1. Probability
What is probability?

2. Thumbtack Experiment
Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface
How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?

3. Thumbtack Experiment Lets try the experiment
Toss 5 thumbtacks up and let them land.
Write down your individual data: how many landed with the point straight up?
Group data

4. Thumbtack Experiment
Based on our experiment…What is the probability that a randomly chosen thumbtack that is tossed up will land with the point side straight up?
Experimental vs. Theoretical
Is there a way to find the theoretical probability for this experiment?

5. Dice Experiment Work with your elbow partner
One person rolls 2 dice
One person tallies the sum of the 2 dice
Record your data on the poster
Histogram

6. Dice Experiment
Based on our experiment…What is the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is 2? 5? 7?
11?

7. Dice Experiment Experimental vs. Theoretical
Is there a way to find the theoretical probabilities for this experiment?
Equally Likely Outcomes Model
Sample Space of equally likely outcomes

8. Dice Experiment

9. Dice Experiment Compute (theoretical) probabilities
Compare these results to our experimental probabilities

10. M&M Experiment Dump out your bag of M&Ms
Consider the experiment: an M&M is randomly selected from your pile of M&Ms
What is the probability of selecting each of the available colors?

11. M&M Experiment Compare your results with your table group members
Now compute the probability of selecting each of the available colors for your table group
Record your group data on the poster

12. M&M Experiment
The theoretical probabilities of obtaining each color from a bag of M&Ms are depicted in the following table:
Color
Probability of that color
Yellow
0.14
Red
0.13
Orange
0.20
Brown
Green
0.16
Blue
What is the probability of blue?

13. M&M Experiment
Make a prediction: How many of each color would be likely to be found in a bag of 50? 100? 250? 500? 1000?