1. Case-Study : Use of satellite remotely sensed data integrated with livelihood information in support of food security monitoring and early warning in the Sool & Sanaag pastoral region of Somalia Gideon Galu (USGS/FEWS NET) (ggalu@fews.net)ggalu@fews.net Mohammed AwDahir (FEWS NET/FSAU) (mawdahir@fews.net)mawdahir@fews.net

2. Study Objective Demonstrate the use of satellite and available field information: Drought, Flood and Land-Cover Change Monitoring & its impact on Pastoral Livelihoods….

3. Justification Sool & Nugaal Pastoral Communities were at the brink of collapse…. (UN Inter-Agency Assessment Mission Report, 2003) This humanitarian crisis situation was linked to persistent drought affecting primary source of livelihoods of the local communities: transhumant pastoralism… (FSAU, 2001 & Horn Relief,2006) ……. seven failed rainfall seasons

4. Study Approach: Satellite + Field data inputs.. 1.Determination of Drought Severity, Extent and Cycle(s) NOAA/NDVI (1982-2004) and MODIS/NDVI WRSI/Rangeland products (NEW) CPC/Rainfall Estimates 2.Determination of Environmental Change and impact Landcover time-series change analysis (Landsat: 1986 - 2000) Human settlements and migration patterns Water points location and distribution 3.Impact assessment of the recent drought on livelihoods Affected populations Income-sources 4.Conclusion

5. Resources… + http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/ADDS http://www.fsau.org http://www.fews.net

6. Study Area : Sool & Sanaag Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

7. Food and Income Sources and Expenditure Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

8. Satellite are good at monitoring change… and NOT Absolute quantities….. Why Use Satellite Observation Trends?

9. NDVI Departure from Normal (%) : Drought Monitoring Threshold Source: USGS/FEWS NET and FSAU publication 1.10 year severe drought-cycle (1981/3,1991/3, 2001/3). 2.Short-lived recovery periods. 3.Drought threshold of NDVI % dep. ≤ -10% for at least 2 years.

10. 1996 – 2006 Rangeland/WRSI Anomalies (%) : Sool & Gebi Plateau Drought Monitoring Failure Normal Source: USGS/FEWS NET Complete to partial failure WRSI Anom ≤ 50%, is failure for at least 2 years

11. 1996/2006 Rainfall Performance : Sool & Nugaal From droughts to floods, a recurrent cycle? 2000: Brief Recovery Period El-Nino 1997/8: Severe floods, Disease, Livestock Trade Ban 2001/3: Severe Droughts; 7-Failed Rainfall Seasons 2005/6: Brief Recovery Period ? 2004: Severe floods Source: USGS/FEWS NET

12. 2001/4 Rainfall Performance : Sool & Nugaal Plateau From droughts to floods, a recurrent cycle? 1.Complete to partial rainfall failure from Gu 2001 - Deyr 2003 2.Drought threshold of RFE % dep. ≤ -50% for at least 2 years

13. Water is the most pressing humanitarian need…….. Source: USGS/FEWS NET and UN Inter-Agency Assessment Report (2003) Water Resource Monitoring Cost of water rose by 350%

14. Landsat : 1986 – 2000 Sool & Nugaal Plateau Negative Land Cover Change …using simple band differencing method done using satellite images of the area acquired in 1986 and 2000, almost 38% (22,550 Km 2 ) of the Sool Plateau has experienced negative change (RCMRD,2006) Negative change in vegetation cover Preliminary Analysis Results: The dominant land use / land cover types in this area are Shrublands, Woodlands, and Herbaceous Vegetation.

15. Proliferation of Water-points with MODIS/NDVI Background (Data Source: USGS/EDC, GTZ, SWIMS, SWALIM/Toposheet) Source: USGS/FEWS NET More Dense in the relatively drier parts of the region

16. Seasonal Livestock Migration Patterns (Data Source: FSAU/FEWS NET) Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

17. Estimated Population Distribution using Landscan (2005) (Data Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory-ORNL)

18. Environmental Study of Degradation in the Sool Plateau & Gebi Valley Supported by Oxfam Netherlands: NOVIB Confirms Land degradation possible due to: 1.Recurrent Drought & floods 2.Proliferation of water points 3.Increased Human settlements 4.Deforestation 5.Overgrazing Degraded prime grasslands of Bocooda Deforestation through charcoal burning at Galool (2005)

19. Impact on Livelihoods in 2001/3 oLivestock loss due to droughts/floods; 60 - 70% in 2001/3 oDecline in livestock sale prices; 60 – 70 % oDecline in milk production ; little/no oIncreased expenditure; water up by 350% oInability to recover due to absence of successive good seasons; o Recurrent disasters have a negative impact on coping mechanisms as they limit coping options; increased charcoal burning, remittances and debts. oEnvironmental degradation limiting the capacity of land to support livestock and other productive activity; oChange in livelihood systems or destitution due to disasters ?

20. Typical Year Environmental ‘Hazards’ HazardLivelihood effect Recurrent Drought Food stocks lost Income lost Markets lost FloodsLivestock lost Food stocks lost Effects of Hazards on Income sources Impact on Livelihoods? Recurrent Droughts and Floods undermine livelihoods… Land Degradation

21. CONCLUSION 1.Demonstrated potential use of freely available SRS and Field Information (LZ) in monitoring recurrent droughts, floods… 2.Potential wide application, in GHA pastoral regions.. 3.Need for long-term development initiative in these chronically food insecure areas..