Applies to Pesticide Consultations? Create Framework for Uncertainty Identify key uncertainties Develop methods to address each uncertainty Goals Protect species Manage workload Trust, transparency, predictability

13. Ya-Wei (Jake) Li yli@defenders.org 202.772.3219