Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Bkahn - MPR2001 1 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW Brian Kahn March 2001 Brian Kahn March 2001.

Published byOwen Jackson Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Bkahn - MPR2001 1 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW Brian Kahn March 2001 Brian Kahn March 2001."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bkahn - MPR2001 1 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW Brian Kahn March 2001 Brian Kahn March 2001

2 Bkahn - MPR2001 2 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW u Introduction u Recent developments in inflation  the evolution of indicators of inflation  factors affecting inflation u Monetary Policy u The outlook for inflation u Assessment and conclusion

3 Bkahn - MPR2001 3 INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION u Inflation targeting u Inflation targeting: The international experience.

4 Bkahn - MPR2001 4 Inflation targets & realised inflation rates

5 Bkahn - MPR2001 5 Inflation targets & realised inflation rates (continued)

6 Bkahn - MPR2001 6 Recent developments in inflation u Evolution of inflation indicators

7 Bkahn - MPR2001 7 Consumer price inflation CPIX & CPI

8 Bkahn - MPR2001 8 Contributions to CPIX inflation

9 Bkahn - MPR2001 9 Production price inflation

10 Bkahn - MPR2001 10 The price of Brent crude oil

11 Bkahn - MPR2001 11 Brent crude & SA petrol prices

12 Bkahn - MPR2001 12 CPIX consumer price inflation & the oil price

13 Bkahn - MPR2001 13 Production price inflation

14 Bkahn - MPR2001 14 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u External environment

15 Bkahn - MPR2001 15 Real GDPInflation rates 19992000 (estimate) World3.44.7 5.4 4.6 Advanced economies 3.24.2 1.4 2.3 USA4.25.2 2.2 3.2 Japan0.21.4-0.3-0.2 Euro area 2.43.5 1.2 2.1 Developing countries3.85.6 6.6 6.2 Africa2.23.411.812.7 Asia 5.96.7 2.4 2.4 Western Hemisphere 0.34.3 9.3 8.9 Countries in transition 2.44.943.818.3 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – October 2000 Real GDPInflation rates 19992000 (estimate) World3.44.7 5.4 4.6 Advanced economies 3.24.2 1.4 2.3 USA4.25.2 2.2 3.2 Japan0.21.4-0.3-0.2 Euro area 2.43.5 1.2 2.1 Developing countries3.85.6 6.6 6.2 Africa2.23.411.812.7 Asia 5.96.7 2.4 2.4 Western Hemisphere 0.34.3 9.3 8.9 Countries in transition 2.44.943.818.3 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – October 2000 Annual percentage change in real GDP and inflation rates

16 Bkahn - MPR2001 16 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Exchange rate developments

17 Bkahn - MPR2001 17 US dollar per rand, euro, Australian New Zealand dollar

18 Bkahn - MPR2001 18 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Labour markets

19 Bkahn - MPR2001 19 Remuneration per worker, labour productivity & labour costs

20 Bkahn - MPR2001 20 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Demand and output

21 Bkahn - MPR2001 21 Real gross domestic product

22 Bkahn - MPR2001 22 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Fiscal policy

23 Bkahn - MPR2001 23 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Monetary conditions

24 Bkahn - MPR2001 24 FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Administered prices

25 Bkahn - MPR2001 25 Component of consumer price index Administered prices11,1 Public transport 4,0 Petrol and diesel28,4 Communication services 6,2 Electricity 6,0 Paraffin40,3 Licences 8,3 Water 9,1 Education14,8 Medical services 7,2 Medical care goods 9,1 Administered prices excluding petrol and diesel 8,0 Overall consumer prices 7,0 Overall consumer prices excluding administered prices 5,4

26 Bkahn - MPR2001 26 MONETARY POLICY

27 Bkahn - MPR2001 27 The repo and short-term interest rates

28 Bkahn - MPR2001 28 OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION u International context  World growth expected to moderate

29 Bkahn - MPR2001 29 IMF Projections Real GDPInflation Oct 2000 Feb 2001 Oct 2000 (Revised) World 4,23,43,8 Advanced economies 3,22,1 USA 3,21,72,6 USA 3,21,72,6 Japan 1,80,5 Japan 1,80,5 Euro area 3,41,7 Euro area 3,41,7 Developing countries 5,75,2 Africa 4,48,6 Africa 4,48,6 Asia 6,63,3 Asia 6,63,3 Western Hemisphere 4,57,0 Western Hemisphere 4,57,0 Countries in transition 4,1 12,5 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2000)

30 Bkahn - MPR2001 30 OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION u International context  World growth expected to moderate  World interest rates expected to fall  Oil prices expected to stabilise  No world inflation pressures  Points to relatively begin international environment.

