1. 1 Future Changes in Fuel Mix of Electricity Generation in Hong Kong and Implications By Larry Chuen-ho Chow Professor, Department of Geography Director, Hong Kong Energy Studies Centre Hong Kong Baptist University

2. 2 1. Hong Kong 2009 population 7.004 million per capita GDP U.S. $29,401 -- Hong Kong does not produce any energy -- 2009 Total Primary Energy Requirements (PER): 577,073 TJ (19.690 million tce) Coal51.9% Oil & Natural Gas43.2% Nuclear Power4.9%

3. 3 2. Dominant Role of Electricity in HK Energy Economy -- 2009 amount of coal, natural gas and oil products used for power generation: 389,030 Tj -- Total amount of coal, natural gas and oil products consumed in HK: 548,780 Tj Share of power generation: 70.9% Fuel Mix of Final Energy Requirements (%) CoalOil ProductsElectricityTowngas ---42.448.78.9

4. 4 3. Maximum installed capacity12,624 MW Peak demand10,153 MW Local generation139,420 Tj Imports41,725 Tj Exports13,432 Tj Net Imports28,293 Tj Local consumption149,366 Tj Net imports as share of local consumption20.3% Sectoral Consumption of Electricity (%) DomesticCommercialIndustrial 26.1%66.4%7.5%

5. 5 4. Six Major Types of GHG 1. CO 2 most important 2. CH 4 3. NO X 4.-6. Synthetic Gases like HFC

6. 6 5.GHG Emissions by Sector, 2008

7. 7 6. Reduction in GHG Emissions, 2005-2020

8. 8 7. Fuel Mix for Power Generation (%) 20092020 Coal54<10 Natural Gas2340 Nuclear2350 Renewable Energy--3-4

9. 9 8. Two power companies in Hong Kong CLP Hong Kong Electric Governed by a scheme of control for 10 years up to 2018 -- permitted return based on 9.99% of net fixed assets -- 11.0% for investments in renewable energy

10. 10 9. Current Prices of Electricity (cents/kwh) NuclearCoal-firedGas-fired 5040-6070-90

11. 11 10. Factors Affecting Future Electricity Tariff A. Future Price of Different Fuels -- Nuclear expected to be cheaper than gas-fired power -- Price of natural gas expected to rise and be volatile B. Investments in new power plants and other infrastructures -- New combined cycle plants -- Transmission facilities -- LNG terminal in Guangdong (and nuclear power plant ?)

12. 12 11. Impacts on Energy Security A. Security of nuclear power supply i) Inability to store electricity ii) Dedicated transmission line to Hong Kong B. How much generation capacity to be maintained in Hong Kong C. Natural gas supply: No problem

13. 13 12. Use of Nuclear Power in World 2010 (Jan) 436 reactors in 30 states -- Total installed capacity: 372 000MW -- Provided 15% of world electricity 3/4 electricity nuclear: France 1/2 electricity nuclear: Belgium, Sweden 1/3 electricity nuclear: Finland, Germany, S. Korea, Switzerland 1/4 electricity nuclear: Japan 1/5 electricity nuclear: Russia, Spain, USA

14. 14 12. Use of Nuclear Power in World (cont’) 53 reactors under construction ≈14% present installed capacity 141 reactors in planning stage ≈ 41% present installed capacity

15. 15 13. Use of Nuclear Power in HK Daya Bay Plant 2 reactors plus Conghua pumped storage plant -- total capacity 1968 MW -- started in 1994 -- produced 14 billion kwh per year, 70% supplied to HK

16. 16 14. Nuclear: No Air Pollution & GHG Use of nuclear from Daya Bay reduced emission of i) 7.5 million tons of CO 2 ii) tens of thousand tons of SO x & NO x iii) hundreds of tons of particulates

17. 17 YearTotal GHG emissions (kilotonnes CO2-e) Per capita emissions (tonnes CO2-e) Carbon Intensity (kg CO2-e per HKD GDP) 199035 3006.20.044 199138 8006.70.046 199243 0007.40.048 199343 4007.40.046 199435 9005.90.036 199536 9006.00.036 199635 6005.50.033 199734 1005.30.030 199835 5005.40.033 199933 3005.00.031 200034 6005.20.029 200134 7005.20.029 200236 2005.40.030 200339 6005.90.032 200439 8005.90.030 200542 0006.20.029 200642 3006.20.027 200743 3006.30.026 200842 0006.00.025 15.Past GHG Emissions and Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008

18. 18 16. Resurgence in Use of Nuclear Since 1990s Concern about Global Warming USA: New Plants began to be ordered since Three- Mile-Island Accident U.K.: Building new plants Germany: Decided to extend life of existing ones

19. 19 17. Safety of Nuclear Power Apart from Windscale, Three-mile-Island & Chernobyl, no serious accidents Exceptionally stringent operational procedures & well trained staff Each important control has a back-up system Strong concrete structure Pressure vessel in stainless steel

20. 20 18. Costs of Nuclear Power Affected by many factors i) safety coefficient needed ii) interest costs iii) insurance costs iv) waste disposal costs v) decommissioning costs vi) price of uranium

21. 21 END