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Published byJanel Kelley Modified over 9 years ago
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Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corporation
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- Petroleum Industry structure: - 5 sectors of operations (Upstream, downstream, marine, pipeline, and service/supply) - Extremely high barriers to entry allowing for sustainable profits in the long run - Supply of oil is controlled by a cartel regime (OPEC) - Economic market form is close to Oligopoly - Few large sellers dominate industry - High barriers to entry, competitors cannot enter to reduce profits of participating firms - Standardized product - Oil and Gas industry is described well by Cournot-Nash Models of competition ( Two equally positioned firms competing on quantity, not price) - Major Players (Integrated): - Exxon, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum
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Operates as an Integrated Oil Company: -Global exploration, extraction, refinement, transportation and marketing of petrol and chemical Products Market Statistics: -Market Cap (intraday) 5 :149.60B -Market Value Debt: 10.54 B -Enterprise Value (9-Mar-10) 3 :151.60B -Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):14.22 -Price/Sales (ttm):0.94 -Price/Book (mrq):1.63
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WACC = [(D/V)*(YTM*(1-T))]+[(E/V)*(rf + β(Erm - rf)] 0.079299 Cost of Debt = Weighted Avg. YTM (1-Marginal Tax Rate) 0.045924 Equity = rf + β(Erm - rf) 0.081512 Pre. Stock = Div/Price (Chevron does not have P.S.) DCF Analysis Results: 2014 FCF $140,499.52 Terminal Value $91,995 PV $2,076,684.74 Millions Per Share Price Approx $ 685 Current Share Price ($74.60) Analysts Recommendations Buys: 6 Buy/Hold: 8 Hold: 5 Hold/Sells: 0 Sells: 0
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Operates as an Integrated Oil Company: -Global exploration, extraction, refinement, transportation and marketing of petrol and chemical Products Market Statistics: -Market Cap (intraday) 5 :316.23 B -Market Value Debt: 10.54 B -Enterprise Value (9-Mar-10) 3 :312.61B -Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):16.84 -Price/Sales (ttm):1.13 -Price/Book (mrq):2.84
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WACC = [(D/V)*(YTM*(1-T))]+[(E/V)*(rf + β(Erm - rf)] 0.0615 Cost of Debt = Weighted Avg. YTM (1-Marginal Tax Rate) 0.0330 Equity = rf + β(Erm - rf) 0.0900 Pre. Stock = Div/Price (Exxon Mobil does not have P.S.) DCF Analysis Results: 2014 FCF $130,273 Terminal Value $94,249 PV $3,997,414 Millions Per Share Price Approx $ 845 Current Share Price ($67.00) Analysts Recommendations Buys: 5 Buy/Hold: 3 Hold: 10 Weak Hold: 1 Sells: 0
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S&P: Fundamental outlook for the Integrated Oil & Gas sub- industry for the next 12 months is positive, on expectations of improved global oil consumption amid an economic recovery. S&P projects that S&P 500 Energy sector operating EPS will drop about 67% in 2009, but rebound about 89% in 2010. Financial Data Change in 2009 Drop In Net Income Exxon Mobil Net Income $19,280 for 2009 vs. $45,219 for 2008 (57% drop) Chevron Net Income $10,483 for 2009 vs. $23,931 for 2008 (56% drop)
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Buy Exxon Mobil current price $67 High price over past three years is $93 (April 2008) and it should head back to that level within the next 18 months with the economic recovery or 63.5% annual return Buy Chevron current price $74.33 High price over the past three years $99 (June 2008) and it should head back to that level within the next 18 months or 53.7% annual return
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