1. Air pollution and globalisation Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute Environmental Prediction into the Next Decade Technical WMO conference Incheon, Republic of Korea 17 November 2009

2. Megacity, Air quality and Climate: Observations and multi-scale Modelling Atmospheric composition analysis and forecasting Environmental impact incl health Regional and urban Air pollution analysis And prediction Global modelling And data assimilation Satellite and In-situ observations Scale bridging

3. Air quality issues – Air quality and health, – acidification, – eutrophication, – UV - enhancement, – surface ozone, – visibility impairment, – ecosystems exposed to toxic substances, – climate change - greenhouse gases and PM/CDNC – climate services – downscaling to high resolution – Emissions - estimation, validation, compliance

5. Per-capita NO x emissions 1940-2030 The US and Europe is ”greying”

6. IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7 p 535 Biogeochemical cycles S N CO 2, VOC, CO, CH 4 PM Globalisation: Local, regional, global cycles; S, N, VOC, PM are cycled locally/regionally but with global implications for atmospheric composition and climate BC

7. Claire Granier, CNRS Globalisation of economies and emissions

8. IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

9. Lelieveld et al., 2004

10. SO 2 emissions 10,00 MtS NO x emissions 5,92 MtN NH 3 emissions 5,08 MtN S dep 8,88 MtS 89% Oxidised N deposition 5,10 MtN 86% Reduced N deposition 4,99 MtN 98% Emissions and removal over Europe 2000 S and N EMEP Report 1/2003 S and N emissions in Europe are deposited inside Europe

11. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA) Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5, average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2000 2010 2020 Long range transport of air pollution – very long range transport

12. Anthropogenic sulfur emissions in Europe – from “black” to “grey”

13. Has this reduction affected temperatures over Scandinavia? If so, to what extent? Is this a coincidence, or actual relationship??? From HC Hansson, ITM, SU

14. [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] N = food; energy = N 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1850190019502000 Year World population and Agricultural surface 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Fertilizers and NOx World population milions Agricul. surface milions ha Fertilizer Tgr NOx emissions Carl Bosch Fritz Haber

15. Changes in NO 2 (from “grey” to “black”) Excellent agreement between SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 measurements Good agreement also with OMI in spite of time difference of measurements => if the same retrieval is used, satellites provide a very consistent picture A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. Heymann Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen FB1, Germany

16. Changes in SO 2 SO 2 columns show upward trend since 1996 Accelerating increase from 2001 Sharp decrease in 2008 / 2009 Nov. 08 volcanic A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. Heymann Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen FB1, Germany

17. Global anthropogenic NO x emission scenarios 2000-2100 Original SRES B2 IIASA ‘current legislation’ (based on B2 socioeconomics) Courtesy Markus Amann, IIASA SRES A2 IIASA CLE IIASA MFR IIASA CLE 2050 (+Climate Change) ACCENT Photocomp runs Royal Society runs (+Climate Change: T- and PAR-change influence on isoprene and lightning NO x emissions)

18. NOx in RCP8.5

19. Air pollution abatement strategies turn cities and regions from ”black” to ”grey” globally in particular outside of the tropics Even though fossil fuel consumption in cities, regions and globally increase as do the CO 2 emissions, the air pollution precursor emissions decline (SO 2, NO x, VOC, PPM) A global change from ”black” and ”white” to ”grey” everywhere in terms of air pollution. Climate change unabated

20. Thank you for the attention

21. Environmental impacts of air pollution GAINS estimates for 2000 PMEutrophicationOzone Acid, forestsAcid, lakesAcid, semi-nat. ecos. The greying of Europe

22. CO 2 emissions GtC/a

23. IPCC AR4 Summary for policymakers Climate change feedback on air pollution in the future

24. Model result: In Northern mid-latitudes, 35-65% of present-day surface O 3 originates from anthropogenic NO x, CH 4, CO and NMVOCs Assumes no change in biomass burning or soil NO x between 1750 and present Average of 5 model calculations STOCHEM-HadAM3 (Edinburgh), STOCHEM-HadGEM (UKMO), UMCAM (Cambridge), TM4 (KNMI), FR56C (O Wild)

25. The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite Nitrogen Dioxide: (requires separation from stratosphere) Formaldehyde Carbon Monoxide Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

26. Projected changes in JJA surface O 3 for three 2030 scenarios ACCENT models ensemble mean JJA surface O 3 changes 2000-2030 under three scenarios: IIASA CLE IIASA MFR SRES A2 Dentener et al., 2006 IIASA CLE IIASA MFR SRES A2 Mean of 20 models 25

27. Claire Granier, CNRS SO 2 emissions

28. EMEP MSCW 2009

30. [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] Remaining problem areas in 2020 Light blue = no risk Forests – acid dep. Semi-natural – acid dep.Freshwater – acid dep. Health - PMHealth+vegetation - ozoneVegetation – N dep. IIASA, Amann

31. Co- bene- fits of cont-rol of ozone pre- cursor emis- sions Environmental problem NO x controlVOC controlCH 4 control Combined control Human health NO 2 urbanLargeNegligible Large O 3 urbanMedium SmallMedium O 3 ruralMedium Large PMMediumSmallNegligibleMedium Biodiversity N depositionMediumNegligible Medium O3O3 Small Acidification and Eutrophication N depositionMediumNegligible Medium O3O3 Negligible Visibility PMMediumSmallNegligibleMedium O3O3 Small Climate change O3O3 MediumNegligibleMedium PM directSmallNegligible Small PM indirect (cloud)SmallNegligible Small Carbon sequestration N depositionMediumNegligible Medium O3O3