1. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 1 Long-Baseline Experiments in North America Maury Goodman ANL NOW 2008 September 2008

2. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 2 Preface: “Long-Baseline” Definition  Dictionary definition of long - “having considerable linear extent in space”  Longer than before / Off the site of the accelerator  Beam -- L >> length of beam pipeYES Which implies the far detector sees a point source of neutrinos  Physics – L >>  E/(2.54  m 32 2 ) ~ 1500km NO

3. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 3 Preface: [Factors in North America/US] National Planning in the US is done by a panel called HEPAP (High Energy Physics Advisory Panel) Long-Term Planning is done every few years by subpanels A recent innovation is to have a panel called P5 (Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel) maintain a roadmap. The highest priority project in a 2001 report was the ILC (Bagger-Barish Panel) The ILC Central Design Group Reference Design Report reported an ILC cost in August 2007. The advertised cost was $6.6B. The estimated US project cost is $21.9B. [These are the same number!] Too much  ->-> Therefore new study

4. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 4 P5 report May 29 08 report aka Baltay panel

5. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 5 Outline MINOSa few results MINOS+ speculation & opinions NO A LB DUSEL –Water –Liquid Argon Thanks to M. Sanchez, H. Gallagher, G. Feldman, M. Diwan, N. Saoulidou, M. Messier, M. Bishai, G. Rameika, R. Svoboda, Y.K. Kim, K. Lesko, B. Fleming, L. Pinella,

6. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 6 Plus more baselines… To have some more facts in this talk, I’ll mention several things having to do with baseball*.  Fully realizing a large fraction of my audience doesn’t care in the least about baseball

7. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 7 MINOS 484 planes of 4cm strips SEE DETAILS FROM JUSTIN EVANS THIS AFTERNOON

8. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 8 NuMI Beam Performance 8 Total Protons (E20) 12 May 2008

9. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 9 9 MINOS -  m 2 32 Energy Spectrum Best Fit: |  m 2 | = 2.43x10 -3 eV 2 sin 2 (2  ) =1.00 Events / GeV |  m 2 | =(2.43±0.13) x 10 -3 eV 2 (68% C.L.)

10. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 10 MINOS Other Analyses NC Atmospheric s Alternative fits to oscillations Time of flight Search for Lorentz Violation Cosmic     Cosmic shadows, seasonal variations,…   e for  13  Antineutinos for  m 2 32

11. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 11 Cosmic Rays Charge Ratio Previously     flat First rise in Charge Ratio     Relevant variable is not E  by E  cos  Can be used to measure K + /K - &  + /  - Related to TeV associated production Relevant for Neutrino Telescope backgrounds (  )

12. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 12 e Sensitivity for  13  At CHOOZ limit expect 12 ν e signal events and 42 background events with 3.25x10 20 protons.  Use sidebands to study predicted far detector backgrounds.

13. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 13 MINOS plans ÞRunning on FNAL schedule through 2010  ~10e20 pot ÞWe want to continue running s beyond 2010 ÞWe want to run s ÞA “scenarios” group is devising a plan/proposal ÞRunning beyond 2010 seems obvious, but you never know.

14. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 14 Baseball  They play almost every day (162-182/year)  Many fans appreciate statistics  You can understand about 70% of the game in 30 minutes  Much that remains is fairly subtle  Huge influence - metaphors on English language (MVP, double play, off base, hit it out of the park, pinch hitter, foul ball, all-star, big league, rain check, …)  Most common questions when I take a European to a baseball game (~40,000) –Why are there no policeman? –What is light beer?

15. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 15 NO A-Where? The Ash River site is the furthest available site from Fermilab along the NuMI beamline. This maximizes NO A’s sensitivity to the mass ordering. Off-axis

16. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 16 NO A design plastic filled with scintillator An admirer 32-cell extrusions. The planes alternate horizontal and vertical.

17. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 17 NO A A significant Issue It takes a long time to build & fill It is desirable to take data before it is complete  Gluing & Structural Engineering challenges “The problem with plastic is that it is plastic”

18. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 18 Signal & Background x-z y-z

19. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 19 NO A – nonzero  13 ?

20. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 20 NO A – mass hierarchy ?

21. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 21 NO A – CP ?

22. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 22 NO A oscillations NO A was approved at Fermilab and construction funds were included in the DOE 07-08 proposed budget ($12M first year of $260M) Funds also in Congressional budgets, but retroactively zero’d in a December 07 compromise P5 report recommended NO A, but not in all funding scenarios. A supplemental funding bill in July 08 included $9.2 M for NO A It recently passed its (second) CD2 review – not yet signed. Hardware & Civil projects that had been delayed are gearing back up.

23. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 23 Chicago Cubs Haven’t won “World Series” since 1908 16  30 teams Cubs 4 wins -0 losses on days that Italy has won the world cup 2008- This is the year

24. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 24 Eamus Catulii Anno Catulli 00 62 99

25. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 25 Project X

26. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 26 Protons at Fermilab Now ANU/NO A Project X SNuMI

27. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 27 LHC including Upgrades, Particle Astrophysics (including Dark Matter and Dark Energy) ILC R&D, EDR, Engineering, Decision, Industrialization, Construction, Running Proj. X R&D ILC cavities & Cryomodules, Overall Design SNuMI small  13 NOvA (0.7 MW) (1.2 MW) large  13 +2 yrs baseline +5 yrs ILC tiny  13 Precision Phase I Precision Phase II Sketch of Integrated Plan (Sept. 18, 2007) [Y.K. Kim] Muon collider R&D for future energy frontier colliders DUSEL + Factory 4D  cooling + … works 6D  cooling + … works extremely tiny  13 Project X A Large Detector at DUSEL for Neutrinos and Proton Decay

28. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 28 P5 DUSEL Project X ANU

29. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 29

30. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 30 DUSEL

31. Long-Baseline

32. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 32 3 100kt detectors?

33. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 33 LB-DUSEL A significant Issue It will take a long time to build & fill It will be desirable to take data before it is complete  One of the arguments for Modular H 2 O

34. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 34

35. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 35 Water or Liquid Argon?

36. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 36

37. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 37 On-Axis or Off-Axis? On-AxisMore flux Off-AxisLess Background Design a Flexible Beam?

38. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 38

39. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 39 One (unofficial) notion of a LB-DUSEL schedule

40. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 40 DUSEL long-baseline is a vision  The vision requires: (all cost figures MCG rumor quality) –DUSEL ($500M+) –A new beamline at Fermilab ($250M) –Project X ($1B) –A new huge detector ($500M-1B) None of these currently exist or are “approved”  It is not clear that this fits the funding assumptions of P5, or that it is a community consensus.

41. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 41 Other ideas  5 kt Ar at Soudan  Use Brookhaven’s AGS  Detector at 2 nd maximum in NuMI beam ◙Neutrino Factory/Muon Collider

42. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 42 NOW 2020 Intercontinental Long-Baseline ETC… JPARC-INO CERN-INO FNAL-INO

43. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 43 Advertisement(s) Free monthly neutrino rumor newsletter -- ~100 lines, send “subscribe” to maury.goodman@anl.gov or see http://www.hep.anl.gov/ndk/longbnews/ http://www.hep.anl.gov/ndk/longbnews/ Join ~1600 subscribers. Neutrino Oscillation Industry Web Page http://www.neutrinooscillation.org/

44. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 44 Conclusions MINOS is taking data –Results at 4e20,  m 2 32 –Expected ~ 10e20,  13 NO A is coming LB-DUSEL may be next With regard to planning, (in my humble opinion) we are overdue for an effective international context Neutrino fans are in for exciting times Chicago Cubs fans are looking forward to the 2008 baseball World Series

45. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 45 Backup

46. Maury Goodman, ANL NOW 2008 September 2008 46