1. A Brief Explanation of the Comprehensive Emergency Management System and its “Stakeholder” relationship to Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research September 2008

2. Disclaimer The questions, the answers, and the diagrams presented here have been developed by the National Hurricane Program in an effort to understand how best to “programmatically expand” the program within FEMA to support our partners in hurricane emergency management. NOT This presentation does NOT represent official FEMA policy, and is for discussion purposes only. Comments and suggestions for improving the concepts contained here are welcomed and encouraged.

3. Purpose What is the Purpose of Emergency Management? Manage Emergencies

4. With What are Emergencies Managed With? Capability Emergency Management Capability

5. capability “(T)he governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295) “Emergency Management” PKEMRA Definition:

6. What is Capability? Emergency Management Capability?

7. capability “The term ‘capability’ means the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks under specific conditions and to specific performance standards. A capability may be achieved with any combination of properly planned, organized, equipped, trained, and exercised personnel that achieves the intended outcome.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295) Capability “Capability” PKEMRA Definition:

8. Operational Capacity Risk Expectations Emergency Management Capability is the Operational Capacity (“the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks”) to manage the consequences or Risk from a hazard or threat (“under specific conditions”) to prevailing Expectations or performance standards (“to specific performance standards.”) Capability A Simpler Definition of “ Capability ”:

9. Assess How Do We Assess “Emergency Management Capability?” Capability Formula Using the Capability Formula

10. The “Capability Formula” EMC = OC – (R+X) Emergency Management Capability equals Operational Capacity minus the sum of Risk plus Expectations

11. Definition of Terms: Operational Capacity = (Resources + Preparation)Operational Capacity = (Resources + Preparation) Risk = (Hazard x Vulnerability X Consequences)Risk = (Hazard x Vulnerability X Consequences) Expectations = Formal (i.e. legislative or executive directed) + Informal (i.e. academic or media- driven)Expectations = Formal (i.e. legislative or executive directed) + Informal (i.e. academic or media- driven)

12. Improve How Do You Improve “Emergency Management Capability?” ControlVariables Control the Variables of the Formula: 1.IncreaseOperational Capacity 1.Increase Operational Capacity 2.Decrease Risk 3.ManageExpectations 3.Manage Expectations

13. How Do We: Increase Operational Capacity? Decrease Risk? Manage Expectations ? Systematically, through the “Comprehensive Emergency Management System”

14. comprehensive emergency management system “Reduce the loss of life and property and protect the Nation from all hazards, including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man- made disasters, by leading and supporting the Nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery, and mitigation.” -- Both PKEMRA and The FEMA Strategic Plan (February 2008) The FEMA Mission: Lead and Support the “Comprehensive Emergency Management System”

15. PRE-Event The “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System” -- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1]) POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)* Decrease Risk (R)* MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY “Readiness” DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operations” EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT Strategy Development & Process Planning

16. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)* Decrease Risk (R)* SupplementOperational Capacity Supplement Operational Capacity via Response & Recovery Operations, such as Mutual Aid, State Declaration, EMAC, and federal declaration (Stafford Act) through full National Response Framework utilization. IncreaseOperational Effectiveness Increase Operational Effectiveness via traditional Hurricane "Preparedness Cycle” Activities such as: Analyzing, Assessing, Planning, Training, Staffing, Equipping, etc. BUILD CAPABILITY “Hurricane Readiness” HURRICANE or EXERCISE PROTECT RESPOND Permanently Reduce Risk Permanently Reduce Risk from future Hurricanes via traditional Mitigation measures such as: Land Use and Building Regulation, Structural Retrofit, permanent risk reduction projects, etc. MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVER Temporarily Reduce Risk Temporarily Reduce Risk in response to a present Hurricane threat via “Protective Actions” – Population Protection (i.e. evacuation, sheltering, SAR, etc.) as well as temporary risk reduction measures (shutters, sandbags, levee fortification, etc.) DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Hurricane Response” Comprehensive Hurricane Emergency Management Strategy (CHEMS) & Process Planning

17. S E S EE S - TIME + - CAPABILITY + S E = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT

18. S E S E Katrina S - TIME + CAPABILITY + S E = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT - = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING

19. S E S E Katrina S - TIME + CAPABILITY + S E = EXERCISE OR EVENT PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT NEW FEMA/ PKEMRA = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING -

20. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT Strategy Development & Process Planning INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY

21. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

22. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

23. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

24. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

25. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive/Legislative, Media, Academic, Government & Public INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

26. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive/Legislative, Media, Academic, Government & Public GUIDANCE: Oversight, Policy, Law & Doctrine INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

27. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive/Legislative, Media, Academic, Government & Public GUIDANCE: Oversight, Policy, Law & Doctrine INFORMATION & ANALYSIS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

28. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND EXERCISE, INCIDENT or EVENT OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics Strategy Development & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive/Legislative, Media, Academic, Government & Public GUIDANCE: Oversight, Policy, Law & Doctrine INFORMATION & ANALYSIS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTCOME OUTCOME : Improved Performance, as observed during a “no notice” exercise or actual event, using standard and objective (to the degree practicable) assessment criteria. OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

29. PRE-Event POST-Event Increase Operational Capacity (OC)*Decrease Risk (R)* OUTPUTS: Risk Reduction Cycle Metrics MITIGATEPREPARE RECOVERPROTECT Prevention Mission: “DETER” Prevention Mission: “DISRUPT” *Capability Formula: EMC = OC – (R+X) *Emergency Management Capability [EMC] = Operational Capacity [OC] – (Risk [R] + Expectations [X]) RESPOND HURRICANE – Actual or Exercise OUTPUTS: Preparedness Cycle Metrics CHEMS Development & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive/Legislative, Media, Academic, Government & Public GUIDANCE: Oversight, Policy, Law & Doctrine INFORMATION & ANALYSIS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations INTEGRATED PLANNING SYSTEM (IPS) & CPGs ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS & GRANT PROGRAMS National Preparedness System National Mitigation System NATIONAL INCIDENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (NIMS) STAFFORD ACT RELIEF PROGRAMS & THE DRF National Response Framework National Exercise Program (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD BUILD CAPABILITY OUTCOME OUTCOME : Improved Performance, as observed during a “no notice” exercise or actual event, using standard and objective (to the degree practicable) assessment criteria. OUTCOME : OUTCOME : Reduced Risk, as measured using continuously improved national consensus standard methodologies for hazard, vulnerability and consequence assessment. OUTPUTS: Response/ Recovery Metrics OUTPUTS: Response/ Protective Action Metrics

30. So, what IS the relationship between the Comprehensive Emergency Management System and Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research? QUESTION:

31. In order to build emergency management capability, it is necessary to have consistent, credible, defensible, national-consensus standard methodology and calculation of RISK. Answer: In other words: “Capable of Managing What?”

32. DEPLOY CAPABILITY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISKINCREASE CAPACITYREDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION EVENT or Exercise RESPOND PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER RESPOND DEPLOY CAPABILITY INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public GOVERNANCE/GUIDANCE: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine INTELLIGENCE & ANALYSIS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations PROTECTION (RE)ASSESSMENTS & MEASUREMENTS Strategy & Process Planning RESPONSE BUILD CAPABILITY

33. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION BUILD CAPABILITY RESPOND PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY DEPLOY CAPABILITY INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PROTECTION PREPAREDNESS “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public GOVERNANCE/Guidance: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine ASSESSMENTS & ANALYSES: Capacity, Risk & Expectations Strategy & Process Planning RECOVERY RESPONSE INCREASE CAPACITY DEPLOY CAPABILITY EVENT or Exercise

34. DEPLOY CAPABILITY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISKINCREASE CAPACITYREDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION EVENT or Exercise BUILD CAPABILITY RESPOND PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY DEPLOY CAPABILITY INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PROTECTION PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY RESPONSE Strategy & Process Planning “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public GOVERNANCE/Guidance: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine ASSESSMENTS & ANALYSES: Capacity, Risk & Expectations

35. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Non-Adaptive Threat) HOMELAND SECURITY (Adaptive Threat) PRE-EVENT POST-EVENT REDUCE RISKINCREASE CAPACITYREDUCE RISK PREVENTIONMITIGATION EVENT or Exercise PREPAREMITIGATE PROTECTRECOVER DETERPREPARE DISRUPTRECOVER INCIDENT or Exercise Risk Reduction: Permanent Risk Reduction: Temporary Counter-Terrorism: Deterrence Counter-Terrorism: Disruption PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY “CUSTOMER” PERCEPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS: Executive, Legislative, Media, Academic & Public Strategy & Process Planning GOVERNANCE/Guidance: Policy, Strategy, Law and Doctrine ASSESSMENTS & ANALYSES: Capacity, Risk & Expectations PROTECTION DEPLOY CAPABILITY BUILD CAPABILITY RESPOND BUILD CAPABILITY RESPONSE DEPLOY CAPABILITY

36. The Components of Capability Measurement & Improvement: 1.The accuracy of the Risk Assessment for the hazard or threat; 2.The effectiveness of the efforts to reduce (or Mitigate) that risk; 3.The level of risk management ability – operational capacity, preparation, and the readiness to apply it (a.k.a. Preparedness) – relative to the residual (or “un-mitigated”) risk from the hazard or threat.

37. Summary: purpose of emergency management Manage Emergencies The purpose of emergency management is to Manage Emergencies with Emergency Management Capability Comprehensive Emergency Management System developed systematically through the Comprehensive Emergency Management System

38. Conclusion: The purpose of The National Hurricane Program Manage Hurricane Emergencies is to Manage Hurricane Emergencies with Hurricane Emergency Management Capability Hurricane Emergency Management Capability developed systematically through the Comprehensive Hurricane Emergency Management System