1. EU Enlargement EU Enlargement

2. FYR

3. Enlargement: from 6 to 27  1973: United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark  1981-86: Greece, Spain, Portugal  1995: Sweden, Austria, Finland  2004: “big bang”– eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe plus Malta and Cyprus  2007: Bulgaria and Romania

4. Copenhagen criteria “Membership requires that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing...” 1) the rule of law, human rights and respect for, and protection of minorities 1) the rule of law, human rights and respect for, and protection of minorities 2) democracy 2) democracy 3) the existence of a functioning market economy 3) the existence of a functioning market economy

5. Why do CEEC countries want EU membership? Geopolitics: security, Russia, global weight Geopolitics: security, Russia, global weight Economics : aid, market access, European capitalism Economics : aid, market access, European capitalism Politics: consolidate democracy Politics: consolidate democracy Why do 15 EU members support enlargement? Geopolitics: stable borders Economics : cheaper labor, consumers, growth Politics: Moral obligation to stitch Europe back together

6. Regional disparities in the enlarged EU

7. COHESION POLICY Goal: reduce disparities among regions in the EU. About 1/3 of EU spending 2000-2006 = 213 billion Euros 2007-2013 = 330 billion Euros 0.4% of total EU GDP Up to 10 % total public spending in new members

8. Corruption ratings from Transparency International, 2008 Denmark (1) Sweden (1) Finland (5) Netherlands (7) Canada (9) Luxembourg (11) Austria (12) Germany (14) Ireland, UK (16) Belgium, USA (18) France (23) Slovenia (26) Estonia (27) Spain (28) Cyprus (31) Portugal (32) Malta (36) Czech Rep (45) Hungary (47) Slovakia, Latvia (52) Italy (55) Greece (57) Lithuania, Poland & Turkey (58) Croatia (62) Romania (70) Bulgaria, Mexico, Macedonia (72) Montenegro, and Serbia (85) Bosnia (92) Corruption

10. Minority rights Not in EU treaties, mainly Council of Europe (Commissioner of Human Rights) Copenhagen criteria Commission annual monitoring reports during accession EU agency for fundamental rights Private associations, e.g. EUmap.org [Soros] Problems: – –Russian minorities in Baltic states – –Roma (esp. Central- and Eastern Europe) – –Muslims (esp. Western Europe)

11. EU wide survey, EU-Midis, May 2009 (www.fra.europa.eu) 23,500 persons from selected immigrant and ethnic minority groups in all 27 Member States of the European Union.

12. Eurobarometer 85 November 2005

13. Beyond enlargement: European Neighborhood policy Mediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, MoroccoMediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco Caucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, GeorgiaCaucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia Budget for 2007-12: 12 billion EurosBudget for 2007-12: 12 billion Euros Next enlargement candidates Turkey, Croatia, MacedoniaTurkey, Croatia, Macedonia Rest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, AlbaniaRest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania

15. EU: top-down approach Skeptical on capacity to create democracy, certainly not by the sword Focus on state building and consolidation Focus on rule of law, good governance  Work with judges, police forces, bureaucrats, political leaders Optimistic about capacity to create democracy, if necessary by the sword Focus on society building and promotion Focus on elections, civil society  Work with civil society groups, election monitoring, parties US: bottom-up approach

16. What works for regime change? Short-term: material incentives targeted at governments: Conditional EU membershipShort-term: material incentives targeted at governments: Conditional EU membership clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure (Commission annual country reports, implementation and periodic monitoring reports)clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure (Commission annual country reports, implementation and periodic monitoring reports) multilateralismmultilateralism bond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest ratesbond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest rates Essential: domestic political competitionEssential: domestic political competition Long-term: socialization + learningLong-term: socialization + learning