1. 1 Planning Live Fire Test and Evaluation: Realism vs. the Law of Unintended Consequences James N. Walbert, Ph.D. Chief Scientist SURVICE Engineering Company June, 2011 UNCLASSIFIED

2. 2 TOPICS What does “Mission-Based” really mean? The “Building Block Approach” to LFT&E A Post-Shot Interview with an Anthropomorphic Simulator Parting Shots (Pun Intended) UNCLASSIFIED

3. 3 What does “Mission-Based” really mean? Sub-title: Give me the facts; all of them. UNCLASSIFIED

4. 4 Initial Conditions Component Damage Remaining Capability Mission, Task Mission-Based Test & Evaluation Damage? Capability Loss? Mission Degradation? UNCLASSIFIED

5. 5 Your child says “My arm hurts, so I’m not going to school today.” Your child says “I fell down, so I’m not going to school today.” Mission Readiness made simple: UNCLASSIFIED There are many possible paths (shortcuts)

6. 6 Your child says “I fell down and hurt my arm. My arm hurts so much that I won’t be able to concentrate, so I’m not going to school today.” Your child says “I fell down, so I won’t be able to concentrate, so I’m not going to school today.” Mission Readiness made less simple: UNCLASSIFIED Mission Readiness done properly:

7. 7 The “Building Block Approach” to LFT&E Sub-Title: What if I have both Legos and Lincoln Logs? UNCLASSIFIED

8. 8 Initial Conditions Component Damage Remaining Capability Mission, Task The Damage Correlation Process UNCLASSIFIED

9. 9 Medical Personnel Vulnerability UNCLASSIFIED Insult Injury Casualty Incapacitation Operational Medical

10. 10 Personnel Vulnerability UNCLASSIFIED Insult Injury Casualty Incapacitation

11. 11 Personnel Vulnerability UNCLASSIFIED Insult Injury Casualty Incapacitation

12. 12 Anthropomorphic Simulator Damage Correlation UNCLASSIFIED Insult Injury Casualty Incapacitation

13. 13 If you thought those were big leaps of faith… UNCLASSIFIED Insult Incapacitation Injury Casualty Personnel Component Non-Personnel Component

14. 14 Does “Correlation” mean the same thing as “Cause and Effect?” What Constitutes a “Full-Up” System? Is a Hybrid III a suitable substitute for the real component in a full-up live-fire test? UNCLASSIFIED

15. 15 UNCLASSIFIED Would DOT&E, Congress, and the media tolerate other component substitutions? How about a fuel tank that has “about the same shape and weight,” but with different materials and different responses to ballistic loading than the original? How about if that surrogate fuel tank were filled with water instead of diesel fuel? How about if we had correlation curves to compensate for the different materials and responses?

16. 16 A Post-Shot Interview with an Anthropomorphic Simulator Sub-Title: Do we have the “right person” for the job? UNCLASSIFIED

17. 17 Reporter: When the IED went off, did you have the proper sitting posture? Was your seat belt/harness tightened properly? Anthro: I don’t know – I have no memory. Reporter: What are your injuries? Where does it hurt? Anthro: What do you mean by “injuries” and “hurt?” Reporter: Well, can you still do your assigned tasks? Anthro: I have no “assigned tasks.” I couldn’t do anything before the shot, and I can’t do anything now. Reporter: It has been suggested that this event was worse than last week’s event. Is that true? Anthro: I just record events, I don’t judge them. UNCLASSIFIED

18. 18 Reporter: Do you think a human counterpart would have been injured had he or she gone through what you went through? Anthro: I have no idea. Reporter: You haven’t really answered many of my questions. Are you being evasive? Anthro: I was made for a different line of work. You’re holding me to a different set of standards. Reporter: Are you saying your data isn’t worth much? Anthro: Hey, look, you’re asking questions I wasn’t designed to answer. What do you expect? Reporter: So, your data really isn’t worth much! Anthro: I want to speak to my lawyer. UNCLASSIFIED

19. 19 The SAE data processing techniques for the Hybrid III are not satisfactory for analysis of ballistic impact data. Impulsive loads are those having a total duration less than the system response time. In order for a blast load to be considered impulsive, the product of the positive duration of the blast (t d ) and the fundamental vibration frequency of the system (F) must be less than or equal to 0.25* t d x F < 0.25 * Army TM 5-855-1 UNCLASSIFIED

20. 20 For 20lbs TNT @ 2 ft and a typical combat system, t d < 0.4 ms and F < 100, so t d x F < 0.25. For an automobile crash at 50mph, t d ~ 60-100 ms and F ~ 8-12, so t d x F >.25. The automobile crash is NOT an impulsive load. The IED event happens more than 100 times faster and with thousands of times more force than the automobile crash. UNCLASSIFIED

21. 21 UNCLASSIFIED Data from ballistic events has higher frequency content than data from automobile crashes…

22. 22 UNCLASSIFIED SAE (Butterworth) filters lack the narrow transition bands and flat pass bands necessary to analyze ballistic data.

23. 23 UNCLASSIFIED Equi-ripple Chebyshev filters are more appropriate for analysis of ballistic data.

24. 24 UNCLASSIFIED NHTSA DoD Rating Chance of Injury (%) 5 Stars <10 4 Stars 11-20 3 Stars 21-35 2 Stars 36-45 1 Star >46 Lack of anthro suitability for ballistic events has not stopped DoD from making higher demands on the data than do the automotive and insurance industries.

25. 25 Parting Shots (Pun Intended) UNCLASSIFIED

26. 26 Note to BETA (Ballisticians for the Ethical Treatment of Anthros) No anthropomorphic simulators have ever been injured or killed in the conduct of a live fire test. Anthros are the only components for which we have no damage or capability information (nor can we get that information). Use analytical methods appropriate for ballistic events when analyzing anthro data. Either develop an anthro suitable for DoD use, or try a rating system like that of NHTSA for “event survivability” based on probability of injury, not specific injury types. UNCLASSIFIED

27. 27 If we’re going to conduct Mission-Based Test and Evaluation, let’s do it properly! UNCLASSIFIED

28. 28 James N. Walbert, Ph.D. Chief Scientist SURVICE Engineering Company 3700 Fettler Park Drive, Suite 401 Dumfries, VA 22025 703-221-7370 jim.walbert@survice.com UNCLASSIFIED