1. Wireless Networks and Services 10 Years Down the Road Technology/Business Panel Discussion N. K. Shankaranarayanan AT&T Labs-Research shankar@research.att.com April 7, 2009 IEEE WCNC 2009 Budapest, Hungary

2. Acknowledgment Discussions with: Byoung-Jo “J” Kim Robert Miller

3. Wireless networks and services in 2014 to 2019 Currently planned cycle of standardization (LTE, 802.16m/WiMAX, 802.11) would be in mature deployment phase Wireless networks and services would have migrated to IP-based networks Mobile user experience –Like today’s Ethernet: 10 to 100 Mb/s –Latency improvements may lag bit rate improvements Enables thin clients, games

4. Mobile services Mobile person-to-person communication services –Likely to continue as primary driver for consumer mobile communicatons services –Dominant mode of person-to-person communications will be optimized for mobile Voice/video telephony & messages, e-mail, short video clips Battery and device constraints Shorter messages easier to generate and receive Variety of other applications will thrive once enabled by broadband connectivity (& unlimited pricing) –M-commerce, Sensing & monitoring, Healthcare –QoS provisions (esp. bandwidth-rich applications) depend on willingness to pay Uniquely mobile applications & services will be interesting –Location-aware, context-aware –Mobile games –Participatory experiences

5. Wireless Networks & Services Broadband mobile (e.g. UMTS/HSPA) has been deployed in wide manner in recent years.. Large set of IP-based applications got enabled once user got few hundred kb/s (& unlimited data pricing plans) As we progress from {few Mb/s -> 10 Mb/s -> 100 Mb/s} Ethernet-like connectivity.. –Expect trends that played out in home & office computers Explosion of functionality will be driven by innovation in data (IP-based) applications.. Next 5 to 10 years will witness strong growth in user demands of data applications –Need to maintain broadband experience as we.. –.. accommodate more number of users –.. offer higher peak bit rates.

6. Inflexion point ~ 2008 Smartphones (e.g. iPhone) ushered in new era of mobile applications Inflexion point in 2008 – popularity of broadband mobile data applications Following factors & trends will play key role in next 5 to 10 years –Multipurpose mobile computing+communication device –User interface innovation crossed critical threshold of usability –WiFi / cellular – transparent to applications –Unlimited data plans –Openly available SDK with large target audience –Application development by small developers –Location services, push/notification, security manged by device/OS

7. Mobile Devices Form factor of hand-held devices seem to already show a lot of convergence –Small & easy-to-carry versus display large enough to be usable –On-screen or folding/sliding keyboard/keypad Battery life expected to continue as key constraint –Higher bandwidth connections –Video & screen usage Mobile devices will serve as target platform for innovation and convergence of personal computing/communication applications Wild cards / Innovations –Foldable display –Battery technology – capacity & quick charging

8. Mobile computing trends Location information integrated and managed actively by device and OS – privacy issues Use of network-based computing technology (e.g. cloud computing) to manage constraints of device (e.g. thin clients, suspended states) Security paradigms to manage authentication (m-commerce etc) and separation of personal/business space Variety of specialized applications – v. general purpose programs Easier input –Increased use of voice-input –Natural language processing

9. Wireless network deployment Strong trends pointing to smaller cell sizes –More users (with same spectrum) -> smaller cell sizes –Higher bit rates (with same battery) -> smaller cell sizes –Higher bit rates -> data applications more usable, more popular - > more users Local wireless will need to be integral part of mobile experience –Low-power, low-cost access points are feasible in buildings (thanks to wired broadband) Managing heterogeneous networks and local/wide area will be crucial –Either Active Management or Smart co-existence –Transparent to users and applications Wild cards –Spectrum sharing / re-use

10. Local wireless Critically needed for solving battery life and capacity constraints Likely that both Unlicensed (WiFi) and/or Licensed (femtocell) spectrum approaches will thrive in 5 to 10 years Leverages availability of lower-cost (free?) wired broadband Same advanced radio techniques will get applied to both Deployment model –WiFi: unlicensed spectrum, general purpose use –Femtocells: optimized for mobile devices, controlled by mobile operators Battery life –WiFi: Not part of original design, being added now –Femtocells: Sleep mode behavior optimized for cellular Availability to wide-area (guest) user –Likely to be addressed better by femtocells –WiFi factoid: Proliferation of APs, but decrease in free hotspots Interference and co-existence –Decentralized (auto-configuration) approaches