31 Bkahn - MPR2001 31 OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION u Domestic outlook  Expect growth to be above that of 2000  Government fiscal policy only mildly expansionary  Private sector consumption expenditure expected to remain steady  Private sector investment expected to rise  Capacity utilisation rates not a cause for concern  No immediate pressure on labour cost increases  Current account is manageable, large deficit not expected  Capital flows uncertain, but flows from Anglo/de Beers and Telkom expected  Exchange rate uncertain, unless hit by some contagion effects of world economy slowdown. Threats to inflation: Stronger than expected international downturn accompanied by sharp rise in domestic expenditure.

32 Bkahn - MPR2001 32 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

33 Bkahn - MPR2001 33 Headline CPI inflation CPIX inflation 200120022003200120022003 Finance6,05,14,96,15,55,1 Business6,36,56,67,98,08,0 Labour6,56,76,37,97,77,7 Average6,36,15,97,37,17,0 Households7,3----- Grand average6,5----- Source: Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch BER survey of inflation expectations 1st quarter 2001)

34 Bkahn - MPR2001 34 Yield on government bonds

35 Bkahn - MPR2001 35 RESERVE BANK INFLATION FORECAST

36 Bkahn - MPR2001 36 CPIX forecast

37 Bkahn - MPR2001 37 Assessment and conclusion

Download ppt "Bkahn - MPR2001 1 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW Brian Kahn March 2001 Brian Kahn March 2001."

Similar presentations

Research Department 1 Global Economic Crisis and the Israeli Economy Herzliya conference Dr. Karnit Flug Research Director, Bank of Israel February 2009.

Research Department 1 Global Economic Crisis and the Israeli Economy Herzliya conference Dr. Karnit Flug Research Director, Bank of Israel February 2009.
Irelands Economic outlook David Duffy. The Outlook Dependent on world trade growth If forecast recovery materialises then Irish growth will improve in.

Irelands Economic outlook David Duffy. The Outlook Dependent on world trade growth If forecast recovery materialises then Irish growth will improve in.
1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.
France Economic Outlook by Alain Henriot Delegate Director, Coe-Rexecode Kiel - 16th March 2010.

France Economic Outlook by Alain Henriot Delegate Director, Coe-Rexecode Kiel - 16th March 2010.
Russian Economic Report No. 23 Zeljko Bogetic Lead Economist and Coordinator for Economic Policy for Russia, The World Bank November 2, 2010 Moscow Growth.

Russian Economic Report No. 23 Zeljko Bogetic Lead Economist and Coordinator for Economic Policy for Russia, The World Bank November 2, 2010 Moscow Growth.
Weak international public finances and Swedish monetary policy Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm.

Weak international public finances and Swedish monetary policy Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm.
ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION CONTENT: 1.GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GPD) 2.UNEMPLOYMENT 3.INFLATION 4.INCOME PER CAPITA 5.BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS.

ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION CONTENT: 1.GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GPD) 2.UNEMPLOYMENT 3.INFLATION 4.INCOME PER CAPITA 5.BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS.
Monetary Policy Update April 2009. Lower repo rate necessary to subdue the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of two.

Monetary Policy Update April Lower repo rate necessary to subdue the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of two.
Global outlook: Two-speed recovery in motion Real GDP Growth (percent change from a year earlier) 20000204 World Emerging economies Advanced economies.

Global outlook: Two-speed recovery in motion Real GDP Growth (percent change from a year earlier) World Emerging economies Advanced economies.
Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)
Standing Committee on Finance Sector Analysis 02 July 2014 Esther Mohube 1.

Standing Committee on Finance Sector Analysis 02 July 2014 Esther Mohube 1.
Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 18 September 2012.

Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 18 September 2012.
Perspectives on key economic issues April 2013 Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Finance by the South African Reserve Bank.

Perspectives on key economic issues April 2013 Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Finance by the South African Reserve Bank.
Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Oil & Gas Exporters Oil & Gas Importers.

Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Oil & Gas Exporters Oil & Gas Importers.
Introduction to Macroeconomics

Introduction to Macroeconomics
PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006.

PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006.
Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 23 February 2012.

Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 23 February 2012.
Presentation to the Parliament Committee on Finance The South African economy: recent developments and monetary policy Ben Smit BUREAU FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH.

Presentation to the Parliament Committee on Finance The South African economy: recent developments and monetary policy Ben Smit BUREAU FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH.
The Macroeconomic Outlook for the Euro Area Ray Barrell (NIESR) March 2005.

The Macroeconomic Outlook for the Euro Area Ray Barrell (NIESR) March 2005.
Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 13, 2012.

Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 13, 2012.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google