1. Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Thursday 7 th October 2010 Leeds Low Emission Vehicle Exhibition and Conference VEHICLE EMISSION MONITORING AND MODELLING Dr James Tate Lecturer (50% Research) j.e.tate@its.leeds.ac.uk

2. Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Thursday 7 th October 2010 Leeds Low Emission Vehicle Exhibition and Conference BETTER UNDERSTANDING VEHICLE EMISSIONS ON THE ROAD: - Why local air pollution is still a concern - The benefits of hybrid cars Dr James Tate Lecturer (50% Research) j.e.tate@its.leeds.ac.uk

3. CONTENTS [1] ASSESSING VEHICLE EMISSIONS: A new approach a.The on road measurement & categorisation of vehicles & emissions b.Vehicle emission standards & the traditional lab. testing approach [2] RESULTS: Trends in UK passenger car on road emissions a.The on road fleet b.Emission characteristics c.Implications for Low Emission Strategies [3] OUTLOOK a. A rapidly changing vehicle fleet b. Future extensions

4. Halifax, Calderdale MBC, October 2009 [1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS: A remote sensing approach

5. Sowerby Bridge, Calderdale MBC, July 2010 [1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS: A remote sensing approach

6. Sowerby Bridge, Calderdale MBC, Also July 2010…. [1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS: A remote sensing approach

7. Emission measurements: CO/CO 2, NO/CO 2, HC/CO 2 & a Particle measure from peak exhaust plume conc. Vehicle Fleet: Classification from number plate (ANPR) →Detailed registration information (DVLA) →Collaboration with www.smmt.co.uk [1a] ON ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS: A remote sensing approach

8. Fig. Chassis dynamometer and exhaust analysing equipment Technical University of Graz (Austria): Light-duty Heavy-duty [1b] VEHICLE EMISSIONS Laboratory testing Engine & Chassis dynos.

9. Fig. Speed profile used for type approval purposes (New EU Drive-Cycle) [1b] VEHICLE EMISSIONS: Vehicle operation in the laboratory Fig. Real-world driving: The Common ARTEMIS Drive Cycle (Andre, 2004).

10. Latest EU directive for Euro 5 and 6 - 2007/715/EC [1b] VEHICLE EMISSION STANDARDS Passenger cars NO X PM

11. Ligterink et al, 2009, On-road NOx emissions of Euro-V trucks. TNO report, 2 nd December 2009 [1b] ON ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS: NO X Emissions from Euro 5 Commercial Vehicles

12. Spring 2010 10 days monitoring (8am – 6pm) Data collection Enviro Tech plc. [2a] RESULTS Shropshire Council Project >18 000 records = paired emission + vehicle info. e.g. vehicle & euro category, weight, size, engine capacity, manufacturer & model, CO 2 rating, etc.

13. [2a] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet NOTE: The recommended UK fuel split is Petrol (70%) / Diesel (30%) e.g. NAEI & EFT ver 4.2

14. [2a] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet

15. [2a] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet CO 2 (grams/km): From type approval drive-cycle (NEDC)

16. [2a] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet

17. [2b] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet

18. [2a] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet

19. Nitrogen dioxide emitted directly from vehicle exhausts is termed primary NO 2 (p-NO 2 ) The proportion of NO X emitted directly as NO 2 is the primary NO 2 fraction (f-NO 2 ) f-NO 2 is usually expressed as a percentage (p-NO 2 / NO X ) f-NO 2 is rising as a result of:  Modern diesel exhaust after-treatment systems (particulate traps and diesel oxidation catalysts) lead to substantial increases in f-NO 2  The ‘dieselisation’ of vehicle fleets across the EU PETROL passenger cars: f-NO 2 ~ 3% (All Euro categories) DIESEL passenger cars f-NO 2 ~ ►Euro 2 and earlier11% ►Euro 330% ►Euro 455% ►Euro 5 55% ►Euro 6 55% TERMINOLOGY Oxides of Nitrogen Grice et al, 2009. Recent trends and projections of primary NO 2 emissions in Europe. Atmospheric Env. 43, pp. 2154 - 2167. & HBEFA, 2010. Swiss/ German HandBook of Emission Factors (HBEFA)

20. [2b] RESULTS Observed passenger car fleet

21. [2b] SUMMARY RESULTS p-NO 2 Trends ASSUMPTIONS: The 2010 passenger car fleet petrol/ diesel split and average NO 2 figures, projected to new vehicles 2011- The number of new vehicles, assumed to be equivalent to 2009 Scrappage of older vehicles not currently considered Note: Euro 6 Sept 2014-

22. Policies to encourage the replacement of older passenger cars with “potentially more environmentally friendly models” (www.berr.gov.uk) may exacerbate the NO 2 problem E.g. The UK Car Scrappage Scheme Boost to the car industry Voluntary discount scheme under which motor dealers gave motorists £2,000 or more towards a new vehicle if they traded in a car or van over 10 years old for scrap between the 21st October 2009 and the 28th of February Number of vehicles scrapped = 400 000 The scheme has supported replacing older passenger cars (typically petrol engines) with modern diesel passenger cars that emit more p-NO 2 For all other legislated emissions, the scheme is considered to have been beneficial [2c] IMPLICATIONS Low Emission Strategies

23. [2c] IMPLICATIONS E.g. The UK Car Scrappage Scheme

24. The UK and EU vehicle fleets are in a period of transition: – Increasing fleet share of DIESEL passenger cars – DIESEL passenger cars emit more NO 2 directly – Little expected reduction in the NO 2 emissions from Euro 6 DIESELS (2014-) √ Initial stages of growth for HYBRID and ELECTRIC vehicles √ Unlike diesels vehicles, HYBRID and ELECTRIC vehicles potentially benefit the both the GLOBAL and LOCAL environment Vehicle emission models and management policies need to better consider the composition of the on road vehicle fleet NO 2 air pollution standards are likely to continue to be exceeded 2015- Emission standards and Legislation should be extended to: ► Better represent “real-world” driving conditions ► Include standards for NO 2 [3a] OUTLOOK Summary

25. Regional Group initiative: West Yorkshire Transport Emissions Group DEFRA funding 2010 - 2011 Surveys completed in Calderdale MBC July 2010 Surveys planned in Bradford, Kirklees, Leeds and York: 2010 – 2011 >25 000 valid records from each Local Authority Rich resource to better understand vehicle emissions & inform Low Emission Strategies Future Research Priorities: Inform the development and calibration of emission models e.g. study the % of failed catalysts in vehicle type sub-categories With a larger dataset, study the important Heavy-duty vehicle sub-categories [3b] OUTLOOK Research extensions